Bubba Wallace – Unless something really goofy happens at Kansas I see no upside in Bubba Wallace. I would consider a result around the low to mid-twenties to be a good afternoon for him. This spring at Kansas when he made his track debut he finished in the range I’m projecting him. When the checkered flag waved he finished 23rd and had a 31st place average running position. I will note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 75 he had a flat tire and was slowly creeping around the track. A handful of laps before his problem he was running in 28th.
Matt DiBenedetto – Kansas has been one of Matt DiBenedetto’s better tracks. His average finish is 26.4 and in 3 of the last 4 races he’s finished between 22nd to 24th. Earlier this year he finished 22nd. Last fall he finished 22nd, but I’ll note the attrition rate was really high. In the two Kansas races prior to that he had results of 32nd and 24th.
Ty Dillon – It’s likely nothing good will come from picking Ty Dillon at Kansas. If you pick him I think you need to be prepared to be happy with him finishing in the low-twenties. This year at 1.5 mile tracks minus Kansas (wrecked) and Texas (benefited from attrition) he has a 27.0 average finish and a 27.2 average running position. At Kansas he’s had some limited success so there is a “trap element” about him. This spring was not one of his better Kansas races and he finished 38th after wrecking with 15 laps to go. About ten laps prior to wrecking he was running in 32nd. Also from the race it should be noted he had a 31st place average running position and earned the 32nd best driver rating. Last year at Kansas, Dillon had a great season and swept the teens. Last fall there was a ton of carnage and he finished 16th. “Performance wise” I thought he was slightly worse than his result and the carnage helped him. In spring 2017, Ty Dillon spun early on lap 59 while running in 16th but he still rebounded to come home with a 14th place finish. Additionally in the race he earned the 21st best driver rating and had a 22nd place average running position.
Ross Chastain – At Kansas I would look for Ross Chastain to be about a 25th to 30th place driver. For the season at 1.5 mile tracks he sports a 25.6 average finish and a 29.8 average running position. This spring in his Kansas debut he finished 26th, but don’t overlook his 35th place average running position. That speaks to being a driver who benefited from attrition.
Landon Cassill – At Kansas I think Landon Cassill will be a high-twenties to low-thirties driver. For him to finish better than that range he’ll need the help of attrition. This spring at Kansas he finished seven laps down in 25th. Last year when he was in a more competitive situation he had results of 21st and 23rd.