Texas Samsung Mobile 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Mid Pack” Projections
Marcos Ambrose – Last year at Texas Ambrose finished 6th and 11th. Other 2011 impressive stats of his were his 7.5 average running position (4th best) and 104.4 driver rating (7th best). Earlier this year Ambrose finished 13th at Las Vegas (1.5 mile intermediate track like Texas).
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Paul Menard – So far on intermediate tracks this year we’ve seen both good and bad out of Menard. The good was his 7th place finish at Las Vegas (92.2 driver rating). The bad was his 19th place finish at Auto Club Speedway (58.1 driver rating). In the last three races at Texas Menard has finished 10th, 5th, and 15th (Last fall).
AJ Allmendinger – The #22 team has been a disappointment to fantasy racers this year. At Las Vegas (only 1.5 mile race for Penske) Allmendinger was competitive (top six) until his first pit stop of the race (overshot pit box, lost all track position). After that his day was basically over. Later on in the race he had fuel system issues and was forced behind the wall twice. At Fontana he finished 15th. In the last five races at Texas Allmendinger has two top tens and sports a 13.2 average finish. I think it’s safe to project a 10th through 20th place finish.
Jeff Burton – In 2007 Jeff Burton became the first two-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway. Last fall Jeff Burton played the fuel mileage game, he led 24 laps but ran out of gas well before the last lap (finished 27th). In the 2011 spring race he finished 11th. Perhaps the most notable thing Jeff Burton has done at Texas lately was his 2010 Jeff Gordon incident. Remember that? If you don’t here’s the video. Picking Burton has it’s risks but I think the reward might just might be worth it. At Las Vegas (1.5 mile track like Texas) Burton finished 14th.
Jamie McMurray – At Las Vegas (1.5 mile track) McMurray finished 8th. At Auto Club he was having a mid teens performance but during the first round of pit stops his pit crew had problems installing lug nuts. One troublesome aspect about picking McMurray is his Texas track record. Since 2009 his best finish is 16th and his average finish of 27th.
Kurt Busch – I’m predicting Kurt Busch will be a mid pack driver in the Samsung Mobile 500. At Las Vegas he ran competitive for the first 40 laps before he got trapped on pit road and went a lap down (caution) (Yahoo race chart). Later on he crashed out. At Auto Club he didn’t have any unfortunate circumstances and finished in the top ten. He wasn’t a top ten driver though, he just choose not to pit at the end. Kurt Busch is a top tier elite talent at 1.5 mile tracks but unfortunately Phoenix Racing isn’t where it needs to be. At Texas Kurt Busch has one win (2009 fall race) and a 14.5 average finish. Last spring he finished 10th and led 50 laps.
Joey Logano -Logano hasn’t looked good at all on intermediate tracks this year. At Las Vegas he finished 16th (got lapped during a green flag run) and at California he finished 24th. Personally I don’t trust him on intermediate tracks. Last season he scored the 26th most points and only finished in the top ten once. His track record at Texas is nothing to brag about. He finished 4th in 2010 (in the midst of his career hot streak) but in his other six races he has a 29.7 average finish and has only ran in the top fifteen for 6.1% of the laps ran.
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Top Tier Elite > Front Runners > Mid Pack Projections > Drivers To Avoid