Homestead Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Danica Patrick – At Homestead I would look for Danica Patrick to finish between 17th and 24th. Both her Homestead track record and how she’s performed at 1.5 mile tracks suggest that’s the likely scenario. At Homestead Danica Patrick has three starts under belt and has a 20.7 average finish. Last year she was a low twenties driver. In the race she finished 24th, had a 23rd place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating. In 2014 she had her best Homestead result and finished 18th. Additionally in the race she had a 21st place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. In 2013 she had a 24th place average running position, earned the 23rd best driver rating and finished 20th. As mentioned earlier this season at 1.5 mile tracks Danica Patrick has typically finished between 17th and 24th. In nine of the ten races held at tracks of this length in 2016 she’s finished within that range. (Yahoo B Driver)
Ty Dillon – Ty Dillon will be driving the #95 this week. From a performance perspective I think he’ll likely be a high-teens to mid-twenties driver. Recently in the #95 car Michael McDowell has been a solid performer. In the five races prior to Phoenix he had an 18.6 average finish. In the #95 car at 1.5 mile tracks this year Dillon has results of 25th and 27th. I think he should be able to do better than that because the #95 team has stepped up their game. (Yahoo C Driver)
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Aric Almirola – Aric Almirola has quitely been performing better on a weekly basis. Since New Hampshire minus Kansas where he wrecked he has a 16.4 average finish. On Sunday from a performance perspective I would look for Almirola to likely be a high-teens to low-twenties performer. Homestead has been a good track for Almirola. The very reason why he’s driving the #43 can be traced back to 2010 when he was a fill-in driver for Kasey Kahne (#9 car) and finished 4th. In his career at Homestead minus his first start, and most recent he has an 11.5 average finish. Last year at Homestead it’s hard to say how good he was because on lap 46 he was taken out in a big multi-car wreck. In 2014 he didn’t have a great performance. He started 18th, finished 19th, had a 23rd place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating. It just wasn’t a great showing. In 2013 he didn’t have a great race either. He started in 19th, had a 16th place average running position, finished 16th and earned the 14th best driver rating. In 2012 he had a good performance. He finished 7th and earned the 6th best driver rating. In the Chase at 1.5 mile tracks minus Kansas where he wrecked Aric Almirola has a 23.0 average finish and a 26.0 average running position. (Yahoo B Driver)
Paul Menard – At Homestead look for Paul Menard to be a high-teens to low-twenties performer. Throughout the season in incident free races on this track type he’s almost always finished within that range. Now that we’re at the last race of the season I don’t see any reason for him to buck that trend. At Homestead Paul Menard has had some success recently. Last fall wasn’t one of his successful afternoons though. In November 2015 he finished 21st, had a 21st place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. In 2014 he finished 4th but that result didn’t come easy for him. In that event he started in the rear of the field because of an unapproved adjustment. That wasn’t a huge issue for him and he climbed up through the field at a steady pace until he reached the low teens. Also in the race he made an unexpected pit stop with 80 laps to go after he got into the wall while running in 13th. Strength wise I would estimate he was really about 13th place good but late in the race he used pit strategy. The 2013 season finale was pretty uneventful for nearly everyone, but Paul Menard. On lap 207 his car was smoking and that brought out a caution. Then with 37 laps to go his car was on fire and when he got to pit road his tire exploded (finished 39th). Before he had trouble he performed well and typically ran between 7th and 12th. In 2012 he had his second best result and finished 11th. Additionally in that race he earned the 14th best driver rating and had a 15th place average running position. (Yahoo B Driver)
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