Watkins Glen CHEEZ-IT 355 Round Table brought to you by FantasySportsDebate.com
Who will win the Watkins Glen CHEEZ-IT 355 at the Glen?
Dan Beaver (@FantasyRace) : Hands down, Marcos Ambrose has to be the favorite. With a worst finish of third in five races and back-to-back wins at the Glen, no one comes close to putting up the same numbers. Watkins Glen takes more aggression and fearless abandon than Sonoma and Ambrose cut his teeth in the wild and wooly V8 Supercars. That said, Brad Keselowski has to be an interesting driver to watch this week. His back-to-back second-place finishes at the Glen are no fluke, and like Ambrose he will drive his car far enough into the corner to see Elvis.
Erik Allen (@PitRho) : I think there are a lot of equally good options this week, and no dominant favorite. I could see any of the 48, 18, 9, 56, 2, 15, or 24 win without being surprised. And really, who saw Martin Truex Jr. taking home the victory at Sonoma?
Kyle Wiseman (@Kwiseman33) : I like Kurt Busch this week. He just has too win one soon right?
David Rochester : (@DR_FNP) : This weekend will be another version of “The Rowdy Show”. Over the last two trips to The Glen Kyle has an average starting position of 1.5. Over that same span his average running position during the race is a remarkable 2.5. Rowdy wins the pole, leads the most laps and wins the race.
Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) : Give me Kurt Busch. I pegged this guy as not even in the top 20 before the season and this team looks like they could surprise people and challenge in the Chase (yeah I said it).
Travis Rowe (@GoProsFS24) : Marcos Ambrose has finished inside the Top 5 every time he’s raced at Watkins Glen in the Sprint Cup Series, including victories in the last two races there. He also has two wins in two starts in the Nationwide Series. I like those odds.
Ryan Rantz (@ifantasyrace) : Look for Kyle Busch to win at Watkins Glen. He’s had the best car the last two races here and he’s been extremely consistent. If there wasn’t oil on the track last year he would’ve won by a couple of seconds.
PJ Walsh (@FNPNASCAR) : Second that. Kyle Busch wins the pole and the race in dominant fashion.
How much fantasy weight does a drivers Infineon performance have on you fantasy wise for the CHEEZ-IT 355 at the Glen?
David Rochester : Generally the same group of 8-10 guys will perform well at both road courses but these tracks are vastly different. Those guys whom perform well on road courses have that success because of the style of racing not because these two tracks have specific correlations. Watkins Glen is faster but also requires a balanced car and supreme braking. I won’t be using any data from Infineon when making my rosters selections for Watkins Glen.
Travis Rowe : Yahoo Fantasy Auto Racers have the luxury of analyzing two practice sessions worth of data before their rosters lock this week. Personally, I’ll be placing a greater emphasis on the speeds drivers are posting on Friday than where they finished at Sonoma.
Jordan McAbee : I don’t stray away from an elite group of drivers whenever the series stops at a road course. I’ll only look at Infineon results as a tiebreaker of sorts if needed.
Erik Allen : In this post: http://pitrho.com/2013/pit-rho-study-towards-defining-track-type/ we looked at the similarities between track types. The correlation between performance at Infineon (“spr”) and Watkins Glen (“wgi”) is good, but nowhere near as similar as Phoenix and New Hampshire, for example. I’d weight this season’s race at Infineon about as equally as last season’s race at Watkins Glen.
Kyle Wiseman : With two free practices Friday before lockdown, absolutely no reason to go by anything other than practice speeds.
Dan Beaver : Less than one might think. In the past two years, sweeping the top 10 on both road courses has been difficult. In 2012, only two drivers swept the top five and four swept the top 10. In 2011, one driver swept the top five and even though six earned top-10s on both, that is not as impressive as one might imagine on this type of track.
With Denny Hamlin finishing 43rd at Pocono and having a 29.4 average finish over the last seven races would you pick him next week if the series was visiting the venue you view as his best track? If not what would it take for you to pick him again in the future?
