Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch has finished in the top five every other race at Homestead going back to his 2002 win (didn’t compete in 2005). Last year he finished 18th so he’s due for a good run. Busch has been one of the more successful intermediate track drivers this year but his performances have dipped a little bit in the Chase. When Busch has finished in the top five he’s always led some laps. When he hasn’t finished in the top five he hasn’t led a single lap.
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Denny Hamlin – Hamlin won this race in 2009 and in half his starts (6 total) he’s finished in the top three. Last season Hamlin finished 14th after starting 37th. In the 2010 finale he had an early minor accident with Greg Biffle and in the late phases of the race he got trapped a lap down because he pitted and then the caution flag came out. Hamlin has really struggled on the track in the Chase and for that reason I would be wary of picking him despite his overall record.
Clint Bowyer – This will be Bowyer’s final race at RCR before he departs for MWR. Homestead has been a good track for him and the 33 team. In four out of his five races he’s finished in the top twelve. One thing that’s notable about him despite his good finishes is that he’s only led 1 lap. Last season he finished 12th and had a 15th place average running position.
AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has the 4th best average finish in the series (8.7) and he’s finished 11th, 10th and 5th (2010) in his three races. Last year he had the sixth best driver rating (102.0) and the sixth best average running position (10.0). Homestead is a Ford track and Allmendinger will be a front runner who has sleeper qualities that fantasy racers can’t ignore.
Martin Treux Jr. – There’s a lot of tracks where you really can’t count on Treux but Homestead isn’t one of them. Since he’s been racing full-time in the series he has three top tens and a average finish of 7.6 (tied for fourth best). Last year he started 25th, led 62 laps and finished 11th. Truex is good at Homestead because he has the ability to run fast laps around the high line of the progressive banking.
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has raced three times at Homestead and has finished 23rd, 25th and 13th. Last season in his 13th place effort he started 18th and had a 18th place average running position. The magic may be fading but I still think he’s a “Front Runner”.
Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch had a top five car last year but according to Kevin Harvick “he was racing like a clown all day” and as a result he got punted (Yahoo race chart). In 2009 he finished 8th in the Ford 400. All of his prior results to 2009 were 19th or worse. Overall his average finish is 26.3. Personally I would be wary of picking him. The JGR engine durability issue is back with vengeance.
Marcos Ambrose – Out of all the drivers who I rank weekly Marcos Ambrose has the worst average finish (34.3). What I like about Ambrose is his equipment. RPM Fords will be fast this week and I believe Ambrose will unquestionably be a “Front Runner”. In 2009 before he had problems I thought he had the best car for the first 15 laps (Yahoo race chart).
David Ragan – Homestead is a Ford track and I think Ragan will fare better then he has in recent Ford 400′s. In his first race at Homestead he finished 10th but in the following three he’s finished 24th, 34th and 20th (2010). In the last two intermediate track races this season he’s finished 11th and 12th.
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