Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Pocono – 5-Hour Energy 500 (Post Qualifying)
Have The Fords Lost Their Edge?
If you read my Practice Breakdown this week (click here if you didn’t), you probably noticed one thing out of the ordinary: Ford didn’t dominate the speed charts. Carl Edwards was the only driver to crack the top ten in Happy Hour, and he and his teammate, Greg Biffle, were the only two to find the top ten in the average speed chart. So, have the Ford FR9 engines lost their advantage? Pocono was the race last year (when Biffle won) that convinced me that the Roush-Fenway cars were back and could challenge for wins week in and week out, but by looking at the practice charts from Friday, I just don’t see a Ford winning this week. Could I be wrong? Certainly, but only two of the last ten races at Pocono have ended with a Ford in victory lane, so I like my chances on being right.
For the second week in a row, Kurt Busch was the fastest in qualifying and will lead the field to the green on Sunday. The entire starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle were the two drivers to visit victory lane at Pocono last year, and Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Burton all posted top ten finishes in both races during the 2010 season.
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Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The 5-Hour Energy 500:
1. Denny Hamlin – Starts 4th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
I learned back in 2006 that you should never go against Hamlin at Pocono, and that theory holds true to this day. He had a hiccup here in 2008 and 2009 and had finishes of 23rd and 38th, but if you take those away, Denny’s average finish in his other eight starts here is 2.6. Seriously. The #11 Toyota was third on the average speed chart and had the best ten-lap average during Happy Hour, so you know the car is fast. This should be the weekend that Hamlin gets his first victory of the season, but if he doesn’t a top five is virtually a certainty.
2. Tony Stewart – Starts 15th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
Tony Stewart was 4th on the average speed chart, which is really surprising because I don’t recall ever seeing “Smoke” rank that high on there. He starts 15th but has a good enough car to make his way to the front early, and Tony has notched top ten finishes in 10 of the last 11 Pocono races. Be prepared to see Stewart ranked near the top week in and week out (and hopefully on your fantasy rosters) because summer is right around the corner and that is when he really starts racing well.
3. Jeff Gordon – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’ve liked Jeff Gordon this entire week and the fact that he starts 3rd and was 6th on the average speed chart pretty much solidified my thinking that he will notch a top five finish this weekend. Gordon has four top 10 finishes in the last five Pocono races and has finished outside of the top 20 here just twice since 2004. As you probably remember, Gordon won at Phoenix earlier this season, the most recent flat track the Sprint Cup Series has visited.
4. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 14th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
I would have never guessed that “Five Time” would only have one win this far into the season (at Talladega too) but still be second in points. Over the past two years, Johnson has had the best driver rating of anyone at Pocono and three top 10s in those four races and a worst finish of 13th. In his career, Jimmie’s average finish at “The Tricky Triangle” is 9.6 and he does have two victories here, which both came in 2004. The #48 Chevrolet was 2nd behind Denny Hamlin in ten-lap average during Happy Hour.
5. Kurt Busch – Starts 1st – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m really liking how the Penske Dodges are running lately. Brad Keselowski won the race in Kansas last week while Kurt Busch had a great car all day and led the most laps before ending up 9th. Kurt will start from the pole on Sunday and while he does have three finishes outside of the top 30 in the last five Pocono races, the two other races ended with finishes of 6th and 9th for the elder Busch brother. Kurt did have to bring a back-up “Double Deuce” in Happy Hour after hitting the wall, but I was watching it closely and this car is just as strong as his primary car was. Busch has six finishes of 1st or 2nd at Pocono.
6. Carl Edwards – Starts 6th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: -1 spot. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Edwards ended up 8th in average speed, which is pretty good but still a little bit lower than Carl normally has been this season. No worries, though, he still has a fast Ford and will roll off the grid in the third row on Sunday. 50% of Edwards’ starts at “The Tricky Triangle” have ended in top 10s, and with the way his season is going, I don’t see Carl struggling on Sunday. Expect a solid top ten out of the #99 crew in the 5-Hour Energy 500.