Travis Rowe : Value is a tricky thing in fantasy sports, especially in ESPN Stock Car Challenge. Hamlin has had every opportunity to outperform his current salary cap value, but unfortunately the fantasy owners investing in him (myself included) have been getting less than what they paid for. It’s time to cut your losses and move on.
Ryan Rantz : I wouldn’t pick Denny Hamlin no matter where the series is racing. Momentum is a very powerful force in fantasy racing and he has what I call “negative momentum”. In order for me to pick him I need to see him have a solid month first.
Kyle Wiseman : At this point no. He wouldn’t even make my team at Richmond or Martinsville. Pocono is one of his best and we all know what happened there.
Dan Beaver : One would be hard-pressed to place Hamlin on a fantasy roster at Martinsville in a late model stock car race at the moment. Momentum is a powerful force even though it is unpredictable and Hamlin has completely lost his. This team is still swinging for the fences and the desperation that went into a setup that blew a tire at Pocono is becoming part of the culture in the No. 11.
To get back into the top five, he is going to have to score some top-10s and then run with the leaders for most of an afternoon—and then have a little luck on his side. His next win is not going to come in dominant fashion; he’s going to have to work his way back up the ladder.
Erik Allen : Nope, never. Hamlin and the 11 team are struggling right now, and it seems likely that back pain is still affecting Hamlin. What Hamlin has done at Watkins Glen in the past has less relevance because of where that team is today.
A couple of good starts in a row from Hamlin and I would quickly change my tune.
David Rochester : In an allocation game like Yahoo where Hamlin is place with the top tier guys like Johnson, Kenseth & etc. Hamlin shouldn’t be considered.
The only way I’d consider using Hamlin is in a salary cap type format where is cost should have him ranked near the bottom.
He then becomes a value type pick. His cost should be comparable to guys in lesser equipment; thus the value.
Jordan McAbee : It’ll take a string of good runs (and finishes) by him for me to even consider Hamlin.
Should Denny Hamlin continue racing this year or should he call it a season and do whatever he needs to do to get healthy for 2014?
Kyle Wiseman : I think he’s as healthy as he’s going to get. The 11 team need to race and prepare for next year.
David Rochester : Denny has taken a few big blows since returning from his time off due to his injuries with no further damage.
If in the JGR brass, I use the #11 team as a full fledged test team each and every week. You’ve got two other cars right in the thick of the championship mix who stand to benefit greatly. Not to mention the results/data will carry over to 2014 and beyond.
They could try out of the box setups during practice and target hitting on something out of the box.
The other teams in the Chase mix don’t have this time or luxury.
This could prove to be beneficial in the short term (the same race weekend) or more long term (2014).
Jordan McAbee : I’m on board with what David said. Hamlin has no chance at the Chase and probably not another win. Isn’t he going to need to do something with the back in the off season anyway? Do it not and work on getting stronger. And maybe find a new crew chief.
Erik Allen : He should be getting healthy for 2014. At this point, there are at least three drivers who will finish ahead of him in points that have at least one victory under their belts. His chances of making the Chase are virtually zero. Come back strong next year and make a run at the Championship when the Hendrick cars don’t look so stout.
Travis Rowe : At this point, the risk is greater than the reward. If I was Denny, my focus wouldn’t be on winning any races in 2013. I’d be asking Coach Gibbs to help me develop a game plan for getting healthy so that we could contend for multiple championships down the road.
Ryan Rantz : I think Denny Hamlin should pack it up and get healthy for 2014. NASCAR is a business but his game is over this season. I think it would be better for business in 2014 if he was 100%.
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Round Table Contributors Websites:
Dan Beaver : NASCAR.com, Yahoo.com
Erik Allen : PitRho.com
Kyle Wiseman : FantasyNASCARPreview.com
David Rochester : FantasyNASCARPreview.com
Jordan McAbee : FantasyRacingOnline.net, ifantasyrace.com
Travis Rowe : GoProFantasySports.com, LateRoundQB.com, FantasyTrade411.com
Ryan Rantz : ifantasyrace.com
PJ Walsh : FantasyNASCARPreview.com