Atlanta Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions

If you were like me and thought that Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 was going to be a pretty cut and dry race, it was apparent pretty quick on Friday that that wouldn’t be the case. Kyle Busch technically won the pole for Sunday’s Sprint Cup race at Atlanta, but his qualifying time was disallowed, which gave the 1st-place starting spot to his brother Kurt. And just as everyone expected (sense the sarcasm), Jamie McMurray, Trevor Bayne, Ryan Newman, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. will round out the top 5 starting spots this weekend. The full Atlanta qualifying results can be found here.

As far as practice sessions, we had two this weekend, one on Friday and one on Saturday. They were essentially at the same time (within 30 minutes) in the early afternoon and both lasted about an hour and a half. Those practice speeds can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Don’t forget to check out our notes for each as well: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. We’re set to run 500 miles on Sunday, and the track should get hotter and slicker as the race goes on. I expect the track to change a lot as the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 progresses on Sunday, which means we should see plenty of comers and goers.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For Atlanta:

1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Some people may try to tell you that starting position means something at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but that’s a lie. Qualifying here at AMS is all about running one fast lap on the edge of spinning out. With Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500, the best cars are going to be the ones that are comfortable to drive over long green flag runs. So, in case you didn’t pick up on what I was getting at there, I don’t care that Jimmie Johnson starts 19th on Sunday, because he’s consistently one of the best when we stop here at Atlanta, and the #48 Chevrolet has shown good race pace this weekend–which is no surprise to anyone. This crew ranked 3rd in ten-lap average during that final practice session and had the 3rd-fastest overall lap as well. Jimmie won this race last season despite starting 37th (remember what I said about starting position?) and that is one of his four career victories at this track. He also ended up 4th here in 2014. There are plenty of leagues where the #48 Chevrolet is going to be a good pick this weekend, especially those that award points based on place differential like NASCAR.com Fantasy Live and FOX Fantasy Auto. You’d be hard pressed to find many people that don’t have the #48 Chevrolet as one of the favorites on Sunday.

2. Kevin Harvick – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Kevin Harvick came into the race weekend as Vegas’s favorite, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t remain that when the final race odds are released on Saturday night/Sunday morning. Qualifying probably couldn’t have turned out any better for the #4 team, as there’s really nobody ahead of them to start the race that has a shot at winning the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500. You might be able to make a case for Kurt Busch, but everyone else starting inside the top 5 spots and top 10 cars at best on Sunday. Getting back to Harvick, this guy has been incredibly fast here at Atlanta–and everywhere else for that matter–over the last few years and probably should have won two of the last three events at this track. Unfortunately for Harvick fans, he didn’t win any of them, and he actually only has one career win at Atlanta Motor Speedway. You’ll remember that that victory came back in 2001 and was Harvick’s first win in the Cup Series. In practice on Saturday, the #4 Chevrolet was very quiet on the speed charts. I feel like this team was either experimenting with something or the car simply didn’t feel quite right. Harvick finally made a long run in the second half of practice and jumped up to 15th on the overall speed chart with the 18th-best ten-lap average. I’m not too concerned about the lack of speed on Saturday, and, as usual, I consider Harvick pretty much a lock for a top 5 finish on Sunday with a shot at the win.

3. Matt Kenseth – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Kenseth just missed making the final round of qualifying on Friday and will start Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 from the 13th-place starting spot. And if you’re looking for a fantasy choice that is a lock for at least a top 10 finish, Kenseth is your guy. He owns a career average finish of 12.0 here at Atlanta, which is 3rd-best among active drivers. Only Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. have better averages here. With that being said, Kenseth has never won at AMS, which is a very surprising fact when you take a step back and consider it. He does have 16 top 10 finishes here in 27 career starts, though, 10 of which were also top 5s. Kenseth has back-to-back top 5 finishes here at Atlanta coming into Sunday and hasn’t ended up worse than 13th here since the 2005 season. That in and of itself makes Kenseth one of the safest fantasy picks available on Sunday. In practice over the weekend, the #20 Toyota was 11th in Happy Hour with the 9th-best ten-lap average (4th among those whose ten-lap runs were in the first part of the session). In that final practice, it should be noted that he ran the most laps of all drivers, which is significant because that means Matt is pretty comfortable with the car. That typically isn’t very good news for the competition.