1) Kevin Harvick (Starting – 9th)
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat in the season finale. He’s an elite performer at Homestead and he’s full of confidence following his win at Texas. At Homestead, Harvick has been very impressive. He’s a recent winner who’s finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the last three races. On top of performing at a super-elite level he’s also been extremely consistent having 9 straight top tens and a 6.9 average finish. In the Playoffs at 1.5 mile tracks Harvick ranks as one of the best. Over the four combined races at tracks of this length he has the best driver rating, best average running position and has a 3.8 average finish. In Happy Hour, Harvick had a great car that was arguably the fastest over long runs. His ten lap averages that session ranked as the 4th best. Where I would look for him to excel is over really long runs. On Sunday look for Harvick to compete for a top five, and be a serious threat to win.
Homestead Track History – Kevin Harvick performs at an extremely high level at Homestead. Over the last three races he has the best driver rating, best average finish (2.0), best average running position (3.3) and has led the most laps (179). Last year Harvick had a strong showing and was a consistent front runner. He finished 3rd, had a 3rd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led the second most laps (79). In 2015 he was also impressive. That year he finished 2nd, had a 4th place average running position, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 46 laps. In 2014 he led 54 laps and raced his way to the championship.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $9,700
2) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 2nd)
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Martin Truex Jr. will be the favorite to win at Homestead. This season he’s been historically dominant at 1.5 mile tracks. Over the ten combined races at these venues he has 6 wins, a 2.7 average finish, a 4.7 average running position, the best driver rating and has led 1,054 laps. In the last five races at these venues he’s had results of 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd. I will note that 2nd came at Texas which was the last intermediate track visited. At Homestead, Truex Jr. has some strong showings on his resume. Recent races haven’t played out the smoothest for him, but he’s been very competitive. A few weeks ago Truex Jr. took part in testing at Homestead and it’s said that he had the best car. In practice Truex Jr. had a great car. He had the fastest overall speed, and the second best ten lap average. Over long runs his crew chief thought they were the best. On Sunday look for Truex to finish in the top five, and compete for the win.
Homestead Track History – Homestead is a great track for Truex Jr. He’s come close to victory lane in the past and in 42% percent of his starts he’s finished in the top six. Between 2013 and 2006 he had a series best 6.4 average finish. The last three races here haven’t played out the best for him. Last year at Homestead he was easily top ten good but was collected in a late wreck which led to his 36th place finish. In 2015 he had an OK race. He finished 12th and had a 10th place average running position. In 2014 when he had an uncompetitive lost season he finished 17th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $11,100
3) Kyle Busch (Starting – 3rd)
Homestead Fantasy Spin – This weekend Kyle Busch will be competing for his third straight championship at Homestead. He’s a recent winner here who’s finished in the top seven in 4 of the last 5 races. In the one race he finished outside of that range he had top five potential. The #18 team has had a few weeks to prepare for this race so you know they’ll be ready. In Happy Hour Kyle Busch was happy with his car and his ten lap average ranked as the best. On Sunday look for Busch to finish in the top five and compete for the win.
Homestead Track History – Homestead has been a great track for Kyle Busch. Last year he had a strong showing. When the checkered flag waved he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 5th place average running position and finished 6th. What makes that more impressive is that around the midpoint he had to make an unexpected pit stop for a flat tire while running in 5th. It should be noted that until there was late cautions he was running in 2nd and was poised to win the championship. In 2015 Busch raced his way to victory lane after taking the lead during a late restart. Performance wise he was really 3rd place good. In addition to finishing first he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 41 laps. In 2014 he broke his axel on pit road while running in 5th on lap 117. In the two races prior to that he had results of 4th and 7th.
Yahoo A Driver / DraftKings $10,500