1) Kyle Busch (Starting – 1st)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch is starting to get close to victory lane and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds it at Dover. Over the last three races this year he’s scored the most points and has a 3.3 average finish. At the Monster Mile Busch is an elite performer whose finished runner-up in 2 of the last 3 races. On Sunday I think he’ll finish in the top five and compete for the win. Busch will start on the pole and that’s a very notable advantage. In Happy Hour Busch looked strong and his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best.
Dover Track History – Kyle Busch has been very successful at Dover. In his career he has two wins, has finished in the top five 46% percent of the time and in the top ten 63% percent of the time. Last fall he ran extremely well and the number you need to know about him is two. He finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 102 laps. In spring 2016 he looked 10th place good but finished 30th after being caught up in a wreck. In fall 2015 he once again finished runner-up. Additionally in that race he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 19 laps. In spring 2015 he was very competitive but finished a misleading 36th. With 24 laps to go in that race he was caught up in a wreck while he was running in 3rd.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,400
2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 2nd)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. will be a very popular fantasy option at Dover. Last fall he started in 2nd and raced his way to victory lane in dominant fashion. On Sunday he’ll start in that position again. At Dover look for Truex Jr. to finish in the top five and compete for the win. One attribute you have to like about Truex Jr. heading into the weekend is his momentum. Since Texas, minus Talladega, he’s finished in the top ten every race and has a 6.0 average finish. In practice Truex Jr. liked his car and Jeff Gordon thought the #78 looked good.
Dover Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has performed at a very high-level at Dover. Since 2014 he’s finished in the top 11 every race, has a 6.7 average finish and an 8.7 average running position. Last fall Truex Jr. had a great car and easily raced his way to victory lane. In addition to finishing first he had a 2nd place average running position and led a race high 187 laps. In spring 2016 he was very competitive and escaped with a 9th place finish despite getting caught up in a wreck. From that race it should be noted he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position, and led 47 laps. In fall 2015 he started in the rear of the field and raced his way up to an 11th place finish. That race was nearly caution less so that’s impressive. In spring 2015 he ran extremely well. In that race he finished 6th, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 131 laps. In 2014 he swept the top ten with results of 6th and 7th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,900
Further Recommended Reading – Practice Notes/ Practice Speeds Center, Speed Cheat Sheet, DraftKings Playability Value Chart, Likely Finish Ranges, Starting Lineup, DraftKings Start Page, Yahoo Start Page
3) Kyle Larson (Starting – 5th)
Dover Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson should be on your short list of favorites at Dover. On a week to week basis this season he’s been one of the strongest performers and I don’t see why that won’t be the case again. Dover has been a great track for Kyle Larson and he’s been extremely competitive. On Sunday I see him contending for a top five finish. Larson will start in 5th on Sunday. In 4 of the 5 races this season when he’s started in the top five he’s finished in the top six. In Happy Hour Truex Jr. made very long runs and his ten lap average ranked as the best.
Dover Track History – Kyle Larson has been very competitive at the Monster Mile. At Dover minus last fall’s race he has a 6.2 average result and has finished in the top eleven every race. Last fall you really can’t read into his 25th place result because he had an early electrical problem and a pit penalty at the same time which dropped him three laps down early. The race had few cautions so he wasn’t able to rally back from his problem. In spring 2016 he had a great car and if he would’ve moved Matt Kenseth at the end he would’ve won. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, led 85 laps and earned the 7th best driver rating. In fall 2015 he had a solid showing. He finished 9th and had an 8th place average running position. In spring 2015 he also ran well finishing 3rd, earning the 4th best driver rating and having an 8th place average running position.
Yahoo B Driver / DraftKings $10,300