Richmond Toyota Owners 400 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Paul Menard – Paul Menard has improved as a driver at Richmond over the course of his career. Through 2/3rds of his career at Richmond he was a driver who you absolutely needed to avoid. Recently he’s become a respectable performer. In the last six Richmond races he has 1 top ten, 3 results in the teens and two results in the twenties. Over this stretch he has a 16.8 average finish, 19.5 average running position and the 20th best driver rating. Last fall he had his worst showing recently and finished 26th. Also in that race it should be noted he had a 25th place average running position and earned the 26th best driver rating. I’m not sure how much I would read into his performance that evening because he choose to play it “ultra-safe” because of Chase implications. Last spring he didn’t have a bad race. He started 15th and finished 15th. For essentially the entirety of the race he ran within a +5/-5 deviation of 15th. In September 2014 he finished 18th, had a 19th place average running position and earned the 21st best driver rating. In April 2014 he didn’t have a good race. He started in 9th and ran well for about the first 45 laps but then he started to fall back. Around lap 60 he was all the way back to 18th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 24th. In the controversial fall 2013 race he had his best performance. He finished 5th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 13th best driver rating. At the time of the Green-White-Checker by means of not pitting he was the race leader. In both spring 2013 and spring 2012 he finished 13th. At Phoenix this spring Menard was about 19th place good but had a flat tire and wrecked. (Yahoo B Driver)

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Danica Patrick – Danica Patrick has six races at Richmond under her belt and her overall average finish is 25.5. One strength of hers at Richmond is avoiding catastrophic trouble on the track. Not once has she had a major problem that led her to finishing at the very bottom of the running order. One aspect about Patrick that should be noted is that she’s shown improvement. In her last three Richmond starts she has two finishes in the teens and a 20th place average finish. Also over that stretch she has a 16th place average starting position, 23rd place average running position and the 22nd best driver rating. Last fall Patrick started in 14th but dropped in the running order like a rock to the high-twenties / low-thirties. She ran around that range until about the final 100 laps where she slowly worked her way up in the running order to her 19th place result. Last spring she didn’t really run that well and had early contact with Casey Mears which almost caused a big wreck. In the race she started 21st, finished 25th and had a 25th place average running position. In fall 2014 she started in 13th and finished 16th. That race was comprised of long green flag runs and she was the final driver to finish on the lead lap. Also in the event she had a 17th place average running position and earned the 17th best driver rating. At Phoenix this spring Patrick finished 19th and had a 22nd place average running position. (Yahoo B Driver)

Greg Biffle – I wouldn’t recommend picking Greg Biffle at Richmond. Since 2007 he’s only finished in the top ten once and over the last five races he’s finished progressively worse each event. Last fall Biffle was very uncompetitive and about the highest he got in the running order was 28th. In the race he started 38th and when it reached its conclusion he finished four laps down 31st. Additionally in the race he had a 30th place average running position and earned the 32nd best driver rating. Among drivers on power teams nobody was worse. Last spring he was about as equally bad but finished better. In that event he had a 27th place average running position and finished in 21st, two laps down. In fall 2014 he also didn’t run well. When the race reached its conclusion he finished two laps down in 19th. Also in that event he had a 17th place average running position and earned the 18th best driver rating. In spring 2014 he finished 15th, had a 15th place average running position and earned the 16th best driver rating. At Phoenix this spring Biffle finished 21st and had a 21st place average running position. (Yahoo B Driver)

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