Strengths – Ty Dillon’s does a pretty good job avoiding “catastrophic” trouble on the track. In only four races in 2017 did he finish 30th or worse.
Weaknesses – Ty Dillon and the #13 team lack speed. It’s hard to be competitive when that’s the case. On a race by race basis he’s almost always a high-teens to low-twenties driver. In 64% percent of the races last season he finished between 15th and 25th. On good day this team is mid-teens good.
In 2017 this team had zero top tens for the season. Every other driver in the top 30 in points had a top ten.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium-High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Intermediate tracks comprise nearly half the NASCAR schedule and they haven’t proven to be good tracks for Ty Dillon. Last year on this track type he scored the 25th most points and had a 21.0 average finish. He had zero top tens, finished in the top fifteen 24% percent of the time, and in the top twenty just 47% percent of the time. Performance wise he was typically a high-teens to low-twenties driver and in 2018 I think we should expect more of the same from him.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Last year at flat tracks Ty Dillon had a very mediocre season. He scored the 21st most points and had an 18.6 average finish. Typically on a good day at these venues he was a high-teens driver.
Last year at the “Bigger Flat Tracks” he had results of 17th, 18th and 19th.
At the smaller flat tracks I think he has more of a chance of coming home with a good finish. That said his track record at those venues wasn’t spectacular. Last year at shorter flat tracks he had three results between 11th to 16th, and three results between 22nd and 26th.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Short tracks haven’t proven to be friendly to Ty Dillon. Last year at these venues he had a really tough season. He scored the 29th most points and had a 25.2 average finish. His only real chance of coming home with a good finish at these venues would be a high attrition rate. I don’t think he has any real notable fantasy value at any venue, but I think at Bristol he has his best chance to be competitive. Last year at Thunder Valley he had his best result on this track type and finished 15th.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – Medium-High
Restrictor plate tracks are wild card venues where equipment deficiencies are hidden and almost any driver is capable of sneaking in good results. That’s good news for Ty Dillon. He hasn’t proven himself at plate tracks yet, but I think he’ll likely have fantasy value on this track type and in 2018, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he could sneak in a top ten.
In 2017 at restrictor plate tracks Dillon scored the 20th most points and had a 17.6 average finish.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Ty Dillon doesn’t strike me as a road course racer, and his on track performance last season doesn’t imply confidence. Last year at road courses he scored the 26th most points and had a 23.5 average finish.
Last year at Watkins Glen he finished 19th, and at Sonoma he finished 28th.
In 2018 at road courses I think he’ll probably be about a 20th place driver at all three road courses on the schedule.