Not so fast: Daytona 500
Jimmie Johnson – Since Jimmie Johnson won the 2006 Daytona 500 his results in the Great America Race have been dreadful. His average finish in the season opening event since 2007 is 33.5. That average finish ranks as the 39th best in the series in this span of races. The only driver with a worse average finish in this weeks content in the Daytona 500 is Danica Patrick and she’s only been in this race once. Last year at Daytona Jimmie Johnson had terrible luck. He crashed on lap #2 in the Daytona 500 and in the July race he crashed into the inside wall. Last season on plate tracks Jimmie Johnson had a best finish of 17th (wrecked coming to the finish at Talladega) and an average finish of 32.5. (Yahoo! A Driver)
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Ryan Newman – Ryan Newman has really struggled at Daytona since he won in 2008. Following his win he had eight consecutive finishes of 20th or worse with a 27.3 average finish. Last summer he finally broke that dreadful streak and finished 5th. His record of misfortune at Talladega is pretty similar. Last October he finished 9th but before that he had six straight finishes of 23rd or worse. As a fantasy NASCAR rule of thumb I would avoid Newman at plate tracks. He hates them and they appear to reciprocate that sentiment for him. (Yahoo! B Driver)
Jamie McMurray – McMurray might be a popular mid tier pick. He won the Daytona 500 in 2010 and half of his wins have come on this track type. The problem with McMurray though is that the risk of picking him outweighs the reward. Since 2007 McMurray has two wins here but those also happen to be his only top tens. In these twelve races his 21.8 average finish ranks as the 25th best in the series. (Yahoo! B Driver)
Marcos Ambrose -Daytona hasn’t been a good track for Ambrose. He has one top ten and a 24.1 average finish. Since his top ten in 2009 he’s finished 30th or worse 66% of the time. At the other restrictor plate track he hasn’t fared much better. At Dega he finished 4th in his first start but since then he only has one top fifteen finish and a 28.1 average finish. I would recommend you avoid Ambrose because there’s no need to get your season started off in a hole. (Yahoo! B Driver)
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David Ragan – David Ragan would’ve won the 2011 Daytona 500 but he jumped a late restart which sent him to the back of the pack. He redeemed himself later in the year though by winning the 2011 summer race. If you’re in an allocation league this would be a good week to use David Ragan. Plate racing is his specialty and his fantasy value on other tracks types is non-existent. Last season he only had two finishes better than 20th and they both came on this track type. In the spring Talladega race he finished 7th and in the fall he finished 4th. Last year in the Daytona 500 Ragan finished 43rd and was involved in Jimmie Johnson’s lap #2 wreck. (Yahoo! C Driver)
Michael Waltrip – Michael Waltrip will be competing in the Daytona 500 but it’s important to note he won’t be in an MWR car. He’ll be in the #30 Swan Racing entry. This will hurt his fantasy value in my eyes because this isn’t a competitive team. Last year when he drove the #55 at plate tracks he looked pretty good. In the Daytona summer race he finished 9th and he had strong showings in both Talladega races despite where he finished. One positive for him in this race is that he’ll be reunited with Tony Eury Jr. (Yahoo! C Driver)
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Danica Patrick – Last season at Daytona Danica Patrick made her series debut. It was a short one because on lap #2 she was involved in the Jimmie Johnson wreck. This sent her to the garage and lead to a 38th place finish. In the Nationwide Series she didn’t fare much better. Her finishes in the lower series last year were 38th and 31st. I see no reason to expect much out of Danica Patrick. Even when she has a good race in the Sprint Cup Series she’s found problems. Although she’s starting on the pole that shouldn’t be a big deal for fantasy racers. Carl Edwards started in that position last year and didn’t even lead a lap. (Yahoo! C Driver)
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