Homestead Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions

Now that qualifying and practice is over with down in Miami, the Sprint Cup Series now just has the final 400 miles of the season left to determine the 2016 champion. All eyes will be on the four remaining championship drivers, and don’t be surprised if all four–Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch–finishes inside the top 5 here on Sunday. That’s just how it usually plays out with this format. Kevin Harvick is on the pole for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and you have to go back to row 5 to find the first championship contender. Click here for the full starting lineup. There were two practice sessions on Saturday, and those speeds can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Don’t forget to check out our in-depth notes as well: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

As always, thank you for following along this NASCAR season. Good luck in this final race, and I hope you come back to ifantasyrace in 2017 for the most in-depth Fantasy NASCAR advice around.

Final Top 25 Ranking For Homestead

1. Carl Edwards – Starts 10th – DraftKings Price: $9,600 – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Right now is Carl Edwards’ chance to finally get his redemption for the championship that got away in 2011. And although he has struggled a bit here at Homestead since that race (no finish better than 11th in the last four years), I expect the #19 Toyota to be very strong during Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400. Typically the rule with Carl Edwards is simple: if he shows up on the ten-lap average charts, he’s good. If he’s near the top, he’s very good. Well, in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, the #19 Toyota was P1 on the ten-lap average chart, and then during Happy Hour, Carl ranked 5th among those that made a ten-lap run. So, yeah, expect Edwards to have a very good race car on Sunday. He’s a two-time winner here at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and he’s been quite strong on the worn-out intermediate race tracks all season long. Carl is going to need to have the race of his life if he wants to win the 2016 Sprint Cup Series championship on Sunday, and the good news for him is that it looks like he has the car to get that done.

2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 14th – DraftKings Price: $9,600 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Unless something major goes wrong on Sunday, it’s going to be hard to beat Jimmie Johnson on Sunday. This #48 Chevrolet has probably been the strongest car on the intermediate race tracks during this year’s Chase, and it has plenty of speed in it this weekend as well. Johnson ran into some bad luck during qualifying but will still start 14th for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400. He then went out and posted the fastest lap in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, and during Happy Hour, Jimmie was 10th on the overall speed chart and ranked 9th in ten-lap average. Currently, Johnson is on a three-race streak of 9th-place finishes here at Homestead, and although he hasn’t had a top 5 finish here since the 2010 season, that should change this weekend. The #48 Chevrolet might not lead a whole lot of laps on Sunday, but it’ll be there at the end.

3. Kevin Harvick – Starts 6th – DraftKings Price: $9,600 – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Kevin Harvick may be out of the championship hunt but that doesn’t mean that he can’t go out there and win the finale here at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Average finish-wise, this is actually Harvick’s best track on the circuit despite him only having one victory in fifteen career starts here. Still, his 7.2 average finish is the best in the garage (by a wide margin; next is Carl Edwards with 9.3) and Harvick’s 86.7% top 10 finish rate at Homestead is very impressive. He hasn’t ended up outside that mark here since the 2007 season. There has been some concern from me about just how well the Stewart-Haas cars will do to end the 2016 season because of their move to Ford next year, and while they definitely haven’t been as strong in the Chase as many expected, the #4 Chevrolet is still a solid top 5 car this weekend. Typically when Harvick qualifies up front he has a very good car for the race, and he wound up winning the pole for this weekend’s Ford EcoBoost 400. He should lead quite a few laps here on Sunday and be a legitimate threat for the win as well. The #4 Chevrolet was P1 in ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday afternoon.