Daytona 2 Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Coke Zero 400
One of the most fun things about restrictor plate races (from a fantasy perspective) is all of the different options you have. Seriously, you could make a case for putting just about anyone in the field on your fantasy rosters tomorrow night, and I’d have a hard time objecting. With the first two plate races this year, we’ve seen that a good starting position is actually quite helpful on race day, so you can see the starting lineup by clicking here. Qualifying was rained out so Dale Earnhardt, Jr. “won” the pole for Sunday night’s Coke Zero 400. I’m not a big fan of looking at practice data when we come to Daytona, but if you want to here are the speeds: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. As usual, here’s our notes for each session as well: Practice #1 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Coke Zero 400:
1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 1st
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
A lot of people like to pick Dale Earnhardt, Jr. when we come to a restrictor plate track because he is so good at them (it’s almost unbelievable). Then there are a group of people who like to not pick Junior because so many other people pick him. I understand the latter’s reasoning, but that’s just not a wise choice right now. The #88 Chevrolet came home 3rd in this year’s Daytona 500 and then ended up in victory lane at Talladega back in May. If I’ve learned anything over the years it’s that when a team is doing good on the plate tracks, they’re good for all four races of the season. The same goes if the team is running into bad luck. Over the last seven points-paying Sprint Cup races at Daytona, Junior has never finished worse than 15th, and that in and of itself should be enough for you to pick him here on Sunday night in the Coke Zero 400. Momentum-wise, nobody has a better average finish than Earnhardt over the last six races. Unless he gets caught up in a wreck this weekend, Junior will be up front when it’s all said and done.
2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 3rd
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Believe it or not, the driver with the best average rating over the last five points-paying races here at Daytona is Jimmie Johnson. I guess the fact that he won both events here in 2003 helps that average quite a bit. The entire Hendrick Motorsports clan have their restrictor plate packages perfected, and as long as they can stay out of trouble on Sunday night, all four have a chance at taking the victory in the Coke Zero 400. Looking at the plate tracks this season, “Six Time” finished 5th in the season-opening Daytona 500 and wound up 2nd to teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at Talladega. As usual, Jimmie Johnson will be a solid fantasy pick this weekend at Daytona. With that being said, I wouldn’t use him in allocation games simply because of the unpredictability of the races here. Jimmie is a three-time winner here at Daytona International Speedway, which is tied with the pied piper Earnhardt, Jr., believe it or not.
3. Clint Bowyer – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 12th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I think we can all agree that Clint Bowyer is one of the better restrictor plate drivers in the Sprint Cup garage. Now, he’s had more success over at Talladega–he once went five straight races without finishing worse than 7th–but Clint has had some luck here at Daytona as well. In fact, just this year he ended up 7th in the Daytona 500, so he’s got that going for him. Another thing that Bowyer and this #15 team have right now is momentum. Yes, believe it or not, after the downright terrible start that he got off to in 2015, Bowyer now has three top 10s in the last four races, including his first top 5 of the season last week at Sonoma. Things are definitely starting to look up for this #15 team right now. Clint’s 7th-place finish in this year’s “Great American Race” makes it two top 10s in a row for him at this track, as he finished 9th in last season’s Coke Zero 400. He has now finished 11th or better in four of the last five points-paying races at this track. I know it’s hard to trust Clint Bowyer on your fantasy team right now but this could be the weekend that he surprises everyone and locks himself into the Chase with (somewhat of) an upset victory… As you can tell, Clint got a major boost in my rankings because of where he will start on Sunday night.
