Watkins Glen Heluva Good Sour Cream Dips at The Glen Fantasy NASCAR Preview and Picks
A= Really, Really Good Pick
Tony Stewart – After Watkins Glen there’s just four races before the Chase starts. This race is a “must win” in order to assure Tony Stewart will be in the Chase. Watkins Glen is Tony Stewart’s best track and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be the favorite heading into the weekend. At Watkins Glen since 1999 Tony Stewart has 5 wins and has only finished worse than 11th once. Since 2004 Stewart has finished either first or second every year except for 2010. (Yahoo A Driver)
Marcos Ambrose – In his three races at Watkins Glen Ambrose has finished either third or second. The worst he’s finished in a road course race where he didn’t have some sort of car problem is sixth. At Infineon earlier this year he finished 5th. (Yahoo B Driver)
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A- = Really Good Pick
Carl Edwards – Carl is a very underrated road course driver who will be below most people’s radar this week. Carl has five straight top tens at Watkins Glen and last year he started on the pole and finished fifth. At Infineon earlier this season he finished 4th. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kurt Busch – Busch won at Infineon earlier this year and last year at Watkins Glen he finished second. Kurt Busch has three straight top tens here. His driver rating earlier this year at Infineon was 142.6. (Yahoo A Driver)
Kyle Busch – Busch won at Watkins Glen in 2008. Busch has five straight top tens and five straight top ten qualifying efforts at the Glen. The last time he didn’t finish in the top ten here he was a rookie. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson has won at Infineon but I think he’s actually better at Watkins Glen. Last year he had a top ten car but he was involved in an accident. Jimmie Johnson has also been out testing his road course car so look for a strong performance out of the 48 team. At Infineon earlier this year he finished 7th. (Yahoo A Driver)
Denny Hamlin – Last season Hamlin was collected in the same wreck that took out Jimmie Johnson. That relegated him to a 37th place finish. In his four other starts he’s finished in the top ten every race. His best finish here is second. Hamlin’s also a pretty good qualifier here (7.8 average starting position). (Yahoo A Driver)
Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya is the defending champion and he absolutely dominated this race last year. He led 74 laps and was just .2 away from having a perfect 150 driver rating. The worst Montoya finished at Watkins Glen when he wasn’t involved in an accident is 6th. My concern about Montoya is that he’s really struggled lately. (Yahoo B Driver)
B+ = Good Pick
Kevin Harvick – Harvick is a former winner at The Glen. In 2006 he out dueled Tony Stewart for the victory. His win was far from a fluke. Harvick has five top tens and seven top fifteen finishes in 10 races here. At Infineon earlier this season he finished 9th and led five laps. You also can’t discount the fact that RCR cars have gotten good gas mileage when needed. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jeff Gordon – Gordon finished 10th last season but he really hasn’t had any success here since he won the championship. In 2001 he won but over the next nine years his best finish was 9th and he’s only accumulated two top tens. His average finish since his last win is 20.8. Gordon has four wins but as I pointed out things haven’t been good for him here lately. Earlier this season at Infineon he finished second but traditionally he’s better at that serpentine track. (Yahoo A Driver)
AJ Allmendinger – AJ has proven himself to be a steady road course driver. Last year he finished 4th at Watkins Glen and he’s never finished worse than 13th here. At Infineon he has three straight finishes of 13th or better. (Yahoo B Driver)
Ryan Newman – In Newman’s first start at Watkins Glen he finished second to Tony Stewart without power steering. Thing’s unfortunately for him haven’t been the best as of late though. Newman’s last top ten here was in 2006. However he did finish 12th and 13th in recent years. (Yahoo B Driver)
B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks
Matt Kenseth – Road course races are far from being Matt Kenseth’s strength but he’s been decent here lately. In the last four races here he’s finished 13th, 14th, 12th, and 12th. (Yahoo A Driver)
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer’s performances have been polar opposites between the two road courses. At Infineon his average finish is 11th and he’s finished 4th three times (finished fourth earlier this year). At Watkins Glen his best finish is 9th and his average finish is 19th. I would pencil him in for about a mid teens finish. (Yahoo B Driver)
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has been a sneaky driver at Watkins Glen. He has a sixth and fifth place finish, a 15th place finish and a 28th place finish. Earlier this year at Infineon he finished 8th. I will warn you he’s a pretty poor qualifier here. (Yahoo B Driver)
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski might have potential this week if he’s 90%. Watkins Glen should be a lot tougher on him physically then Pocono. At Infineon earlier this year he looked pretty sporty in the Blue Deuce and finished 10th. In his one career start at Watkins Glen he finished 20th.
