Charlotte Bank of America 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1. Kevin Harvick Charlotte Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – Kevin Harvick will be a good fantasy NASCAR pick for the Charlotte Bank of America 500. Recently he’s performed very well here and his track record has been impeccable. In the last eight Charlotte races he’s the only driver with multiple wins and his 6.0 average finish ranks as the best in the series. Another factor you have to like about him is how strong he’s been at similar tracks this season. He’s had a lot of incidents along the way but a solid case could be made he’s been the best driver in the series at cookie-cutters. On Saturday night Kevin Harvick will start in 7th. Four of the last six Charlotte races have been won from a starting position in the top seven. In practice Kevin Harvick liked his car and showed good speed. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the best. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best. Look for Kevin Harvick to be tough to beat.
Starting Position – 7th
Track History – Kevin Harvick has been one of the strongest drivers at Charlotte. Over the last eight races his 6.0 average finish ranks as the best in the series. Also over this eight race stretch he has two wins, the 6th best driver rating and a 9.9 average running position. Kevin Harvick was very fast this spring and he’s the only driver who had anything for Jimmie Johnson. In the race he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, earned the 2nd best PROS Ranking and led the second most laps (100). If he had an incident free race he could’ve potentially won. In the event he had a minor setback when he was burned by a caution. He was running in 2nd but he pitted early and then Kurt Busch’s engine blew up which dropped him to 15th. Over the final 20 laps he rallied from 11th up to 2nd. The strength of his car was running the middle to high line. Also in May at Charlotte he finished runner-up in the All-Star race. In 2013 Harvick finished 6th in the fall and raced his way to victory lane in the spring.
Similar Track Performances – Kevin Harvick has been one of the strongest 1.5 mile track drivers this season but he’s had a lot of incidents which have skewed his stats. From a performance standpoint he’s typically looked like a top five driver. At the last three 1.5 mile tracks he’s led 335 laps and his car has had top 3 potential every race.
Odds To Win – 9/2
Momentum – In Harvick’s last two races he’s fallen just short of the top ten (12th and 13th). Since Indy he’s scored the second most points and has a 7.9 average finish.
Chassis Selection – On Saturday night Kevin Harvick will be driving his Atlanta chassis. He dominated that race leading 195 laps but finished 19th after having slow pit stops and getting into the wall late.
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2. Joey Logano Charlotte Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – I have loved Joey Logano on high-speed intermediate tracks this season. On this track type he’s proven to be the best default “go-to” option. No driver has scored more points at 1.5 mile tracks than him and he’s riding high off of his win last week at Kansas. At every intermediate track visited he’s shown good fantasy potential. From a career perspective Charlotte has proven to be one of his more successful tracks. In practice Logano gave the appearance that he has a good car but it could be better. That said he gave the same appearance last week and we know how that worked out. His ten lap average in Happy Hour ranked as the 16th best.
Starting Position – 13th
Track History – From a career perspective Charlotte has been one of Joey Logano’s best tracks. Among the 23 tracks on the circuit this is home to his best average finish (10.5). He’s raced here 11 times and has finished in the top thirteen 81.8% percent of the time. Also he’s been a safe option and has only once finished outside the top twenty. The only major drawback about him is that he’s only led 3 laps. This spring Logano performed well. He had an 8th place average running position, earned the 10th best driver rating and finished 12th. In the event he performed slightly better than his result because with 20 laps to go he was running in 6th. Last fall for whatever reason his team simply missed the setup and he finished 18th. In spring 2013 he performed well and finished 5th. In fall 2012 he finished 9th.
Similar Track Performances – Joey Logano has been the best performer on 1.5 mile tracks this season. He’s scored the most points, has the best average finish (6.1), best driver rating, 2 wins and is the only driver who’s finished in the top 5, five times.
Odds To Win – 8/1
Momentum – Joey Logano has won two out of the last three races and has four straight top four finishes. Since Indy he’s only finished outside the top ten once and has a 4.4 average finish.
Chassis Selection – On Saturday night Joey Logano will be driving the chassis he drove in August at Michigan and finished 3rd with.
Further Recommended Reading – Post Practice Predictions (another fantasy take), Practice Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Speeds, Happy Hour Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Charlotte Starting Lineup, Charlotte Pit Stall Selections
3. Jeff Gordon Charlotte Fantasy NASCAR Analysis – On Saturday night Jeff Gordon will start in 2nd. This starting position has produced more race winners than any other (15.3% percent of all wins). That bodes very well for him when you combine that with all the success he’s experienced at high-speed intermediate tracks this season. On this track type as long as he’s avoided trouble he’s been a lock for a top ten finish. From the practice sessions I didn’t get the vibe he liked his car as much as he normally has in recent weeks. He didn’t run 10 consecutive laps in practice #2 and his ten lap average ranked as the 19th best in Happy Hour.
Starting Position – 2nd
Track History – In three of the last five Charlotte races Jeff Gordon has finished in 7th. This spring Jeff Gordon finished 7th. In the race he also had a 7th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. Unfortunately not many people were able to pick him because his back hurt, he missed happy hour and had a relief driver ready to replace him. Last fall Gordon started on the pole and ran up front all race long. He also earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 26 laps. Towards the end of the race he had a good chance to win but following a late pit stop only him and Kasey Kahne got two tires and everyone else got four. His gamble got him up to 2nd but he faded back to 7th in the closing laps. In the 2013 Coca Cola 600 he top five potential but he got burned by a caution during the pit cycle and then shortly afterwards he got caught up in a wreck. In his career at Charlotte he has 5 wins, 16 top fives and 23 top tens.
Similar Track Performances – Jeff Gordon has been very strong on 1.5 mile tracks this season and has scored the second most points. Also at these venues he has a 7.3 average finish and when he’s avoided difficulties he’s finished in the top ten every race.
Odds To Win – 5/1
Momentum – Jeff Gordon has been a top five contender for the last five weeks. In three of the last five races he’s finished in the top two. In the other two races he had some form of trouble.
Chassis Selection – On Saturday night Jeff Gordon will be driving his runner-up Chicagoland chassis.
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