Matt Kenseth 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2013 Stats: Points Finish 2nd, 3 Poles, 7 Wins, 12 Top Fives, 20 Top Tens, Average Running Position 8.4, Average Finish 12.1, Laps Led 1,783, Driver Rating 110.87
Strengths- Matt Kenseth’s best days will be on intermediate tracks, flat tracks, plate tracks and short tracks.
Weaknesses- Road courses are still a weak spot on the schedule for him.
Intermediate Track Grade- A, Matt Kenseth was the best default fantasy NASCAR pick on this track type in 2013. On these venues last year he had 5 wins, the best driver rating, a 7.6 average running position and a 8.2 average finish. He could’ve had even more wins at these venues but his season wasn’t incident free on this track type. On intermediate tracks Kenseth has won at every track except Atlanta. That’s pretty impressive in my book. From a career perspective these tracks have long been Kenseth’s best track type.
In 2014 I expect him to be good once again but I think his level of performance will drop off a little bit. I think it was slightly inflated by the Gen 6 car. No team was better than JGR when it came to development of the Gen 6. In NASCAR no team can stay ahead forever and in 2014 I think the competition will catchup some.
NASCAR Printable 2014 Schedule
Flat Track Grade- A-, Kenseth had a solid season on flat tracks in 2013. On these tracks he had a 13.1 average finish, 11.1 average running position and scored the 9th most points.
On this track type Kenseth was at his best on the short flat tracks. In the first three races on this sub track type he was extremely impressive. In those races he had 1 win (New Hampshire), a 5.7 average finish, 6.3 average running position and led 139 laps. The fall Phoenix race should be overlooked for fantasy purposes in 2014. Kenseth isn’t a clutch performer and that was bound to happen at some point in the Chase.
Kenseth was deceptively bad at Pocono last season. In June he finished 25th but had top five potential. In the last quarter of the race he was running in the top five but had contact with Tony Stewart which dropped him deep in the running order. In August he likely had a good car but had multiple problems in the race. He got a speeding penalty and late in the race he was spun from about 10th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 22nd.
Kenseth’s going to win at Indy someday. He’s been a contender for a few wins there and as long as he doesn’t have any problems he’s a lock for a top ten result. In 2013 he finished 5th. At Indy he’s finished in the top five 43% percent of the time and in the top ten 57% percent of the time.
Check out these driver previews: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Short Track Grade- A, Matt Kenseth’s change of employer really helped him on this track type. Prior to joining Joe Gibbs Racing he was only a threat to win at Bristol. Now he’s a contender at all three venues. In 2013 he scored the 2nd most points on this track type.
Bristol has long been Kenseth’s best short track. In August he got his third win at Thunder Valley and led 149 laps. In that race he was lucky Kahne was his competition and not somebody who would move him out of the way. In the spring race at Bristol he was once again a contender but while he was running in 2nd Jeff Gordon had a flat tire and Kenseth got collected in the carnage. In the spring he led 85 laps. Over the last five Bristol races he’s averaged leading 82.8 laps per race. At Bristol Kenseth has a 12.5 average finish and has had a top ten result 64% percent of the time.
Kenseth had a career year at Martinsville in 2013. Prior to last season he only led 73 laps. Last season he led 298 laps. In the fall he finished 2nd to Gordon and led 202 laps. If he had more experience leading in traffic there he could’ve won the race. In the spring he led 96 laps and finished 14th. In that event his car was better than his result. In the closing laps he went from 7th to his eventual finish.
At Richmond Kenseth had his best season in a long time. In the spring he won the pole, led 140 laps, had the best driver rating and finished 7th. In the fall he finished 6th. I would look for Kenseth to once again have good results there in 2014.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- A, Matt Kenseth is as good as they come on plate tracks. He’s a master at the art of drafting and leading the pack. In 2012 on this track type he scored the most points, won twice, had a 2nd place average finish and led nearly a third of the laps.
Last season on this track type Kenseth wasn’t as successful. He was primed to win his third Daytona 500 but while he was leading in the last quarter of the race his engine blew up. Before it went up in smoke he led 86 laps. In the summer Daytona race his car wasn’t as strong but he was a top ten contender. In that race he got swept up in Denny Hamlin’s accident. At Daytona Kenseth has finished in the top ten 46% percent of the time.
Kenseth had strong cars at Talladega last season. In the fall he finished 20th and led 32 laps. In the race he was better than his result. He likely would’ve finished around the top ten but he was a driver who looked to make moves at the end of the race and as a result the move he made was towards the back of the pack. In spring 2013 Kenseth dominated much of the race. He led 142 laps, had a 2nd place average running position but he got shuffled out of the lead at the end of the race. In 2012 he had results of 1st and 3rd.
Road Course Track Grade- B, Road courses aren’t Matt Kenseth’s thing but he’s not as bad as many think he is on this track type. Last season at Watkins Glen Kenseth finished 23rd. Prior to that event he had six straight results between 8th and 14th. In fourteen Watkins Glen races he has a 15.6 average finish and has completed every lap but one.
Infineon hasn’t been as friendly to him. Last season he finished 19th. In the race he performed better than his result. In the last third of the race he spent significant time in the top ten but at the end while he was on old tires he lost a tremendous amount of track position quickly. His next two most recent Sonoma results are 13th and 14th.
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