Michigan Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Quicken Loans 400
Believe it or not, starting position means a lot here at Michigan International Speedway. This is a big, 2-mile race track that was repaved before the 2012 season. Because of the repave, the top cars will run laps that are nearly identical–as we saw in practice. Looking at the races here last year, 7 of the top 9 finishers in the June race started 9th or better while 5 of the top 8 finishers in the August race started the day inside the top 7. Looking at this weekend, Kasey Kahne is on the pole with Kevin Harvick alongside. The full Quicken Loans 400 starting lineup can be found here. We did get two practice sessions in on Saturday and the results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Don’t forget to check out our notes, either: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. On a side note: there’s rain in the forecast for Sunday and fuel mileage has been known to come into play here at MIS. In other words, we could see a very interesting (read: frustrating) Quicken Loans 400.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Quicken Loans 400:
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“The Closer” has had quite a few mediocre runs here at Michigan International Speedway but he’s definitely found something here over the last couple of years. And by “found something” I mean that Harvick has finished 2nd in each of the last four Michigan races. Not too shabby. The news going around right now is that everyone suddenly realized that Harvick hasn’t won since Phoenix back in March. I guess finishing 2nd in six of the last ten races isn’t good enough for some people. I’m not going to ramble on about Harvick this week because he’s been ranked 1st or 2nd all season long and you know exactly why. The #4 Chevrolet had top 5 speed in both practice sessions on Saturday and “Happy” will definitely be a threat for the win once again on Sunday.
2. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Well this team finally has the monkey off their back now that they’ve grabbed that elusive victory. Now the #78 team can focus on trying to win the championship in November, and with the way they’re running right now, I think they may be a legitimate title contender (see my post about there here). Past history at a track doesn’t mean anything to Truex right now but we’ll look at the numbers anyway; Martin had a rough 2014 at Michigan with Furniture Row Racing—he finished 37th and 36th—but in the four races before that while with Michael Waltrip Racing, Truex averaged a finish of 10.3 with a best result of 3rd here in 2013. It’s worth noting that MWR has had a weird grasp of this track over the last three or four years, though, especially with Clint Bowyer. Anyway, Truex will roll off the grid in 9th when and if we go green here on Sunday. I’m not as confident in him as a top 5 car as I was at Pocono last weekend but it’s damn close. Might as well keep rolling with the hot hand while you can… By the way, Truex said his car was “near perfect” during Happy Hour.
3. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This could very well be another Harvick vs. Johnson showdown on Sunday. Tell me if you’ve heard that one before. Although now we have a third player in the mix: Martin Truex, Jr. Anyway, Jimmie is the defending winner of this Michigan race, and surprisingly enough that has been his only victory at this 2-mile race track. His career performance here at MIS actually hasn’t been too great; in 26 career starts at this track, Jimmie has just a 15.9 average finish with only five top 5s. Definitely not his best. With that being said, the #48 team is on absolute fire right now and that is going to continue here in Michigan on Sunday. I know we’re not talking a lot about Johnson but he has ended up 3rd or better in seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races. Seriously. Jimmie has a good starting spot for Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400 (8th) and he posted the 7th-best lap in Happy Hour after ending up 10th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday. It’s a little more risky than usual this weekend to pick the #48 Chevrolet because of the driver’s history at this track, but Johnson should once again be a threat for the win on Sunday—and definitely a top 5 car.
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. gets this ranking by default this week because the #88 team are still putting out top 5 car after top 5 car on race weekends. Lately, however, they’re just not getting the finishes. That could easily change on Sunday, though. Let’s not forget that Junior loves Michigan International Speedway and he’s finished 7th or better in four of the last six events here—including his win back in 2012. Typically Dale sends out a tweet about his car after Happy Hour, and he did this weekend (read that here) but he wasn’t as optimistic as usual. That’s a little concerning to me but then again the #88 Chevrolet was 6th-fastest in Happy Hour with the 3rd-best ten-lap average. It’s also going to be quite a bit hotter on Sunday than it was on Saturday so that could help the #88 car. Junior ran 7th and 5th in the two Michigan races last season and I’m expecting something similar out of this team on Sunday.
5. Brad Keselowski – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I debated for a few minutes at whether or not I really thought Brad Keselowski was a top 5 fantasy pick this weekend. I initially had Jeff Gordon in this slot, but he only has a few top 5 finishes in all of 2015. Kasey Kahne might have the speed, but he’s not able to be trusted so that bumped him down a few spots. And the rest of the drivers simply don’t have the speed to finish top 5—at least heading into Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400. Another reason I chose to put Kez in this spot is because of the unpredictability that we are possibly facing here on Sunday. Like I said before, rain is in the forecast, and it’s not uncommon for fuel mileage to come into play here at MIS. When it comes to strategy, there’s no crew chief I trust more in the garage more than the #2 team’s Paul Wolfe. Now let’s look at some numbers. Keselowski hasn’t finished worse than 13th here at his home track since the 2011 season and that shouldn’t change on Sunday. Brad finished 3rd and 8th in the two events here last season and I expect him to end up somewhere around there this weekend as well. The Blue Deuce was middle-of-the-road on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday but by the end of Happy Hour, Keselowski had the 9th-best lap and was 5th on the ten-lap average chart. Also, BK will roll off the grid in 3rd on Sunday and good track position definitely doesn’t hurt at a track like this. You could rank the #2 Ford anywhere between 5th and 12th this weekend and I couldn’t argue with you. I’m obviously more optimistic than most heading into Sunday.
