1) Martin Truex Jr. (Starting – 3rd)
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Defending series champion, Martin Truex Jr. will be tough to beat at Homestead as he vies for back to back championships. This will mark the final race for the #78 team and I think they have a great chance to go out on top. Truex Jr. won this race a year ago, and he’s consistently been fast at intermediate tracks throughout the season. This year at 1.5 mile tracks minus Texas he’s finished in the top five every race, has a 3.3 average finish and a 6.3 average running position. At the venues with extremely high tire wear he’s been one of the best and has results of 1st (Auto Club), 4th (Chicagoland) and 5th (Atlanta). In Happy Hour, Truex Jr. was extremely fast and his 15 lap average ranked as the 2nd best. On Sunday, look for Truex Jr. to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Homestead Track History – Martin Truex Jr. has been a strong performer at Homestead. Last year during the final Stage when the championship was on the line he turned on the after burners and dominated the final segment. In addition to finishing 1st he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position, led 78 laps, finished 5th in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In 2016 he was top ten good but finished an asterisk mark 36th after getting caught up in a late wreck. He also had a few other problems in that race. In 2015 he had an OK race. He finished 12th and had a 10th place average running position.
DraftKings Price – $11,300 / Fan Duel Price – $13,500
2) Kyle Busch (Starting – 2nd)
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Kyle Busch is making his 4th straight Homestead “Final 4” appearance and on Sunday he’ll be tough to beat. He won this race a few years ago, and he’s consistently performed at high-level. In 5 of the last 6 Homestead races he’s finished in the top 7. Over this stretch minus 2014 he has a 4.0 average finish and a 4.0 average running position. Chicagoland is a similar track from a tire wear perspective and at that venue he led 59 laps and raced his way to victory lane. On Sunday, look for Busch to compete for the win.
Homestead Track History – Homestead has been a great track for Kyle Busch. Last year he was a contender. He finished 2nd, earned the 3rd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 43 laps. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In 2016, he finished 6th, had a 5th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. It should be noted until late cautions started coming out he was running in 2nd and was poised to win the championship. In 2015, Busch had a great car and raced his way to victory lane. I will note a late caution helped him and he likely would’ve finished 3rd if it didn’t come out. In addition to finishing first he earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position and led 41 laps.
DraftKings Price – $11,800 / Fan Duel Price – $13,500
3) Kyle Larson (Starting – 11th)
Homestead Fantasy Spin – Kyle Larson could play the spoiler role on Sunday and race his way to victory lane. Homestead is a great track for him and he’s been a contender to win many of the recent races. A few weeks ago after being eliminated from the Playoffs, Larson said he was going to win this race and I think he has a great chance to do so. At Homestead running the high-line is the fastest way around the track and when it comes to running that groove nobody is better than Larson. If his team can keep up with adjustments he could easily win this race. In the Playoffs at 1.5 mile tracks he’s a perfect 3 for 3 in terms of finishing in the top five. On Sunday, look for Larson to finish in the top five and be a serious threat to win.
Homestead Track History – Kyle Larson has thrived at Homestead and has finished in the top five the last 3 races. Last year he had a phenomenal performance. He won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led the most laps (145), had a 2nd place average running position and finished 3rd. In the last segment it appears his team didn’t keep up with adjustments as track conditions changed. In 2016, he was the class of the field but a late caution took away a certain victory. When the checkered flag waved he earned the best driver rating, led the most laps (132) and finished 2nd. At some points in the race he had the fastest car by quite a bit. In 2015 he had a great performance and at the end he had the fastest car on the track and was reeling in Keselowski, who was leading. If there wasn’t a late caution then he might’ve been able to win. When the race reached its conclusion he finished 5th, earned the 5th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position.
DraftKings Price – $10,000 / Fan Duel Price – $12,500