4. Kurt Busch – Starts 29th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 5th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
This past month of racing for Kurt Busch has been the perfect representation of his fantasy value as a whole. Seriously. Before Dover, it looked like Kurt couldn’t post a bad finish. We all had a ton of confidence in him, which was saying a lot because of how much he has burned us in the past. And then he finished 31st at Dover. It’s finishes like that that really make you hesitant on picking a driver again in the coming weeks. Lo and behold, Kurt went out to Pocono and came home 5th, and then went on to pull off a lucky win at Michigan. He finished 2nd to his brother, Kyle, last week at Sonoma. Like I said: picture perfect Kurt Busch; the second you stop trusting the guy, he goes on a three-race streak of top 5s. Oh, well. There’s plenty of reasons to like the #41 Chevrolet this weekend at Daytona, with the number one reason being the fact that the #4 and #41 Stewart-Haas Chevrolets work together and have a definite speed advantage over the rest of the garage. Throw in the fact that Kurt finished 3rd in this event one year ago (and 6th in 2013) and I’d be a fool not to recommend him for Sunday night’s race. Let’s just hope he doesn’t pull a Kurt Busch and wreck out halfway through the race…
5. Kevin Harvick – Starts 35th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 2nd
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
It’s not all that bad that qualifying got rained out and Harvick will have to start near the rear because he’s one of those drivers that doesn’t mind riding around in the back anyway. There’s also quite a few reasons to like Kevin Harvick this weekend. First, he finished 2nd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed that up with an 8th-place finish at Talladega in May. Also, that #4 Chevrolet has been a hot rod every single race weekend in 2015, so much so that I’m starting to question whether this team is cheating (just kidding, but it’s crazy how fast they are). Because of their speed–and the third reason to like Harvick–this team has knocked out good finish after good finish all season long. When you have all three of those positives with one driver, it’s almost a perfect combination at a restrictor plate track. I truly believe that momentum is one of the biggest factors in running well at this big tracks, and there’s probably not any other team in the garage with as much momentum as this #4 crew. Harvick is a little hit or miss here at Daytona (four top 10s and four finishes outside of the top 20 in the last nine races here) but it’s hard to go against the hottest team in the garage. The only leagues I wouldn’t take Harvick this week are allocation games such as Yahoo!.
6. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 7th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Well, the driver of the #78 Chevrolet finally showed that he is human last weekend at Sonoma. Now it’s up to Truex to get back on the horse and not get caught in a slump. When I look at his history here at Daytona, there’s some cause for concern, though. In 20 career starts at this track, Martin has zero top 5 and only two top 10 finishes. Zero top 5s! Even Boris Said has lucked into a top 5 finish at this track. With that being said, Truex has eleven top 20s to his credit here, so that tells me he’s mediocre at restrictor plate races and just isn’t over that hump of being good yet. It may never happen, but you never know. One thing I really like about the #78 Chevrolet this weekend is the fact that Truex has brought it home inside the top 10 in both plate races thus far. Momentum means a lot at these big race tracks and when you pair that fact with how many top 10s Martin has notched this year, I’m feeling pretty confident that we’re going to see another good run out of him on Sunday night. Truex finished 15th in this event one year ago.
7. Denny Hamlin – Starts 36th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 4th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Here’s a guy that has been one of the best plate racers over the last year and a half, yet he doesn’t really come to the front of anyone’s mind when we stop at Daytona or Talladega. I’m not sure why though. Looking at 2014 specifically, Hamlin finished 2nd in the season-opening Daytona 500 before taking the win at Talladega in May. He then came home 6th in the 2014 Coke Zero 400 before finishing 18th in the second Talladega race. That’s three finishes of 6th or better in four restrictor plate races; that doesn’t happen with luck. Flash forward to 2015 and Hamlin came home 4th in this year’s “Great American Race” before piloting his #11 Toyota to a 9th-place finish at Talladega in May. This team desperately needs a good run this weekend, which you can look at one of two ways: they’ll be going the “extra mile” to run well on Sunday night, or they’ll continue their mediocrity because that’s how this season is going for the #11 team. I think fantasy owners will be able to get a top 10 finish out of Hamlin on Sunday night, but maybe that’s just my optimism speaking. Momentum-wise, Denny hasn’t ended up better than 10th in Sprint Cup action since the Charlotte race in late May.
