Las Vegas Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – Kobalt 400
We have quite a bit of data to go through for the Las Vegas race this week because the drivers had a lot of on-track time. There were two test sessions on Thursday followed by practice and qualifying on Friday. And then on Saturday there were two more practice sessions. Now, the good news is that some of those speeds are a lot less relevant than others, so we can focus on the ones that really matter. For example, Friday’s practice was basically for qualifying, and I typically don’t even look at those results. Test session #1 and Practice #2 (the first on Saturday) were both run very early in the morning, so those speeds aren’t as relevant because we’re not really going to see the track in that condition for the Kobalt 400 on Sunday.
Of course, all of those speeds are available via us here at ifantasyrace. To view them, click here: Test #1 — Test #2 — Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, don’t forget to read our in-depth notes for the practices as well: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Kurt Busch is on the pole for Sunday’s race with Joey Logano on the outside pole. The full starting lineup can be found here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For Las Vegas
1. Matt Kenseth – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m still a little pissed off about how Jason Ratcliff handled the penalty situation in Atlanta last weekend, and I’m sure Matt Kenseth is too. Another mistake like that and I’m going to seriously start questioning some things about the crew chief. Anyway, the positive from the Atlanta race is that the #20 Toyota was arguably the car to beat up until the penalty, which is a good sign for fantasy owners. Now we’re at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a track where Matt Kenseth has gone to victory lane on three separate occasions, and most recently in 2013. He’s also ended up 11th or better in five of his last six starts here. This is a track that suits Kenseth well and he’s going to be starting 3rd for Sunday’s Kobalt 400, so that doesn’t hurt. In practice on Saturday Matt was consistently one of the fastest drivers on track and had the 4th-best ten-lap average in the morning as well as in Happy Hour.. It’s also worth noting that Kenseth had the 2nd-best ten-lap average during Test Session #2 on Thursday, which was ran right in the middle of the day. He also posted that ten-lap average later on in the session while others were fastest right in the beginning. The #20 Toyota has been almost as solid as you can since the test sessions started on Thursday, and he has a great record here at LVMS. Kenseth should be at least a top 5 threat on Sunday and will probably be in the running for the win as well.
2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I’m not sure I know anyone that doubts how great of a combo Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus are, but if you do go ahead and replay last weekend’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. That was an excellent strategy call and maybe even better driving that worked out perfectly. The #48 Chevrolet wasn’t the best car last week (top 3 or 4, though) but they still got the win. Now that we’re at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the #48 team is looking for two in a row and they just might get that done. Jimmie is a four-time winner here in Sin City, but he hasn’t been to victory lane here since 2010. Still, three of the last four Las Vegas races have ended with the #48 Chevrolet in 6th place or better. Last season, Johnson ended up finishing 41st, but let’s not forget that he had one of the best cars in the field and led 45 laps before having to pit with tire issues. He then made his way back up through the field but ended up blowing another tire and suffering severe damage. Those types of issues you just can’t predict. Johnson will start 11th for Sunday’s Kobalt 400 and has looked solid all week. He had the best ten-lap average during Test Session #2 on Thursday, the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, and then ranked 2nd to Austin Dillon on that chart in Happy Hour. There’s no reason to think that Jimmie won’t be a top 5 pick on Sunday with a shot at the win. Are you really going to go against last week’s winner? I typically don’t.
3. Kevin Harvick – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
“The Closer” was really struggling for the first part of qualifying and I was getting pretty excited because I know what kind of car he will have for the race on Sunday. If Harvick wouldn’t have snuck in to that second round of qualifying on Friday, he was set to start the Kobalt 400 from the 31st starting spot, which would have meant Harvick would have been fantasy gold in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live and FOX Fantasy Auto. However, as things turned out, the #4 Chevrolet made it into the final round and will roll off the grid 6th on Sunday. Oh, well, there’s still plenty of fantasy points available for a good finish. It’s hard not to consider Kevin Harvick the favorite for Sunday’s race here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and for a variety of reasons. The #4 Chevrolet was the best car in Atlanta, hands down, but the race didn’t play out in this team’s favor and a bad final restart relegated Harvick to a 6th-place finish. Unfortunately that’s just what happens sometimes. Additionally, Kevin is the defending winner of this Las Vegas race, and this weekend during practice was eerily similar to last weekend: Harvick wasn’t blazing fast, but you know they’re going to be good when it counts. In Happy Hour, the #4 Chevrolet was just 9th on the ten-lap average chart and 22nd overall, but it should be much better when it counts. I know it gets boring reading about Kevin Harvick in the top 5 week in and week out but the #4 team is just that good.
