Kurt Busch 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview

2013 Stats: Points Finish 10th, 1 Pole, 0 Wins, 11 Top Fives, 16 Top Tens, Average Running Position 14.3, Average Finish 14.7, Laps Led 448, Driver Rating 92.97

Strengths- Kurt Busch is a versatile driver. He’s capable of winning on any track type.

Weaknesses- He’s had a lot of tough luck on restrictor plate tracks recently and Martinsville is an annual disaster.

NASCAR 2014 Printable Schedule

Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Kurt Busch is a tremendously talented intermediate track driver. Last year in the 78 car it’s somewhat surprising he didn’t win a race because he was so competitive. On these tracks last season minus the races he had problems (Texas #1, Michigan #1) he had a 10.7 average finish and a 13.7 average running position. In 2014 I think there’s a possibility he’ll take half a step back on these venues because intermediate tracks haven’t been a strength for Stewart-Haas Racing.

Flat Track Grade- A-, Kurt Busch is a talented flat track driver. He has strong fantasy value at both the big flats and the small flats. Indy is his lone weakness on this track type. He’s not necessarily bad there but he is mediocre. Since 2004 he has a best result of 10th and has finished between 10th and 14th five times.

At Pocono Kurt Busch could easily find himself in victory lane in 2014. He’s won there twice and has finished in the top five 40% percent of the time. Last season he had results of 3rd and 7th. In his last five Pocono races he’s finished in the top three 60% percent of the time. Also when evaluating Kurt Busch on big flat tracks keep in mind how strong Stewart-Haas Racing as an organization has been on these venues. Former Stewart-Haas Racing driver Ryan Newman scored the most points in the series on the big flats in 2013.

Kurt Busch was strong on the small flat tracks in 2013. I expect that trend to continue this upcoming season. At New Hampshire last year he had the dominant car in June. He started 2nd, led 102 laps but was taken out in a late accident. In the Chase New Hampshire race the 78 team changed up what worked for them and they finished a lack luster 14th. New Hampshire has historically been a good track for Busch. He’s a three-time winner and has finished in the top ten 42% percent of the time.

Busch has been relatively successful at Phoenix since it was reconfigured. He nearly won the inaugural race and he performed well in the other races given the circumstances. In the last two fall Phoenix races he has results of 5th and 8th.

Short Track Grade- B, If it wasn’t for Martinsville Kurt Busch would have an A on this track type. Unfortunately Martinsville is a glaring hole on his resume. He won there early in his career (2002) but his most recent top ten was in 2005. His Martinsville career average finish is 21.5. The best case scenario for him in 2014 would be a teens finish. I don’t expect a change of employer to have any significant impact on his performance. I’m pretty sure the problem is him.

At Richmond Kurt Busch is poised to be a serious contender this upcoming season. In 2013 he was very impressive there. He had results of 2nd and 9th, had the best driver rating, best average running position and led 109 laps. Last fall in Stewart-Haas Racing equipment Newman had the race won if Clint Bowyer didn’t spin on purpose.

Bristol is Kurt Busch’s traditional best short track. He’s won there five times and has finished in the top ten 54% percent of the time. Last spring at Bristol he had problems in the race but still finished 4th. In August he started 2nd, led 54 laps but had problems in the race and finished 31st.

Restrictor Plate Track Grade- A-, I’ve said this for a couple of years now but Kurt Busch is still the best plate racer who’s never won a points paying race. He has the talent to get the job done but a win just hasn’t materialized. Recently he’s been very susceptible to finding trouble on these tracks. I would call him a high risk prospect but his grade is based on his talent with a side of warning. If I were to grade him based on his recent plate track performances I would probably give him a C+.

Last season on this track type he had one top ten and a 20.5 average finish. His lone top ten was in the summer Daytona race. Prior to that race Busch had three consecutive finishes of 28th or worse there. From a career perspective at Daytona he’s finished in the top ten 50% percent of the time.

At Talladega last season Kurt Busch finished 18th and 30th. His 18th place finish in the fall tied his best Talladega result over the last seven races. One strength of Busch’s at Talladega is leading laps. He’s led laps in the last 11 races. Despite his lack of recent success at Talladega he’s still finished in the top ten 50% percent of the time. At one point in his career he had seven consecutive top ten finishes.

Road Course Track Grade- A, Kurt Busch is a supremely talented road course racer. He’s capable of winning at both venues. Last season at Infineon he could’ve potentially won the race but he had pit road problems not once but twice. Typically on road courses that’s a death sentence. He had a fast car though and he still managed to finished 4th. His next two most recent Sonoma results are 3rd (2012) and 1st (2011).

At Watkins Glen as long as he doesn’t have problems he’s a lock for a top ten. In his last five lead lap finishes (races he didn’t have problems) he has a 7.8 average finish. Last season he finished 9th.

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