Drivers have two types of fantasy value every week. They have Personal Fantasy Value, and Comparative Fantasy Value.
Personal Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver is at a certain track compared to the other venues on the circuit.
Comparative Fantasy Value is an estimation of how good the driver compares to the competition at a certain track.
The levels of fantasy value from best to worst are … Very-High > High > Medium-High > Medium > Low
Let’s talk about Martin Truex Jr.’s fantasy values for Bristol.
His Personal Fantasy Value is Medium. He runs extremely well here, but when you finish south of 20th in 6 of the last 7 races it’s hard to call this a good track for him. His bad finishes are largely the result of bad luck, not performance.
His Comparative Fantasy Value is High. I expect him to run extremely well on Sunday. I figure he’s due for a good finish at Thunder Valley. If he has an incident free race I think he’ll walk away with a good finish.