Dover Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions – AAA 400

The races here at Dover International Speedway have always been some of my favorite to watch, and they have also been some of the easiest to predict. We simply don’t see too many new faces up front when we stop at this 1-mile track. There’s a reason that, over the last four Sprint Cup races here, there have been six drivers that have posted three top 10 finishes: Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Larson, and Clint Bowyer. Now, with that being said, and with the way the 2016 has been going, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw some craziness during Sunday’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism. It will also be interesting to see how Kyle Busch does without his crew chief, who was suspended due to rules infractions at Kansas. Finally, we’ll have to see if a car other than a Chevrolet can win here; over the last eight Dover races, seven winners have been driving Chevrolets, with the exception being Brad Keselowski in 2012, who won the race on fuel mileage.

This weekend there was one practice session held on Friday before the rain started to fall. Qualifying got washed out so the starting lineup was set by those first practice speeds. Kevin Harvick is on the pole and you can see the full AAA 400 starting lineup by clicking here. On Saturday, there were two practices held–one in the morning and one around noon. Those speeds can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. And, of course, be sure to read our notes for each: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For Dover

1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 1st – DraftKings Price: $10,400 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

I really don’t like rain on race weekends, but I have a feeling that this #4 team isn’t as upset as some other teams this weekend. The reason? Not only was Harvick awarded the pole on Friday, but this #4 Chevrolet was the best car overall, bar none, here at Dover last season. In this event, Harvick started 6th, led 91 laps, and finished 2nd to Jimmie Johnson. In the fall race last year–the one where Johnson had problems–Harvick dominated, leading 355 of the 400 laps en route to his first career win at “The Monster Mile.” There should be plenty more to come. This weekend the #4 Chevrolet was 10th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning with the 3rd-best ten-lap average. In Happy Hour, Harvick was 2nd and 1st on those charts, respectively.. In addition to being the best car here at Dover last season, Harvick has been one of the fastest at this track ever since he started racing for Stewart-Haas in 2014. Over the last four races, Kevin has never had a driver rating under 105.5 and he has led a total of 693 laps. That might not seem like a lot due to this being a 1-mile race track, but keep in mind that only five active drivers (other than Harvick) have led that many laps in their entire career here at Dover. Harvick only has one victory in 2016 thus far (Phoenix) but I think he will definitely be a force to be reckoned with here in the AAA 400 on Sunday. My gut says we see the #4 in victory lane this week. This car has been fast since the team unloaded it, and that’s usually bad news for the competition.

2. Kyle Busch – Starts 3rd – DraftKings Price: $10,500 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Rowdy may only have two wins here at Dover International Speedway but he could probably have a few more. You just knew he was going to be good at this track when he finished 2nd in both starts here during his rookie year back in 2005. Kyle’s career average finish of 14.6 here at Dover might not be appealing to some people, but let’s not forget that he has finished inside the top 5 in ten of his twenty-two career starts here (45.5%). Essentially, he just has a handful of terrible finishes at “The Monster Mile” that really drag down that average finish. Still, there’s no reason to think that the #18 Toyota won’t be a contender for the win here on Sunday. Rowdy posted the fastest lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and then in Happy Hour he was 3rd on the overall chart and 14th in terms of ten-lap average (although he made his run later in the session, which would explain that lower ranking). Kyle Busch has finished either 1st or 2nd in five of the last six Sprint Cup races, and his domination in NASCAR’s top series is honestly starting to look like what he’s done over the last few years in the Xfinity races. I honestly think that this #18 team is better than they were last season, and that should have the entire garage not only scared, but downright terrified. Kyle finished 2nd in the fall race here at Dover last season and has ended up inside the top 10 in nine of his last twelve starts at this track. P.S. I’m not concerned at all about this #18 team missing crew chief Adam Stevens on Sunday.

3. Martin Trux, Jr. – Starts 7th – DraftKings Price: $9,700 – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

After this team’s heartbreaking misfortune at Kansas last weekend, it was safe to assume that we were going to hear a lot about Martin Truex, Jr. and his Dover win. That’s all I’m going to mention of it because I’m more of a “what have you done for me lately” kind of guy–not a what did you do for me almost ten years ago in 2007. Now, with that being said, Truex has done quite a bit here at Dover over the last few years. In addition to being on that list I initially pointed out in the beginning of this post, Martin has also finished 11th or better in seven of the last ten races at this track. Surprisingly, however, his only top 5 finish here at “The Monster Mile” has been that victory way back when (damn it, I mentioned it again). However, Truex has finished 6th at Dover on five separate occasions–which, out of twenty starts, boils down to one in every four attempts (probably some kind of record)–including this same event one year ago. Truex had one of the strongest cars that day, posting a race-high driver rating of 130.3 while leading a race-high 131 laps after starting on the outside pole. This weekend, Truex will start 7th on Sunday and has pretty much had top 10 speed all weekend, ranking 7th-fastest in Practice #2 and then 7th in Happy Hour as well with the 2nd-best ten-lap average. If this #78 team can put together an entire mistake-free race on Sunday, Truex should be a great fantasy pick this weekend.