Denny Hamlin 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Denny Hamlin 2012 Stats: Points Finish 6th, 5 Wins, 14 Top Fives, 17 Top Tens, Average Running Position 10.7, Average Finish 12.8, Laps Led 1,226, Driver Rating 100.9
Strengths – Denny Hamlin is a short track and flat track master. He’s in the conversation for being the best driver in the series on both track types.
Weaknesses – Denny Hamlin has had a rough time as of late at road courses. His struggles aren’t for a lack of talent though.
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Intermediate Track Grade- A, Denny Hamlin ranks among the elite drivers in the series at intermediate tracks. Last season on this track type he scored the 7th most points and won two races. His wins were at Kansas (old track) and Atlanta. An observation for him on this track type is that the more worn and difficult the track is to drive the better. I expect big things out of Hamlin on this track type in 2013. I think Toyota will do the best job getting the Gen6 car fast our of the gate and his new teammate (Matt Kenseth) who specializes at intermediate tracks should also help.
Flat Track Grade- A, My long running Denny Hamlin fantasy mantra is “If it’s short or flat pick Hamlin”. Last year in the four races at the smaller flats he had two wins, led 444 laps and had a 1.5 average finish. If his crew chief didn’t make a crucial pit call mistake in the first New Hampshire race he would’ve won that event also.
You also can never count out Hamlin at the big flat tracks. At Pocono he’s many fantasy racers default pick. Indy is his sole flat track weakness. He has three top tens there but also three finishes of 22nd or worse. Last season he finished 6th.
Short Track Grade- A+, It’s a coin flip between him and Kyle Busch as to who’s the best short track driver in NASCAR. Hamlin is always a contender for the win at Martinsville and Richmond. For years I’ve said Hamlin was the best driver to never win at Bristol and when I stopped saying it last year he finally won! He also should’ve won the last two races at the other short tracks last year but those events weren’t trouble free for him. He had the dominant car at Richmond but that race didn’t play out traditionally because it came down to fuel mileage & luck with the weather. At Martinsville he could’ve really thumped the field but battery problems took away his chance of winning.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, Hamlin is good at restrictor plate racing but he doesn’t always get the best results. Last season he tied Paul Menard and Bobby Labonte for scoring the 9th most points on this track type. He finished 4th in the Daytona 500 but his other finishes were 23rd, 25th and 14th. In other recent years in terms of points accumulated he’s ranked 9th (2011) and 6th (2010).
Road Course Track Grade- B, Hamlin started off his career as a very good road course racer. I have faith in his road course abilities but I can’t ignore facts. His recent finishes have been really bad. In his first four races at Watkins Glen he finished in the top ten every race. In the last three races there he’s finished 34th or worse every time. His history at Infineon is pretty similar. In three of his first four races there he finished in the top twelve but in the last three he’s also finished 34th or worse every time. Hamlin has earned a B based on his ability.
How to use Denny Hamlin from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2013? In 2013 I would use Hamlin at short tracks, flat tracks and intermediate tracks.
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