Pocono Axalta 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks
1) Kevin Harvick (Starting –5th ) (Odds To Win – 4/1 )
Quick Fantasy Spin – Pocono hasn’t historically been one of Kevin Harvick’s better tracks. He’s only finished in the top ten 36% percent of the time and has only led 10 laps. There is hope for him though because he has Hendrick horsepower under his hood and last August he finished runner-up. Last June he also ran well. Another big reason for optimism is how strong he’s been on a weekly basis this year. In practice this weekend nobody has been better than Harvick. He’s had the best outright speed in every session and he’s been good over long runs. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best and in Happy Hour it ranked as the best.
Pocono Track History – Since Pocono was reconfigured in 2012 Kevin Harvick has the 11th best driver rating, a 12th place average finish and a 13.3 average running position. Last August Harvick had his best Pocono race ever. He finished 2nd, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 5 laps. Last June he also had a strong showing but walked away with a misleading result. On lap 116 while he was running in 2nd he had a tire go down and he was forced to make an unscheduled stop. The flat tire dropped him all the way back to 32nd, one lap down. He didn’t get back on the lead lap until late in the event so his 14th place finish was remarkable when you consider the facts. Also in that race he earned the 5th best driver rating. In August 2013 he started in 14th, had a 16th place average running position and finished 17th. In June 2013 he had a better performance. His 9th place finish is a little misleading because he was running around the top five but during a round of pit stops he got a penalty. That dropped him all the way back to the mid-twenties with less than half the race remaining. In the final 40 laps Harvick really got on the wheel. He was back in 25th but rallied up to a 9th place finish. If he didn’t get that pit road penalty he looked like a lock for a top five finish.
Momentum – Over the last five races Kevin Harvick has scored the most points and has a 4.6 average finish.
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2) Jeff Gordon (Starting – 4th ) (Odds To Win – 12/1 )
Quick Fantasy Spin – Jeff Gordon is a living legend at Pocono. He’s won here a record six times and has paced the field for 1,037 laps. At Pocono Gordon almost always finishes well. He’s finished in the top five 43% percent of the time and in the top ten 70% percent of the time. Also at Pocono he’s been a remarkably safe fantasy option and has finished in the top twenty 86% percent of the time. In final practice Jeff Gordon has happy with his car. He never made any +10 lap runs but when he’s happy, he’s good.
Pocono Track History – Last August at Pocono Jeff Gordon had the best car but the race was decided by strategy. In the race he earned the best PROS Ranking, best driver rating and led the most laps (63). He lost the race during the final round of pit stops when he took four tires which shuffled him back in the running order. When the checkered flag waved he finished 6th. In June 2014 he had a strong showing and was good over long runs. In that race he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and finished 8th. In August 2013 he finished runner-up to teammate Kasey Kahne. He came close to winning but he lost the lead during the final restart when Kahne made a strong power move. In that race he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 7th place average running position and led 7 laps. In June 2013 he had an off-race by his standards. He finished 12th and had a 14th place average running position. In August 2012 he got his most recent victory. In that race he was running in 5th but Johnson and Kenseth got together during a restart and he shot into the lead. Then the rain fell and the race never went back to green.
Momentum – Since Phoenix minus Talladega where he wrecked on the final lap Jeff Gordon has an 8.3 average finish.
Further Recommended Reading – Pocono Speed Cheat Sheet, Pocono Happy Hour Notes, Pocono Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Scouting Report, PROS Rankings, Draftkings Pocono #2 2014 Points, Pocono Starting Lineup, Asterisk Mark Report
3) Kurt Busch (Starting – 1st ) (Odds To Win – 7/1 )
Quick Fantasy Spin – Kurt Busch will be a contender in the Pocono Axalta 400. He’s won here multiple times and has finished in the top five 41% percent of the time and in the top ten 56% percent of the time. Recently he’s ranked as one of the best here. Over the last four Pocono races he has the 2nd best driver rating, 2nd best average running position (7.5), 3rd best average finish (6.0) and has led 44 laps. In practice Kurt Busch said he had an up and down day. He has Kevin Harvick’s note book and I’m sure he’ll turn to that once again because it looks like the #4 has the field covered. Performance wise Busch has looked strong.
Pocono Track History – Kurt Busch is always a strong competitor at Pocono. In his last 10 Pocono races he has 7 top tens. Last August he had a great car and finished a slightly misleading 13th. In the race he earned the 5th best driver rating, had an 8th place average running position and led 30 laps. With 8 laps to go while he was running in 10th he got into the wall. Last June he had an incident free race and he ran well throughout the event. He started 2nd, finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 5 laps. In August 2013 he was strong in the #78. He finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 9 laps. In June 2013 he started back in 20th but that wasn’t a problem. In the first 10 laps he was already up to 11th. In that race he finished 7th and earned the 4th best driver rating.
Momentum –Since Talladega minus his Dover wreck he has a 10th place average finish.
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