8. Jeff Gordon – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 10th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
In all honesty, Jeff Gordon could have probably won both restrictor plate races this season. He won the pole for both the Daytona 500 and the May Talladega race, and that should tell you one thing: the #24 team has a horsepower advantage over everyone else in the garage. Unfortunately, Gordon got caught up in some wrecks and finished mid-30s in both of those races. Once again this weekend the #24 Chevrolet is fast but because qualifying was rained out, Gordon will start 24th. NBC is going to make a big deal about this being his final start at Daytona, and I have to question how annoyed Jeff is getting with all of that every weekend. Anyway, if he can stay out of trouble, Gordon is a top 5 and potential winning threat. However, he hasn’t been able to do that at either restrictor plate race this season, and for whatever reason, when you’re having an off-year on these big tracks, it typically doesn’t turn around. It’s worth noting that Jeff Gordon hasn’t finished better than 12th in the summer Daytona race since the 2011 season.
9. Joey Logano – Starts 34th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 6th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Remember back in late May when I had concerns about this #22 team? Well, Logano never finished worse than 5th in any of the June Sprint Cup races so I guess there was no cause for concern. If you’re getting the finishes, that’s all that matters, right? So, momentum-wise, Joey is looking good this weekend: only the #88 crew has a better average finish over the last six Sprint Cup races than the #22 crew. As you probably remember, Joey took home this year’s Daytona 500 trophy, so of course there’s going to be a lot of eyes on him this weekend. My only concern about him is that he’s really not that great of a plate racer; in 13 career starts here at Daytona International Speedway, Logano has notched just four top 10s, although three of those were also top 5s. Hit or miss driver? Yeah, that’s the story of a lot of people at this race track. The good news is that the last time Joey finished top 10 here at Daytona (before this year’s 500) was back in 2012 and he ended up top 10 in both events. I like Logano a lot more when he starts up front at these plate races but that won’t happen this weekend because qualifying was rained out. The #22 Ford will roll off the grid in the mid-30s.
10. Kasey Kahne – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 9th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
As is the case with Kasey Kahne at any race track, his record here at Daytona International Speedway is pretty up and down. He finished 9th in this year’s Daytona 500, but that has been his only result better than 27th at this track since 2012. Looking over at the other plate track, Talladega, Kahne ended up 34th there in the May race, but he ran 8th and 12th there in the two races last season. Long story short, you never know what you’re going to get when you put Kasey Kahne on your fantasy roster, and that couldn’t be more true this weekend. On a positive note, he does have the 8th-best average finish over the last six Cup races and Kahne grabbed his sixth top 10 of the season last weekend at Sonoma. It’s also not a bad thing that he has a Hendrick engine under the hood of that #5 Chevrolet. Kasey will roll off the grid in 10th on Sunday and will either finish top 10 or outside of the top 30. Personally, I’d rather take a risk with some other drivers in the Coke Zero 400 over Kasey Kahne.
11. Brad Keselowski – Starts 33rd – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 11th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I mentioned earlier that I am somewhat concerned about the #22 team, but when you’re looking at the Cup series as a whole, the driver we really should be more worried about is Brad Keselowski. Have you realized that BK has just three top 5s this entire season? Or that he has finished outside of the top 10 in three of the last four races, with the exception being that wacky race at Michigan? I don’t know if this #2 crew is experimenting for the Chase or what, but something is going on there. Not only are they lacking a bit of speed but they’re also hitting more bad luck than usual. This weekend, Keselowski is one of those drivers that got bit by qualifying getting rained out. Engine woes relegated him to a 40th-place finish here at Daytona in February. One positive way to look at that is this: over the past three years, Keselowski has had one good finish and one bad finish at Daytona. So, in a way, he’s due.
