1) Chase Elliott (Starting – 12th)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Chase Elliott is going to win soon, the only question is when. At Las Vegas I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get his first win. He’s been knocking on the door to victory lane at intermediate tracks and eventually it will open. Chase Elliott has one advantage on many drivers this weekend. He took part in preseason testing at Vegas. Chase Elliott has been very successful in “Lowest Down Force Package” races. Minus Kentucky where he crashed he’s finished in the top five every race and has a 3rd place average finish. Last week at Atlanta he finished 5th. From a track surface perspective Michigan is closer to Vegas and last year at that venue Elliott finished 2nd both races. In practice throughout the weekend Chase Elliott has showed good short run speed and long run speed.
Las Vegas Track History – Chase Elliott made his Vegas debut last year. He ran well and was top ten good but he was collected in a wreck with 43 laps to go.
Yahoo B Driver / DraftKings $9,700
2) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 1st)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski will be viewed as a favorite at Las Vegas. He’s won 2 of the last 3 Vegas races, has won both “Lowest Down Force Package (LDFP)” races at 1.5 mile tracks, he’s fresh off a win at Atlanta and he’s staring on the pole. In races with the LDFP he’s arguably been the best driver having a series best 2.3 average finish and having a result in the top 4 every race. In Happy Hour Keselowski had the 5th quickest overall lap and the second best ten lap average.
Las Vegas Track History – At Las Vegas Keselowski has been a fantasy ace. He’s won 2 of the last 3 races and currently has four straight top 10’s. Over those four races he has the best average finish (3.0), best driver rating, is tied for the second best average running position (6.5) and has led 98 laps. Last year Keselowski had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. Additionally in the race he earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 6th place average running position and led 24 laps. In 2015 he had a solid showing. In that event he finished 7th, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 10th place average running position. In 2014 Keselowski got his first Vegas win after Dale Earnhardt Jr. sputtered on fuel at the end. Additionally in the race he earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (53) and had a 5th place average running position. In 2013 he finished 3rd.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,400
Further Recommended Reading – Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice Notes/ Practice Speeds Center, Speed Cheat Sheet, PROS Rankings, PROS Rankings Extended Edition, Asterisk Mark Report, Yahoo Start Page, DraftKings Start Page
3) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 19th)
Las Vegas Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat at Las Vegas. He’s a recent champion and after the beat down he put on the field at Atlanta you know he’s primed to have a strong showing. He’s also probably extra motivated after his late disappointment last week. In “Lowest Down Force Package” races (Atlanta, Kentucky 2016 and both Michigan 2016 events) Harvick has proven himself to be a fantasy ace. Using that package he’s finished in the top ten every race, has led the most laps, has the best average running position, run the most fastest laps and has a slightly misleading 7.0 average finish. In both Lowest Down Force Package races held at 1.5 mile tracks Harvick had the best car and was the driver to beat. This weekend Harvick has a great car and over extended long runs he’s shown really good speed.
Las Vegas Track History – Las Vegas has been a good track for Kevin Harvick. He’s a recent winner and in 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished in the top 11, the one race he finished outside of that range he didn’t have an incident free afternoon. Last year at Las Vegas Kevin Harvick had a strong showing, but you have to take into account he was sick all weekend. In that event he finished 7th, earned the 4th best driver rating and had a 5th place average running position. In 2015 Harvick had a great car that was fast over long runs. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 1st, led a race high 142 laps and had a 4th place average running position. In 2014 during his first season in SHR equipment he looked top five good but with 73 laps to go he took his car to the garage because of brake rotor issues.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,700