Dover AAA 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Jimmie Johnson – Who’s better than Jimmie Johnson at Dover? NO ONE! Picking him at Dover is as close to a fantasy lock as you get in fantasy NASCAR. In 27 races at The Monster Mile he has 10 wins, 15 top fives and 20 top tens. In 3 of the last 4 Dover races he’s been to victory lane. This June Johnson didn’t have the best car, but it got better over the course of the event. During one of the late restarts he passed Harvick for the lead and after that it was smooth sailing. In the race Johnson started 14th, had a 5th place average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 23 laps. Last fall Johnson finished 3rd. He ran up front all race long having a 4th place average running position and earning the 4th best driver rating. What was disappointing about his performance is that he didn’t lead any laps. In the 12 Dover races prior to that he averaged leading 201.6 laps per race. In June 2014 Johnson was dominant. He started in 4th and took the lead on lap 82. Of the remaining 318 laps he paced the field for 272 of them. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, had a 2nd place average running position and earned a near perfect driver rating. In September 2013 he won his 8th race and passed Richard Petty and Bobby Allison on the Dover all-time wins list. That afternoon he was unbeatable. He earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 243 laps. In spring 2013 Johnson should’ve won but he jumped a late restart while leading which led to a 17th place result. In the five Dover races prior to that he had a 3.4 average finish. (Yahoo A Driver)

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Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick will be one of the drivers to beat on Sunday. Over the last three Dover races I would argue he’s had the best car. This June I thought he had the best car except during a late restart while he was on old tires Johnson got around him and he couldn’t reel him back in. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 91 laps. In 2014 he had a great car in both events but neither race was incident free. Last fall he had the field covered. In that event he started on the pole, led 223 laps but finished 13th. The key moment for him in the race was on lap 252 when he had a left front tire go flat. That dropped him down a lap back to about 20th. Prior to that there’s no question he had the best car. In June 2014 he also had the best car but had valve stem issues which led to a flat. In that race on lap 165 while he was leading that issue occurred and it dropped him down two laps. Prior to his flat he led 24 laps. His Yahoo Race Chart does a good job portraying his level of competitiveness. When the checkerboard flag waved he finished 17th. Between 2010 and 2013 at Dover he was extremely consistent. In the races over that stretch he had an 8.9 average finish, 10.5 average running position and the 6th best driver rating. In 2013 his Dover results were 6th and 8th. Dover is one of four tracks where Harvick has never been to victory lane. In order for him to advance to the next round of playoffs he better get his first Dover win on Sunday. (Yahoo A Driver)

Further Recommended Reading – Dover Front Runner Rankings, Who will win the Dover AAA 400?, Fantasy NASCAR Scouting Report – Dover, Dover Loop Data Box Score From June 2015

Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth is an elite performer at Dover who can’t be counted out. In his career at the Monster Mile he’s been to victory lane twice, has finished in the top five 45% percent of the time and in the top ten 64% percent of the time. This spring he had top five potential but reportedly had suspension issues 3/4ths through the race which led to his misleading result. To give you a better idea about his level of performance here’s a link to his Yahoo Race Chart. When the checkered flag waved he finished 39th. Last fall the 20 car was very fast and was a consistent front runner. When the checkered flag waved he finished 5th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In spring 2014 he had one of the strongest cars. He started 21st, had a 5th place average running position, finished 3rd, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 17 laps. If it wasn’t for a late restart he would’ve finished 2nd. In fall 2013 he had a solid race but he was never a threat to win. In that event he started in 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, led 36 laps and finished 7th. In spring 2013 he could’ve potentially had the best car but his race was cut short. While he was leading on lap 155 he started having engine issues and then on lap 157 it blew up. For the portion of the race he did complete I would estimate his average running position was 2nd. (Yahoo A Driver)

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