Phoenix CampingWorld.com 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Greg Biffle – Since Phoenix was reconfigured Greg Biffle has been one of the most consistent drivers. In all seven races on the new layout he’s finished in the top 17. Also in the races on the new surface he has an 11.3 average finish and a 16.1 average running position. Last fall at Phoenix Greg Biffle finished 9th. If you’re just looking at his result you’re missing the big picture. His car wasn’t very strong and that result is largely influenced by him choosing to not pit late and then only falling back a few positions over the final run. In the event Biffle started in 28th, had a 20th place average running position and only ran in the top fifteen 36% percent of the laps completed. In spring 2014 he didn’t have a spectacular event. He started in 6th, had a 14th place average running position and finished 17th. In fall 2013 he put forth a notable effort. He qualified 18th but had to start in the back due to a transmission change. In the race he had a good car and didn’t stay back for long. On lap 23 he was already up to 25th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 13th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 14th best driver rating. In the spring race at Phoenix in 2013 he started in 17th, finished 17th and led 39 laps. I would encourage you to overlook his lap led total because that’s the product of being out of sync with the field by means of pit strategy. His 13th place average running position is a pretty good indicator as to how good the 16 car was. In 2012 at Phoenix Biffle had results of 7th and 3rd. In the first race on the current configuration he finished 13th. Last season on shorter flat tracks Biffle scored the 13th most points and had a 15.2 average finish. (Yahoo B Driver)

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Aric Almirola – Aric Almirola has been one of the most consistent drivers on the new surface at Phoenix. In his six races on the current configuration he’s finished between 12th and 19th every race. Also over this stretch he has a 15.7 average starting position, 15.8 average finish and a 15.3 average running position. Last fall he didn’t have a great race and finished right where he should’ve. In the event he finished 18th and had an 18th place average running position. For about three-fourths of the event he essentially ran right around that range. In spring 2014 he ran better. In that event he started in 9th, had an 11th place average running position, earned the 12th best driver rating and finished 15th. In the race he performed better than his 15th place result and I think his 11th place average running position does a better job portraying his level of competitiveness. In fall 2013 he finished 19th and had a 20th place average running position. His next three Phoenix results prior to that race were 15th, 16th and 12th. Last season on shorter flat tracks he was a quality performer. In the six races on this sub-track type he scored the 12th most points, had a 14.8 average result and finished in the top 23 every race. (Yahoo B Driver)

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Paul Menard – Shorter flat tracks are venues where Paul Menard doesn’t have great personal fantasy value. From a career perspective his level of success hasn’t been good on this sub-track type. In 2014 at these venues he had a 20.3 average finish and an 18.2 average running position. In only one race at these venues did he finish in the top ten and in half the races he finished outside the top twenty. Last fall at Phoenix for nearly the first three-fourths of the event he looked like a driver who could potentially challenge for a top ten finish and over that segment I would estimate his average running position was around 13th. In the last quarter he wasn’t as competitive and legitimately fell back to his 23rd place finish. In spring 2014 he didn’t run well and finished 25th with a 21st place average running position. In fall 2013 Menard finished 16th and had a 15th place average running position. In spring 2013 he finished 20th and had a 17th place average running position. In two of the first three races on the new Phoenix layout he finished 9th. (Yahoo B Driver)

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