Strengths – Trevor Bayne is at his best at plate tracks, and he’s worth a roll of the dice at short tracks. In 2018 if he gets off to a fast start at intermediate tracks don’t be afraid to pick him at those venues.
Weaknesses – Flat tracks and road courses aren’t friendly venues to Bayne. It’s likely no good will come from picking him at either track type.
Track Type Fantasy Value Key = Elite > High > Medium-High > Medium > Low
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Last year at intermediate tracks Trevor Bayne started the season strong, but faded as the year went along. Early in the season he was a low-double digits driver, late in the year he was a high-teens to low-twenties driver. For the season at these venues in 2017 he scored the 21st most points and had a 19.4 average finish. In 2016 he also scored the 21st most points so that’s a trend I’ll believe in.
In 2018 at intermediate tracks I would look for Bayne to be a high-teens to low-twenties driver on a weekly basis at these venues.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – Medium
Trevor Bayne doesn’t have a lot of upside at flat tracks. He’s really not a good option at either the bigger flat tracks, or the shorter flat tracks. Last year over the combined races on this track type he scored the 25th most points and had a 22.2 average finish.
At the bigger flat tracks Bayne’s track record makes it clear that he’s nothing more than a 20th place driver. Last year at the bigger venues he had results of 20th, 20th and 21st.
At the smaller flat tracks I like him even less. Last year over the six combined races at those venues he had a 23.2 average finish.
Short Track Fantasy Value – Medium-High
Last year at short tracks Trevor Bayne was surprisingly solid. In 2017 he scored the 15th most points, had a 12.5 average finish and minus the fall Richmond race he finished in the top 13 every race. In 2018 it’s hard seeing him be that strong again, but I think he’ll definitely be worth a roll of the dice.
Restrictor Plate Track Fantasy Value – High
Trevor Bayne’s claim to fame is winning the 2011 Daytona 500. At plate tracks he should definitely be on your radar. I view this track type as his best chance of coming home with a really good result. Last year at plate tracks he had a top ten, and a wreck at each venue.
At Daytona he’s been pretty solid recently. In 3 of the last 5 races there he’s finished in the top ten. Talladega is the other plate track on the schedule and minus a wreck last spring, his average finish since 2016 is 10th. Last fall he finished 3rd.
Don’t overlook Trevor Bayne on this track type.
Road Course Track Fantasy Value – Medium
I don’t feel good at all about picking Trevor Bayne at road courses. In 5 of his 6 races on this track type he’s finished 22nd or worse. Last year he scored the 33rd most points. The two prior season’s he was better scoring the 15th (2016) and 19th (2015) most points.
At Sonoma nothing good has ever come from picking him. His average finish is 25th and all three of his results are between 23rd and 27th. At Watkins Glen he finished 9th in 2016, his other two results are 22nd and 35th.
The Charlotte road course will be making it’s debut in 2018 and I don’t see any good coming from picking him there.