6. Jeff Gordon – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Jeff Gordon has just two finishes of 6th or better thus far in 2015 so this ranking is probably surprising to some people out there. I’m just looking at the fact that he ended up 6th in the June race at Michigan last season and then went on to win the August race from the pole. Now I know this #24 team hasn’t had the same speed as they had last year, but it’s still worth noting. Also, Gordon posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour on Saturday along with the 2nd-best ten-lap average behind Kyle Larson. That says a lot to me because Gordon isn’t a driver that is typically going to show his hand during practice. The #24 Chevrolet was 8th on the speed chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning. This ranking may be a bit too high for “The Rainbow Warrior” but all things considered, I like Gordon a lot more this weekend than the guys I have ranked below him. It also doesn’t hurt that his car has speed and he’s starting 6th. At worst I think we’re looking at a top 10 finish from the #24 Chevrolet on Sunday with a result of 6th to 8th much more likely.
7. Kasey Kahne – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kasey Kahne won the pole for this year’s Quicken Loans 400 on Friday. Flashing back to last season, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon were the two pole sitters for the Sprint Cup races at Michigan in 2014. They finished 2nd and 1st, respectively. As I said before, track position means a lot here. With that being said, the question that always comes up with Kahne in fantasy racing is can you trust him? He usually has plenty of speed (he is in a Hendrick car) but Kasey’s prerogative has always been that he’s inconsistent and usually doesn’t finish where he should. Looking over the last three Cup races, though, Kahne hasn’t finished worse than 13th and he even grabbed that top 5 a couple of weeks at Dover. Here at Michigan this weekend, the #5 Chevrolet was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2 and ended up with the 11th-best lap in Happy Hour. Kahne won from the pole here at Michigan back in 2006 and has ended up 7th or better in three of the last five Cup races at this track. There’s a bit of risk in taking Kahne this weekend but it’s hard to look past the fact that he’s on the pole and how much that means here.
8. Joey Logano – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m still getting that “off” vibe from this #22 team and I don’t like it. We can all agree that Joey lucked into that top 5 finish at Pocono last weekend, but then again when it comes to fantasy racing, it’s simply the results that matter. Michigan is typically a track that I would have Logano in the top 5 without hesitation, but with how this team has been running as of late, I just don’t see him challenging for the win on Sunday. Now the #22 Ford is definitely a top 10 car—they haven’t fallen off the map that much—but when you pick an elite driver like Logano on your fantasy team, you expect to get a top 5 finish at worst. Joey is on a four-race streak of top 10s here at Michigan and has finished 9th in each of the last two June events. The #22 Ford failed to crack the top 10 in either practice session on Saturday, which opens up the possibility that this team was just kind of experimenting with setups…and for their fantasy owners, I hope so. Right now I’m on the fence about Logano and whether or not he will make any of my rosters.
9. Kyle Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kyle Busch has been a solid top 10 threat (or better) in every race since he came back from his leg injuries, and last week at Pocono he finally broke through with the finish (9th). Hopefully now he can build on that and have some more good runs, maybe even a win to get into the Chase. This week at Michigan is tricky for Kyle Busch owners because he is so hit-or-miss here—even more so than usual. Following up his 13th-place August finish in 2012, Rowdy ran 4th in the June race here back in 2013, but those are sandwiched between four results outside of the top 30. In the two events here back in 2011, Kyle Busch finished 3rd and 1st, but keep in mind that those were the last races before the repave. It’s quickly coming down to desperation mode for Kyle Busch to make this year’s Chase and that means he’s going to either go out there and win, or he’s going to hit the wall trying. Hence the need for the “High Risk.” The #18 Toyota will roll off the grid in 10th when we go green this weekend and Kyle was 2nd-fastest to Jeff Gordon in Happy Hour on Saturday after posting the 4th-best lap in Practice #2.
