Richmond 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Federated Auto Parts 400

One Last Chance

If it hasn’t been drilled into your head 100 times already, it probably will be during the race broadcast on Saturday night: this is the last chance for those on the outside of the Chase looking in to punch their ticket to NASCAR’s playoffs. For us fantasy people, that might shake things up a bit; on one hand, many drivers might be “going for broke” and we could see tempers flare–which typically wreaks havoc on rosters–or we might get an overall calm race in with a finish as expected. However, with it being a Saturday night short(er) track race, I’d bet we see more than a few cars wrecked during the Federated Auto Parts 400. As far as practice goes this weekend, NASCAR held a 3-hour long session in the morning on Friday followed by a 1 hour, 20 minute Happy Hour in the afternoon. Translation: the cars were on track in conditions that aren’t even close to what the race will be like. For those results, however, click here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, here’s our notes for each: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Brad Keselowski won the pole in qualifying on Friday and will lead the field to the green on Saturday night. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Federated Auto Parts 400:

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11. Greg Biffle – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I had The Biff ranked pretty high in my Pre-Practice Rankings this week (9th), but it’s always hard for us to handicap the Roush Fenway teams after practice because they never make any long runs. It’s actually pretty annoying. So, we have all this data for most of the other teams and pretty much nothing to go off of for the #16, #99, and #17. Oh, well. Biffle was 11th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday morning and ended up 10th-fastest overall in Happy Hour. What I liked about him most coming into this weekend was his momentum; only Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick have better average finishes than Biffle over the last six Sprint Cup races. With his 10th-place effort at Atlanta last weekend, Greg now has five straight top 10 finishes in Cup action, and will be looking to grab another (and a Chase berth) here at Richmond on Saturday night. Over the years, however, Greg has been a teens driver here at RIR. He ended up 9th here back in 2012 but that’s his only top 10 at this track since the 2006 season (15 races). On a positive note, he has seven top 15 finishes over that span, so he seems to be right on the verge. This team practiced in race trim to start out Happy Hour on Friday and Biffle said the car was “really good.” I like when drivers don’t have many bad things to say about their car on a race weekend, and that seems to be the case with the Roush-Fenway duo of Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards this weekend. I’m expecting a near top 10 result (or better) out of both.

12. Denny Hamlin – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th (change: -2)
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

These Joe Gibbs Racing teams, I tell ‘ya… They’re all searching for speed, as none of them looked good on Friday, but this organization is so good at Richmond that I’m going to overlook that a little bit. Plus, Denny Hamlin has some good mojo going right now; after his 3rd-place effort at Atlanta last weekend, Denny now six top 10s in the last eight Sprint Cup races. Historically, RIR has been one of his best tracks, and his 9.8 career average finish here ranks 2nd among active drivers, right behind teammate Kyle Busch. Hamlin has visited victory lane twice at Richmond–the most recent time in 2010–but hasn’t sniffed the top 10 here since the April 2012 event. I think that could change on Saturday night, though. As I said, practice was great for these teams, but here’s how Denny fared: 16th in ten-lap average in Practice #1 with the 15th-fastest lap and then 19th on the overall speed chart in Happy Hour. Optimistically I want to say that the racing being at night will help this team, but it’s probably a coin flip on whether or not they finish up front in the Federated Auto Parts 400. It feels like a boom or bust weekend for this #11 team.

13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th (change: +4)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Hey, what do you know, this #1 team has put together a good string of runs here as of late, with the 4th-best average finish in the series over the last six races (12.5). Jamie hasn’t finished worse than 14th since Indianapolis in July, where he ended up 20th. Richmond hasn’t been the best track for Jamie Mac–his career average finish is 22nd–but he’s shown a lot of speed this weekend and I’m not going to ignore that. McMurray also finished 4th in this event one year ago and ended up 13th here back in April. The #1 Chevrolet was 8th on the speed chart in Practice #1 and had the 3rd-best ten-lap average during that session as well. Then, in Happy Hour, Jamie posted the 4th-fastest lap while in qualifying trim. Like I said, he has speed this weekend, and now he just needs to bring it home. I view the #1 as a great sleeper pick this weekend, and keep in mind that Jamie has finished 14th or better in four of the last six races here at Richmond. Keep your eye on that Cessna Chevrolet this Saturday night.

14. Ryan Newman – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th (change: -6)
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

There are a variety of ways you can look at Ryan Newman from a fantasy perspective this weekend. He has to finish 41st to lock himself into the Chase, so from that aspect I can see where the #31 team would be conservative–at least to start the race. One wreck and he could be guaranteed a finish of at least that, so then that makes me think: why wouldn’t Newman just push it to the limit and try to get that win for the bonus points? If you’re locked in during the race, there’s really no point not to–or at least make some strategy calls if the car isn’t fast enough. “The Rocketman” is driving chassis no. 456 this weekend, which the same one he used at Fontana (20th), Kansas (11th), and Pocono 2 (8th). Statistically, Richmond is Newman’s best track on the circuit and his career average finish of 11.3 is 5th-best among active drivers. He won here way back in 2003 and has finished inside the top 10 in four of the last six races here–and never worse than 15th. In Practice #1, Ryan as 19th on the ten-lap average chart and posted the 10th-fastest overall lap. In Happy Hour, he ranked 10th and 11th on those charts, respectively. I’m a little worried about Newman’s long run speed so that bumps him down in my rankings a bit this week.

15. Kyle Busch – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th (change: none)
**Risk Factor: Extreme Risk**

Let’s play a game. We’ve played it before, but with a different driver. Week 26: Who has a better average finish over the last six Sprint Cup races than Kyle Busch? Rules are you have to run all six races. Let’s see… It’s actually easier to list the drivers that have a worse average finish than Rowdy. Those are: Josh Wise, Cole Whitt, Landon Cassill, Michael Annett, and Alex Bowman. That’s it. I’d be willing to bet there’s even less if you only look at the last five races. Obviously, Kyle Busch and the #18 team are in a rut. But this is Richmond, and this is his best track, so what are fantasy owners supposed to do? Kyle is a four-time winner here at RIR and has finished inside the top 5 in 68.4% of his starts here, all while leading 931 total laps. He was alright in Practice #1 on Friday, with the 18th-fastest lap and the 11th-best ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, Kyle was 6th out of 18 cars in terms of ten-lap average. On a positive note, Rowdy finished 3rd here in April after starting 19th. However, I have zero trust in him right now. Zero. No driver has ever gotten an “Extreme Risk” ranking since I introduced the concept in 2011, but here you have it: the #18 is the riskiest pick you can make this weekend at Richmond. Good luck if you take him, that’s all I can say.

The Next Ten:

16. Kasey Kahne
17. Kurt Busch
18. Tony Stewart
19. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
20. Paul Menard
21. Brian Vickers
22. Martin Truex, Jr.
23. Aric Almirola
24. Danica Patrick
25. Casey Mears

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