Martinsville Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – STP 500

After the Easter off-weekend, it’s time to get back to racing–and I can’t wait. The STP 500 should be a great race to watch on Sunday simply because of how everything is starting out. Yes, we have Joey Logano on the pole once again (you can see the full starting lineup here) but there are plenty of good race cars that are starting mid-pack or worse on Sunday. And then you have guys like Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Paul Menard, and Ryan Newman that all qualified in the top 5. Will they be able to come away with a good finish, though? Only time will tell. There were two practice sessions after qualifying this weekend, one on Saturday morning (speeds here) and one on Saturday afternoon (speeds here). Don’t forget to check out our notes on each of those sessions as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For Martinsville

1. Joey Logano – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $10,200 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Joey Logano is right there knocking on the door of the grandfather clock just waiting for it to bust open. It’s hard not consider him the all-out favorite this weekend since he arguably had the car to beat in both races here last season, and he’s on the pole for the 2016 STP 500 as well. It was noted in Practice #2 that the #22 team is using the same setup that they had here last fall, and if you remember back to that race, Logano probably would have led 250+ laps en route to victory lane if it wasn’t for Matt Kenseth exacting his revenge with about 50 laps to go. Still, Logano finished 3rd in last year’s spring race here at Martinsville and ran top 5 in both 2014 events at “The Paperclip” as well. As mentioned before, Joey is on the pole for Sunday’s race and had a car in Happy Hour that was decent on the long runs, ranking 16th in ten-lap average. This #22 team is pretty happy with their race car and looking to punch their ticket to the Chase early. There’s no doubt that Joey Logano will be a contender here on Sunday and should lead plenty of laps as well. Don’t over-estimate the power of the #1 pit stall, either. It matters here at Martinsville probably more than any other track. Also, track conditions are going to be quite a bit cooler on Sunday than they were on Saturday, and starting up front could help Logano a lot.

2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 24th – DraftKings Price: $10,400 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I was pretty confident in Jimmie Johnson being the #1 driver heading into this race weekend (and Vegas was as well) but that confidence has diminished a little bit. The #48 Chevrolet ended up 24th in qualifying–which means Jimmie should be a great pick in DraftKings, FOX Fantasy Auto, and NASCAR.com Fantasy Live–but as far as overall ranking, that does hurt “Six Time” a little bit. With that being said, we can’t just dismiss the fact that JJ is an 8-time winner here at Martinsville, and as long as you have a fast race car, it really doesn’t matter where you start–it just helps to start up front. Johnson was right behind teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in ten-lap average during Practice #2 (ranking 5th) and he had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour–along with the 6th-fastest overall lap. Jimmie hasn’t had a top 10 finish at “The Paperclip” since this race two years ago but he still owns the best average finish here among active drivers (7.5). With the way this season has been going for the #48 team, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went out and won this race on Sunday–although a top 5 finish is much more likely. Don’t forget that we have seen Martinsville races come down to fuel mileage before, and Chad Knaus in Jimmie Johnson can take all the risks they want considering they’re already locked into the Chase.

3. Kyle Busch – Starts 7th – DraftKings Price: $9,800 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Rowdy had his off-race at Fontana a couple of weeks ago but is poised to make a big rebound here at Martinsville on Sunday. When Kyle Busch is on his game, he’s a great fantasy pick here at “The Paperclip,” as evidenced by his six top 5 finishes in the last twelve races here. To that same point, Busch also has six finishes outside of the top 10 in his last twelve starts. So what Kyle Busch are we going to get on Sunday? My money is on the latter. Rowdy qualified 7th for Sunday’s STP 500, but when you look at the starting lineup, he’s really #2 in terms of drivers that can actually win this race. He had a decent practice session on Saturday morning, ending up 14th on the overall speed chart and 15th in ten-lap average, but the #18 Toyota was one of the fastest on the track when we got to Happy Hour, ending up 2nd-fastest in terms of overall lap and 5th-best on the ten-lap average chart. Kyle also ran the most laps in that final practice, which tells you he really likes his race car. You’ll be hard pressed to find anyone that doesn’t think Kyle Busch is a top 5 threat for the STP 500 on Sunday, and really the only negative thing I can come up with regarding Rowdy is his temper. Typically hot head drivers and short tracks don’t mix well 100% of the time, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take.