Ty Dillon – At Texas I’m not setting the benchmark high for Ty Dillon. I think he’s realistically about a 20th to 25th place performer. For the season at tracks of this length minus Kansas #1 and Las Vegas #2 he has a 23.7 average finish and a 24.7 average running position. This spring at Texas the attrition rate was unusually high and that allowed for Ty Dillon to walk away with a respectable 13th place result. From the race it should be noted he had a 19th place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating. Last year at Texas on the new configuration he didn’t do anything to inspire confidence. Last fall he finished 24th and had a 26th place average running position. In the spring he was a little better. In that event he finished 17th, earned the 17th best driver rating and had an 18th place average running position.
Matt DiBenedetto – Matt DiBenedetto isn’t a bad option at Texas, if you’re OK with a low to mid-twenties finish. In the Playoffs at tracks of this length he has results of 23rd (Kansas) and 24th (Las Vegas). This spring at Texas the attrition rate was sky high and DiBenedetto finished 16th. Last fall he finished 25th.
Regan Smith – Regan Smith has no relevant starts at Texas. All of his previous races were on the old track configuration. On Sunday I would look for him to likely be a low-twenties driver. This year at 1.5 mile tracks he has results of 12th (Las Vegas) and 28th (Kansas).
Bubba Wallace – Earlier this year at Texas when the checkered flag waved Bubba Wallace finished 8th. That’s not a typo, but it should tell you something about the attrition rate which was catastrophic. From the race it should be noted he had a 15th place average running position and earned the 13th best driver rating. On Sunday I think there’s no way he’ll repeat that performance unless the attrition rate is super high. I think he’ll likely be a low to mid-twenties performer. In the six races at 1.5 mile tracks since Texas this spring he sports a 25.5 average finish and a 25.5 average running position.
Ross Chastain – Ross Chastain had a good Texas debut this spring and finished 18th. I’ll note that’s his best finish of the season at a 1.5 mile track and as we’ve observed over the course of the year that result wasn’t typical. He was aided by heavy attrition in that race. That’s also his only race at Texas. On Sunday I would look for him to realistically be a mid to high-twenties driver.
Landon Cassill – At 1.5 mile tracks Landon Cassill is a high-twenties to low-thirties driver. For him to finish better than that, the attrition rate needs to be high. Earlier this year at Texas the attrition rate was sky high and that was good news for him. When the checkered flag waved he finished 21st, but keep in mind he finished 13 laps down. Last year in his old ride he had results of 26th and 29th.