1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 6th)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat at Dover. He’s done what seems impossible and has replaced Jimmie Johnson as the best default fantasy NASCAR pick. Since he joined Stewart-Haas Racing he’s performed at a “Super Elite” level and has been good enough to win the last 5 Dover races. On aspect you have to like about Harvick is that he can race aggressively because he’s already locked into the next round. On Sunday look for him to finish in the top five, and compete for the win. In practice #1 Kevin Harvick really liked his car in race trim.
Dover Track History – Kevin Harvick is a fantasy ace at Dover. Over the last five races he has the best driver rating, led the most laps (810), has run the most fastest laps, has the best average running position (6.4) and a misleading 9.6 average finish. This spring at Dover he had a great car that I would argue was the best. In our exclusive PROS Rankings he’s ranked #1. Unfortunately continual problems on pit road, avoiding a spinning #48, and then involvement in the “Big One” led to his misleading 15th place finish. Even with all of his problems he led the most laps (117) and earned the 3rd best driver rating. Last fall Kevin Harvick was dominate and nobody had anything for him. When the checkered flag waved he finished 1st, earned a near perfect driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 355 laps. In spring 2015 he also would’ve likely won except Johnson got around him during a late restart and he couldn’t reel him back in on old tires. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 91 laps. In 2014 he was exceptionally strong in both races but walked away with misleading results because of getting flat tires while leading.
Momentum – In 5 of the last 6 races Kevin Harvick has finished in the top five. His lone exception was Chicagoland where he was burned by a caution during the pit cycle which kept him down all afternoon.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,900
2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 2nd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Dover is Martin Truex Jr.’s home track and you can count on him being a tough competitor. He’s a past champion and recently he ranks as one of the strongest competitors. With the way his team is performing week in and week out there’s absolutely no reason why he won’t be in contention on Sunday. With his team facing no pressure look for him to go all out of the win. On Sunday he’s starting in 2nd. In practice #2 during an interview he said he felt good about his speed compared to the best cars.
Dover Track History – In 4 of the last 5 Dover races Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top ten. The one race he finished outside the top ten he started in the rear of the field and came home with an 11th place finish. Over this five race stretch he has the 5th best driver rating, a 7.8 average finish and a 10.0 average running position. This spring he had one of the strongest cars and finished 9th. If he wasn’t caught up in the “Big One” which damaged his car he would’ve finished a lot better. Even with his problems he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 47 laps. Last fall he started in the rear of the field and finished 11th. That’s pretty impressive especially when you take into account the race had few cautions and his average running position was 11th. In spring 2015 he had a strong showing. He earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (131), had a 3rd place average running position and finished 6th. In 2014 he had results of 6th and 7th.
Momentum – Martin Truex Jr. has 4 straight top tens. Over these events he’s scored the most points by a healthy margin, has a 3.0 average finish and has been to victory lane twice.
Yahoo B Driver / DraftKings $10,500
Further Recomended Reading – Dover Speed Cheat Sheet, Dover Starting Lineup, Dover Practice #2 Notes, Dover Practice #2 Speeds, Dover Practice #1 Notes, Dover Practice #1 Speeds, PROS Rankings, Asterisk Mark Report, Scouting Report, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page, DraftKings Dover Scoring Trends
3) Matt Kenseth (Starting – 4th)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Matt Kenseth will be a factor at Dover. He’s the most recent champion and has performed at an elite level throughout his career. Recently at Dover he ranks as one of the best and only trouble on the track has kept him from finishing in the top ten. Performance wise since he joined Joe Gibbs Racing he’s been good enough to finish in the top ten every race. When you combine his Dover prowess along with how well he’s run in recent weeks then it’s clear he’ll have a strong showing. On Sunday he’s starting up front in 4th. Historically when he starts up front, he finishes up front at Dover. In practice #1 Matt Kenseth was really happy with his car in race trim. In that session he said he has the most compliant car he’s ever had at Dover.
Dover Track History – Matt Kenseth has been very successful at Dover. In his career at this venue he’s been to victory lane three times, has finished in the top five 46% percent of the time and in the top ten 66% percent of the time. In five of the last six Dover races he’s finished in the top 7, the one race he finished outside of that range his race wasn’t incident free. This spring he had a great car. He dodged attrition and raced his way to victory lane. In addition to finishing 1st it should be noted he earned the best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and led 48 laps. Last fall he started on the pole, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, finished 7th and led 26 laps. In spring 2015 it looked like he had top five potential but he finished 39th because of suspension issues. In the three Dover races prior to that he had results of 3rd, 5th and 7th. In his first Dover race in a Toyota he might’ve had the best car but his engine blew up while he was leading.
Momentum – In 3 of the last 4 races Kenseth has finished in the top ten. He would be a perfect 4 for 4 expect he wrecked while running well at Richmond.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,700