1) Brad Keselowski (Starting – 5th)
Texas Fantasy Spin – Brad Keselowski will be tough to beat at Texas. I think he’s a top five driver who’ll be a factor to win. On Sunday he’ll start in 5th, when he started in that position at Atlanta earlier this year he raced his way to victory lane. In practice the #2 car was quick and there’s no reason to expect him to be a fantasy letdown. One attribute you have to like about Keselowski is his momentum, he’s fresh off a win at Martinsville and outside of the Daytona 500 he hasn’t finished below 5th. This year at intermediate tracks he’s been a super-elite performer. He has a 2.7 average finish and is one of just two drivers who have finished in the top five every race. This year at the two 1.5 mile tracks visited he won at Atlanta, and would’ve won at Las Vegas if he didn’t have trouble late. Going back to last year in lowest down force package races at intermediate tracks he’s finished in the top five every race. Perhaps the most similar track that the new rules package was raced at was Kentucky and last summer at that venue (repaved, reconfigured, same tire and similar surface) he led 75 laps and raced his way to victory lane.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,500
2) Joey Logano (Starting – 4th)
Texas Fantasy Spin – On Sunday Logano will start in 4th. I expect him to run up front all race long and contend for a top five finish. At 1.5 mile tracks going back to the start of last year’s playoffs minus Charlotte (problems), he’s finished in the top six every race and has a 3.5 average finish. This year at intermediate tracks Logano has run extremely well. Over the combined three races he has a 5.0 average finish and the 5th best driver rating. Of the three tracks visited Las Vegas should prove to have the highest level of correlation and at that venue he finished 4th and earned the 5th best driver rating. In 2017 it’s hard not to like how well the #22 team is performing on a weekly basis. Outside of Phoenix they’ve finished between 4th and 6th every race. You can’t argue against that level of fantasy production.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,800
Further Recommended Reading – Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Likely Finish Ranges, DraftKings Playability Value Chart, 2017 Intermediate Track PROS Rankings, Texas Qualifying Results
3) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 1st)
Texas Fantasy Spin – On Sunday I expect Kevin Harvick to be very competitive. If he can have a smooth incident free race then I expect him to finish in the top five, and compete for the win. On Sunday Harvick’s starting on the pole, when he starts in that position he’s typically really good. This year at intermediate tracks he’s had fast cars, but he’s had problems in all three races. At Atlanta where he also started on the pole he dominated until he got a late speeding penalty, in the other two he had problems extremely early but you know he was going to be good. Last summer at Kentucky which was a very similar situation (repaved, reconfigured, same tire and same type of track surface) Harvick was the class of the field and had a great chance to win if it didn’t become a fuel mileage race. Because it became a fuel mileage race he finished a misleading 9th. It should be noted from that race he earned the best driver rating, led a race high 128 laps and had the best average running position (3.0).
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,000