Jamie McMurray – McMurray started second last season, led 5 laps and finished sixth. In eight career starts at the Glen he has five finishes of 16th or better. At Infineon earlier this season he started second and finished 15th. McMurray should be a teens finish driver or better this weekend. (Yahoo B Driver)
B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th
Kasey Kahne – This former Infineon winner has really struggled at Watkins Glen. His highlights here are his two 14th place finishes. He is consistent though. His 18.1 average finish is spot on. All of his finishes here are between 14th and 26th (7 races). (Yahoo B Driver)
Joey Logano – In Logano’s two starts at Watkins Glen he’s finished 33rd and 16th. Obviously that’s nothing great, but he did win the pole at Infineon and finish sixth earlier this season. In my opinion I consider Infineon to be the trickier of the two road courses. (Yahoo B Driver)
Greg Biffle – I know I’m not going to be picking Greg Biffle this week. He’s really struggled at this track throughout his career. In 2009 he finished 5th and in 2007 he finished 10th. All six of his other finishes here are 21st or worse. (Yahoo A Driver)
Mark Martin – At one point in his career Martin won three straight races at Watkins Glen but don’t let his awesome 8.3 average finish fool you. Since he’s come out of partial retirement his average finish between the two road courses is 22nd. In his two races at Watkins Glen since he’s been a full-time driver again his finishes are 23rd and 19th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Paul Menard – Menard has completed 100% of the laps run in his seven starts at Watkins Glen. Surely you would think he would have some level of success which I can boast about. Unfortunately he’s never finished in the top fifteen and his average finish is 23.9. At Infineon his level of success is about the same. His best finish there is 17th and his average finish is 24th. (Yahoo C Driver)
C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here
Brian Vickers – I think Vickers is good to finish somewhere around 20th on Sunday. His Watkins Glen average finish is 20.7 and his Infineon average finish is 22.7. In 2009 when he last raced here he finished 11th but he raced like Superman for a short stretch that season. He couldn’t do anything wrong (until the Chase started). (Yahoo B Driver)
Jeff Burton – How in the world could someone responsibly pick him. Last season he finished 9th but that was his first top ten at the Glen since 2002. At this point in the season 2002 that seems like the last time he had a top ten period. (Yahoo B Driver)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – A good day for Junior at this road course would be a 20th place finish. This race is a huge obstacle for his Chase chances. His best finish here since 2006 is 18th. At one point in his career he had three straight top tens but that was a long time ago. Junior also isn’t very impressive at the other serpentine track on the circuit. At Infineon earlier this year he finished 41st and had overheating problems. (Yahoo B Driver)
C =I’m Not Picking Them
David Ragan – Watkins Glen should be the last place you pick Ragan. In four races his best finish is 24th. He’s completed every lap here so his 27.75 average finish should be very troubling to you. Do not pick Ragan this week! In terms of driver rating he’s never even cracked 50. That’s pretty bad. (Yahoo C Driver)
David Reutimann – Reutimann has never finished better than 20th at a road course. At Watkins Glen his average finish is 27.0 and his average starting position is slightly worse 27.7. There’s a zero percent probability that I would flirt with the idea of using him. (Yahoo B Driver)