10. Kyle Larson – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
There’s a lot of upside when it comes to Kyle Larson this weekend, but I urge fantasy owners to once again temper their expectations. With that being said, I think this team is starting to heat up. With his 8th-place finish at Pocono last Sunday, Larson now has two straight top 10 finishes—something I thought wasn’t possible with how the first 12 races were for this #42 team to start the 2015 season. If “The Phenom” is starting to get some his mojo back and can start rattling off the good finishes like we saw in 2014, though, the competition better watch out. Larson was one of the fastest drivers in Michigan on Saturday and hopefully that speed translates over to Sunday for this kid. The #42 Chevrolet showed top 5 speed on both practice charts and the team made some long runs in both sessions, which tells me this is a pretty good race car that they can work with. Larson ran 8th in this race one year ago and it really wouldn’t surprise me to see him end up close to there again on Sunday. I just wish he started a little closer to the front…
11. Denny Hamlin – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Denny Hamlin spun his #11 Toyota in Happy Hour but the team got it fixed and he was back out on the track soon after. That spin didn’t faze me one way or the other, though. Hamlin is a two-time winner at Michigan International Speedway and he ended up 7th in last season’s August race. With that being said, that has been Denny’s only top 10 here since 2011, a race where he went to victory lane. Interesting how it works that way, isn’t it? Anyway, all of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas seem to be pretty equal this weekend and heading into race day, I see them all as 9th to 14th-place cars. I really don’t think they have the speed to go up there and challenge for a top 5 this weekend, although I’ve been wrong before.
12. Matt Kenseth – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Matt Kenseth owns the 2nd-best average finish among active drivers at Michigan International Speedway but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that he ran for Roush all those years and they were pretty damn good here…when they were good, anyway. In his four races with JGR, Kenseth has posted results of 6th, 15th, 14th, and 38th here at Michigan. Clearly I don’t think the #20 Toyota will be too terrible here on Sunday, but I don’t think Kenseth has a top 5 car. Matt ranked 14th in both practice sessions on Saturday and that’s about where I think he’ll end up on Sunday, too—as long as nothing crazy happens (no guarantees there). As you can see, I have all four JGR cars ranked between 9th and 13th heading into Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400. You can change them out however you want, I don’t really have a solid reason why any are better than the others other than a gut hunch.
13. Carl Edwards – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
To add to the confusion as to whether or not Carl Edwards is a good fantasy pick every week, the #19 team has suddenly found their calling in qualifying. I’m still not buying it. Cousin Carl has disappointed me a few too many times this season for me to confidently pick him on Sunday. Even here at Michigan, where Edwards owns the best average finish among active drivers (9.7). The fact of the matter is this: the #19 Toyota still has just two top 10 finishes all season long and this team has shown time and time again that they can easily lose the race car over the course of an event (most of that is on the shoulders of crew chief Darian Grubb). With that being said, that may be a good thing for them because I’m not expecting the track to change much here at Michigan on Sunday. Carl was 11th- and 8th-fastest in the two practice sessions on Sunday but it’s very difficult to get a read on how good he actually is on a race weekend. I’d be surprised if Edwards can stay inside the top 5 for long once the green flag waves, but it wouldn’t be out of this world to see him end up inside the top 10 when it’s all said and done.
14. Ryan Newman – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 15th
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
At this prediction rank, Ryan Newman is a pretty low risk pick. If you look at his record both at Michigan as well as throughout the entire schedule, he’s the master of consistency, especially with finishes between 8th and 15th. It almost won Newman the championship last year, though, so I can’t say it’s a bad thing. “The Rocketman” will have some work to do on Sunday—he qualified 23rd for the Quicken Loans 400—but if he can stay on the lead lap all day, I don’t see that being an issue. Newman ended up 15th and 11th in the two races here last season and has ended up inside the top 15 in seven of the last eight events at this 2-mile race track. The #31 Chevrolet didn’t blow anyone away on the speed charts Saturday but this team did do a decently long run in Happy Hour, which is more than you can say about a lot of other teams. With his 39th-place finish at Pocono last weekend, Newman how has two straight finishes of 18th or worse, so he’ll definitely be looking to get back on the horse this Sunday at Michigan.
15. Paul Menard – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 13th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I really like Paul Menard as a sleeper pick heading into this weekend but he’s disappointed me quite a bit thus far. However, when you take into account that Paul has ended up 4th in each of the last three Cup races at Michigan International Speedway, I guess expectations are pretty high. I think the #27 Chevrolet is definitely a top 15 car heading into Sunday’s Quicken Loans 400 but I think it’s going to take a lot for Menard to get into the top 5. There’s a decent chance he cracks the top 10, though. Paul qualified 17th for this week’s race and was middle-of-the-road in both practice sessions on Saturday. Just looking at those numbers, it’s not surprising that a lot of fantasy racers are going to completely overlook the #27 Chevrolet this weekend–and I don’t blame them. However, if you’re looking to take someone with pretty good upside that won’t be on a lot of other rosters, Paul Menard is your guy. Remember, he tends to race better than he practices and this team has ended up 15th or better in five of the last seven Sprint Cup races.