12. Matt Kenseth – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 8th
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Matt Kenseth is a driver that you like to have on your fantasy rosters at restrictor plate races. Why? Because he gets to the front. Kenseth will be one of the most aggressive drivers once the Coke Zero 400 goes green on Sunday night, and you can expect him to be near the front early despite the fact that he starts mid-pack. This can go either way when it comes to finish, though, as the most aggressive drivers are often the most likely to get caught up in wrecks. Then again, drivers that “push it to the limit” are often very good at setting themselves up for the win. Kenseth had a great year on the plate tracks in 2012 and I think all of us fantasy players are waiting for that to come back. He ended up 1st and 3rd in the two Daytona events that season, which was his last one with Roush. Matt has had strong showings on the plate tracks with his #20 Toyota but has gotten caught up in some bad luck more often than not. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, Matt has finished 20th or worse in four of the five points-paying races at Daytona. This makes him a high risk pick in my book on Sunday. With that being said, this team is in desperate need of a good run (and a win) so we’ll see if lady luck is on their side in the Coke Zero 400…
13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 16th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Jamie Mac is turning into last year’s Ryan Newman. If things go as I expect, the driver of the #1 Chevrolet will make this year’s Chase field, but he’ll do it without a win. When just looking at points scored this season, McMurray ranks 7th among all Sprint Cup drivers, having scored more points thus far than the likes of Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, and Carl Edwards. Momentum-wise, Jamie Mac finished 11th at Sonoma last weekend, which broke his three-race streak of top 10 finishes. Looking at this season from mid-March (the Fontana race to be exact) McMurray has only finished worse than 16th once. He’s the definition of consistent right now and, depending on your fantasy approach to Sunday night’s race, he might be the perfect fit for your Coke Zero 400 roster. Remember, Jamie took home the Daytona 500 trophy back in 2010 and he ran 7th in this summer race at Daytona two years ago.
14. Austin Dillon – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 17th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
A lot of people throw Daytona and Talladega into the same category because they are both superspeedways–myself included. But really they are quite different, just like Sonoma isn’t the same as Watkins Glen. One easy way to see that Daytona and Talladega are different is to look at Austin Dillon’s record at each. In four career starts here at DIS, Austin has an average finish of 14.8. In the same number of starts at Talladega, his average finish is 22.3. So what does that tell us, really? Not a lot, except that Dillon is a decent pick here at Daytona. Thus far in his short Sprint Cup career, Daytona has been Austin’s 4th-best track on the circuit despite the fact that he finished 31st in his first points-paying attempt here. Last season, though, Dillon brought the #3 Chevrolet home in 9th and 5th in the two Daytona races, and in this season’s “Great American Race” he wound up 14th. I really like the Childress engines here and there’s just something about that #3 at Daytona. On Sunday night, Austin Dillon will be looking for his first top 10 since Bristol, and because qualifying was rained out he will start on the outside pole alongside Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
15. Casey Mears – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
Pre-Practice Rank: 14th
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Here’s pretty much everyone’s sleeper pick of the weekend, and you can read what I wrote about Mears earlier this week by clicking here. If you’ve been involved with this fantasy racing thing for any length of time, you know the importance of following trends. We know that Jimmie Johnson is a sure pick at Dover because of analyzing the trends and his overall history at that track. We hear about trends all the time during races, such as the average lap of the final caution. Trends are everywhere. So, if we’re analyzing trends at Daytona, there’s a name that should be at the front of your mind: Casey Mears. Believe it or not, the driver of the #13 Chevrolet has been pretty damn good here as of late. And by “pretty damn good” I mean that he has a better average finish than Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and pretty much any other Sprint Cup driver. In fact, only Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has a better average finish here at Daytona over the last six races than Casey Mears. The latter is on a four-race streak of top 10s at this track and it honestly wouldn’t surprise me if he makes it five in a row here on Sunday night. When it comes to career average finish, Daytona is Mears’ 2nd-best track on the circuit behind Watkins Glen. He just has a knack for running well here, especially over the last couple of years.
The Next Ten:
16. Kyle Busch
17. Paul Menard
18. Ryan Newman
19. Carl Edwards
20. Kyle Larson
21. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
22. Greg Biffle
23. Sam Hornish, Jr. (nice sleeper–finished 12th & 6th in plate races this year, starts 11th)
24. Danica Patrick
25. Aric Almirola