7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 21st – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Junior is going to win a race here soon, and this race on Sunday could very well be the one. He starts 21st, but that is actually better than his average starting position this season. He topped the chart in average speed and had the third best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, so the #88 Chevrolet seems to be able to keep speed on the long runs, which I’m sure will be important on Sunday. Earnhardt, Jr. hasn’t had a top ten finish at “The Tricky Triangle” since 2008, but we all know to throw recent history out the window when it comes to Junior this season.
8. Clint Bowyer – Starts 12th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +4 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
They say that winning the Prelude To The Dream gives you a little boost for the next Sprint Cup race, and if that holds true, Clint Bowyer should have a solid outing on Sunday afternoon. He was just 14th on the overall average speed chart, but Bowyer came in at 6th in Happy Hour average speed, which was the practice that pretty much all of the teams were in race trim. Clint has finished outside of the top 15 just once in the past eight Pocono races, and while his average finish here is 16.4, I expect Bowyer to improve that on Sunday.
9. Kevin Harvick – Starts 32nd – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Harvick never qualifies very well, and while 32nd may be a little lower than he anticipated, he has started in the top 20 just once in the past seven Pocono races and three top five finishes and a worst finish of 24th. The #29 Chevrolet seems to have some speed, as Kevin ended up 9th on the average speed chart, but he will have to be careful when coming through all of the traffic toward the front of the field. If he’s not patient, Harvick can always do what he did to Logano last season I guess.
10. Ryan Newman – Starts 8th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: no change. — Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“The Rocketman” has just one top ten finish in the last eight Sprint Cup Series races, but I think he could change that this weekend. His teammate and owner is wicked fast, and Newman isn’t too shabby either, ranking 12th on the average speed chart. The #39 is usually a good pick on the flat tracks, and Newman finished 5th at Phoenix earlier this season. Newman has just one top 10 finish in the last five Pocono races, but he also hasn’t finished worse than 14th in that span.
11. Greg Biffle – Starts 37th – Yahoo! Fantasy A Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: -3 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The Biff is another driver that will need to be patient on Sunday. He has 36 cars to pass to make it to the lead, but the #16 Ford looked decent to me in practice and he ranked 2nd on the average speed chart. Do I think Biffle will win again? No, but he could challenge for a top ten. Biffle has the 6th-best average driver rating over the past two years at Pocono, but his win last fall was the first top ten for Greg since 2006.
12. Mark Martin – Starts 10th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: +2 spots. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Martin said they have a “really good car” but he says that every week so I’ve learned to just tune him out when he says that. He starts 10th and had the 6th best lap in Happy Hour, so there might be some speed in the #5 Chevrolet this weekend, but with the way his season is going, I think a top ten for Martin would be like a win for this team. I would wait to pick Mark until the Pocono fall race, thouhg, because he is on a four-race streak of top 10s during the Series’ second visit to “The Tricky Triangle”.
13. Juan Montoya – Starts 16th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: was on “Avoid” list. — Risk Factor: High Risk**
I told you to avoid him in my preview, but Montoya was 7th in average practice speed, and both him and his teammate, Jamie McMurray, were better than normal in qualifying. Juan has three top 10s in the last four Pocono races, and while I don’t see him finishing there on Sunday, it isn’t out of the question–just a top fifteen is more likely. As long as he doesn’t hit the wall, Montoya could have a good run tomorrow, or he could disappoint all of his fantasy owners (as usual).
14. Marcos Ambrose – Starts 7th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: wasn’t ranked. — Risk Factor: Extreme Risk**
I overheard someone on SPEED comparing Pocono with the new shift rules to a road course race, which made me immediately think of Ambrose. The Tasmanian ended up 19th on the average speed chart but qualified 7th, and Kasey Kahne had some good runs at Pocono when starting in the top ten. Am I saying Ambrose will score a top ten finish on Sunday? No, but he does have a 3rd-place effort here and he has surprised many this season at tracks where he isn’t expected to compete. This could be one of the riskiest picks of the weekend, but Ambrose does have potential (in my mind at least) to have a good run at “The Tricky Triangle” this weekend.
