Scouting Report: Charlotte Bank of America 500
How to make an informed Fantasy Pick for Charlotte:
1) It’s very important to study what happened in recent intermediate track races. If a driver was good at Kansas and Chicagoland the chances are pretty good that they’ll be good at Charlotte. The geometry of Charlotte is different from the two but remember you’re a fantasy racer, not a crew chief.
2) At Charlotte I like to pick drivers who have momentum. Weird things happen and in my opinion it’s the second most volatile track in the Chase. My method for avoiding drivers who might potentially have problems is picking drivers with momentum.
3) There’s plenty of track history at Charlotte and it’s important to study. You don’t want to dig to deep into the history books though.
4) Practice is really important at Charlotte. There won’t be any practice sessions that simulate race conditions but you want to hear a driver say their car drives good and they have adjustablity built in.
5) Qualifying is always a plus to have but the best drivers always get to the front. Picking a driver who starts up front is an understandable tie breaker when it comes to picking drivers but don’t base your team on it.
Fast Five at Charlotte:
1) Jimmie Johnson – This track isn’t called Lowes Motor Speedway anymore but it’s still Jimmie Johnson’s house. In twenty races at Charlotte Johnson has six wins and fourteen top tens. Earlier this year Johnson finished 28th but I’m not the least bit concerned (engine blew up with about 5 laps remaining). Perhaps the most surprising thing is that he didn’t lead any laps. His failure to lead a lap snapped a 18 race streak of leading laps at Charlotte. Johnson has been exceptional at every intermediate track recently (Kansas -1st, Chicagoland – 10th, Atlanta – 2nd, Michigan – 2nd, Kentucky – 3rd) and he’ll unquestionably be the favorite in the Bank of America 500.
Charlotte Motor Speedway Stats:
- Six wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
- Average finish of 10.8 in 20 races
- Series-best Average Running Position of 8.2
- Series-best Driver Rating of 112.8
- Series-high 428 Fastest Laps Run
- 950 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
- Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 176.082 mph
- Series-high 3,917 Laps in the Top 15 (84.5%)
2) Matt Kenseth – In the Coca Cola 600 Matt Kenseth led more laps than anyone (103) and had the highest driver rating (124.4). His 14th place finish doesn’t truly reflect how good he was (6th place avg running position). In the last five Charlotte races Kenseth has been extremely consistent. His average finish is 8.4 and he’s raced in the top fifteen for 80.9% of the laps run. In 2000 Matt Kenseth won his first race at Charlotte.
Charlotte Motor Speedway Stats:
- One win, six top fives, 12 top 10s
- Average finish of 14.9 in 24 races
- Average Running Position of 15.3, eighth-best
- Driver Rating of 92.1, fifth-best
- 217 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
- 941 Green Flag Passes, eighth-most
- Average Green Flag Speed of 175.044 mph, ninth-fastest
- 2,892 Laps in the Top 15 (62.4%), fourth-most
3) Kyle Busch – In this years running of the Coca Cola 600 Kyle Busch finished 32nd (accident, led 55 laps). However in the seven previous races he had an average finish of 4.1 (best in the series) and his loop data numbers are in a league of his own (most laps led – 505, most points scored, best average running position – 6th, and best driver rating – 120.7).
Charlotte Motor Speedway Stats:
- Five top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
- Average finish of 17.7 in 15 races
- Average Running Position of 10.4, second-best
- Driver Rating of 106.5, second-best
- 362 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
- 879 Green Flag Passes, 13th-most
- Average Green Flag Speed of 175.935 mph, second-fastest
- 3,601 Laps in the Top 15 (77.6%), second-most
4) Carl Edwards – Edwards has only finished in the top ten once in the last six Charlotte races. In the global perspective of his career he’s had lots of success at Charlotte. His 13.3 average finish is a testament to that. It ranks as the 3rd best average finish in the series (since 2004). What I really like about Carl is his results at recent similar tracks (Kansas – 5th, Chicagoland – 4th, Atlanta – 5th, Kentucky – 5th).
Charlotte Motor Speedway Stats:
- Four top fives, seven top 10s
- Average finish of 13.3 in 13 races
- Average Running Position of 16.7, 12th-best
- Driver Rating of 86.1, 11th-best
- 99 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
- 1,019 Green Flag Passes, third-most
- 2,445 Laps in the Top 15 (52.7%), 11th-most
5) Kurt Busch – Last year Kurt Busch won the All-Star race and the following week he won the Coca Cola 600. He completely missed the setup in the fall race which was surprising (finished 30th). In this years Coca Cola 600 he finished 4th. His overall history is terrible at Charlotte but he’s arguably been the best 1.5 mile track racer in 2011.
Charlotte Motor Speedway Outlook:
- One win, five top fives, six top 10s
- Average finish of 19.7 in 22 races
- Average Running Position of 17.4, 14th-best
- Driver Rating of 85.1, 13th-best
- 171 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
- 2,487 Laps in the Top 15 (53.6%), 10th-most
To see my complete Charlotte Fantasy Rankings check out my Fantasy Preview
Top Non-Chase Sleeper for the Bank of America 500:
Kasey Kahne – Charlotte has always been a good track for Kahne. He’s a three time winner and he’s a master of the high line around the track. Earlier this year Kahne finished 22nd but he was much better than that. On the last restart of the race he restarted on the front row but as soon as the green flag waved he ran out of gas.
Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:
- Charlotte Bank of America 500 Pre Race Loop Data Book
- Box Score (loop data) from the Coca Cola 600
- Charlotte Driver Ratings
- Schedule of events
FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over The Last Five Races:
- Carl Edwards
- Kevin Harvick
- Brad Keselowski
- Kurt Busch
- Tony Stewart
- Jimmie Johnson
- Kyle Busch
- Matt Kensth
- David Ragan
- Clint Bowyer
COT Charlotte Race Winners:
- Kevin Harvick (2011)
- Jamie McMurray (2010)
- Kurt Busch (2010)
- Jimmie Johnson (2009)
- David Reutimann (2009)
- Jeff Burton (2008)
- Kasey Kahne (2008)