Brad Keselowski 2012 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2011 Stats: Points Finish 5th, 5 Wins, 10 Top Fives, 14 Top Tens, Average Running Position 14.8, Average Finish 14.8, Laps Led 298, Driver Rating 87.1
Strengths- Last year when Keselowski had momentum he was good everywhere. He was a force of competitive nature from his ankle injury through almost the rest of the season. Keselowski is the real deal but I would like to see more (thus why I graded him lower on some track types).
Last year in the final sixteen races he had the third best average finish and the second highest top five finish percentage (50%). Him and Tony Stewart were the only drivers to win multiple races in this portion of the season.
One notable strength of Keselowski’s is that he’s a consistent driver. When he beat Carl Edwards for the Nationwide title in 2010 it was because of his ability to avoid problems and come home with good finishes. I think he’s capable of doing the same thing in the Sprint Cup Series.
Weaknesses- The main question many have about Brad is can he do it again? In 2012 that question will be answered. One weakness that was present at times in 2012 was that Penske cars were clearly off their game at some races last season.
Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Last season in the “Blue Deuce” Brad Keselowski scored the 8th most points on this track type. What’s remarkable about this is that they weren’t that good on this track type at the start of the season and at many venues they could’ve easily scored more points (example: Coca Cola 600).
In the middle of the season Brad Keselowski was as good as anyone on this track type. From the early summer Kansas race to the fall Kansas race he had the best average finish in the series (7.1) and was one of only four drivers to finish in the top ten in all but one race (other drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards).
What I really like about Brad Keselowski and the #2 team on this track type is that their willing to take risks. Their not content to just play it safe. Last season many of the races on this track type turned into fuel mileage races and Keselowski is an ace at conserving his E15 fuel.
Flat Track Grade- B+, On the small flat tracks last season Keselowski ranked as the 18th best driver. In the Chase New Hampshire race he finished second and once again proved his prowess at conserving fuel. In the summer race he finished 35th but that’s quite deceptive. In that race he had a cut tire that ruined his day. Before his tire went flat he was running in the top three (Yahoo race chart).
Keselowski hasn’t had the best results at Phoenix. Three of his five finishes are in the high teens. Last season he finished 18th and 15th. In the fall race he had the 8th best average running position (10.5).
Last season on the big flats Brad had top tens at both venues. His big win on this track type came at Pocono in his first race after breaking his ankle. Just a week prior to his injury he finished 9th at Indy and led 17 laps.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, In 2009 Brad Keselowski won his first race at Talladega in his pre rookie year. In his six races at NASCAR’s biggest track he has four top tens. I like those odds. In these six races he has the sixth best average finish (15.0).
Daytona however hasn’t been as friendly to him. In the summer night race he finished 15th but all four of his prior finishes were 24th or worse. I think he’ll have better results this year.
Short Track Grade- B+, Last season Keselowski ranked as the 15th best driver on this track type. None of his results were that good in his first visit to any of the short tracks in 2011. In his second visit to these venues his performances were much better. In his second trip to Bristol last year he led 88 laps and visited victory lane. In his second go around to Richmond he finished a respectable 12th. In the second race at Martinsville he finished 17th but he was much better than that. He would’ve easily had a top ten finish but he was spun late (Yahoo race chart).
Road Course Track Grade- A–, His success on this track type was a big surprise last season. In 2011 he finished tenth at Infineon and and second at Watkins Glen with a broken ankle. At Infineon he was actually better than his 10th place finish (Yahoo race chart). Both Penske cars were superb at the serpentine tracks last year so there’s no reason to not expect strong showings again.
How to use Brad Keselowski from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2012? The key to using Brad Keselowski last year was to stick by him no matter what when he was hot. This year I would focus on using him at intermediate tracks, short tracks, big flat tracks, road courses and Talladega.
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