15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 20th – Yahoo! Fantasy B Group
–Average finish of this ranking in 2011 = to be calculated
**Change from my preview: was ranked “Just Outside The Top Fifteen”. — Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I don’t like going against any recent winner, and Keselowski is no exception. This weekend at Pocono has actually reminded me a bit of Kansas last weekend. Kurt Busch wins the pole, Keselowski qualifies in the 20s, but they both seem to have some speed. BK laid down the fourth-fastest lap in Happy Hour, and while one lap doesn’t mean much, he also had the 5th-best ten-lap average during that session, and believe it or not, Brad also had the 5th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour last week at Kansas. Like I said, kind of weird that this has been so similar for the Penske organization over the past two weeks.
Just Outside The Top Fifteen For The 5-Hour Energy 500:
Kyle Busch – I said in my preview that this isn’t near Kyle Busch’s best track, and that was very evident in practice as well as qualifying. “Rowdy” was 25th on the average speed chart and he will roll off the grid 34th on Sunday. I think he will make his way through traffic (it is Kyle Busch after all), but I just don’t see the #18 fighting for a top ten.
David Reutimann – Reutty was 10th in overall average speed and 5th in Happy Hour average speed, but he only ran 23 laps so it makes you question how many race runs they actually ran. He qualified 9th, and while I think he has the potential to score a top fifteen, I was informed that his team is concerned about the brakes as well as the transmission, so that brings up some major red flags. But you know what they say: high risk, high reward. David finish 15th and 17th at Pocono last season and his career best finish here came in 2009 when he ended up 3rd.
Regan Smith – When I saw that Regan Smith qualified near the front, I wrote it off as just another good qualifying effort that will ultimately turn into a terrible race run. But then I noticed that Smith was 13th in Happy Hour average speed and he finished 18th and 21st here last season. Is another win likely? No, but a finish between 15th and 20th isn’t out of the question from the #78 Chevy.
David Ragan – Ragan clocked in at 11th on the average speed chart and he will roll off of the grid 11th as well. He hasn’t been great at “The Tricky Triangle” in his eight starts, but David did finish 5th here in 2008 and brought the #6 Ford home 14th in the fall race last season.
Stay Away From These Drivers For The 5-Hour Energy 500:
Jeff Burton – There are many reasons I could tell you to keep Burton off of your fantasy rosters this week, but I’ll be short and sweet. He was just decent in practice, he starts 33rd, and he has yet to post a top ten finish this season. Don’t let the four top 10s in the last five Pocono races fool you.
Jamie McMurray – Jamie Mac is a regular on my “Avoid” list, if you haven’t noticed. He could pull off a surprise top fifteen on Sunday, but with the way his season has been going, that isn’t very likely. He starts 13th but McMurray’s average finish at Pocono is 21.7 and I think it’s more likely he will finish around there than his starting position.
Kasey Kahne – I just don’t see much speed in the Red Bull Racing Toyotas this weekend. Kahne starts 17th and I told you in my preview to pass on him this week if he doesn’t start in the top ten. This is me, once again, telling you to avoid Kasey Kahne this weekend at Pocono.
My (Tentative) Fantasy NASCAR Picks:
OnPitRow.com: Favorite – Denny Hamlin, Darkhorse – Jeff Gordon
Yahoo!: A-List: Denny Hamlin, B-List: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. & Ryan Newman, C-List: Sam Hornish, Jr.
NASCAR.com Fantasy Live: Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin, Juan Montoya, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Sam Hornish, Jr.
Racing4Glory.com “The Showdown”: Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, Juan Montoya, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
