Points Finish 25th, 0 Wins, 0 Top Fives, 1 Top Ten, 14 Top Twenties, 22.9 Average Finish, 24.8 Average Running Position, 0 Laps Led, 54.47 Driver Rating
If you’re looking to pick David Ragan, selecting him at restrictor plate tracks is the way to go. He’s at his best on that track type and he’s a legitimate threat to sneak in a top ten.
Among drivers of his tier he’s a solid option at intermediate tracks, Bristol and big flat tracks.
Road courses have been a glaring weakness for David Ragan. Other low points for him are shorter flat tracks and short tracks.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – C+
David Ragan isn’t a bad fantasy NASCAR option at intermediate tracks, given his tier.
At these venues in incident free races he can be viewed as a low-twenties driver who has a good chance to finish in the high-teens. In the second half of the 2018 NASCAR season (Kentucky and onward) in 6 of the 8 races on this track type he finished between 19th to 24th. Among “low-tier” drivers that’s really about as good as it gets.
In 2019 on most weekends I would look for him to be a low to mid-twenties driver who’ll come home with some results in the teens.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – C+
David Ragan is respectable, among his tier at flat tracks. In 2018 on this track type he had a 23.3 average finish and a 24.5 average running position. In most race weekends he was typically a low-twenties driver, “Performance Wise.” In 2019 I think we should expect a similar level of performance.
In 2018 over the last four races on this track type (2 bigger flat tracks and 2 shorter flat tracks visited) he finished between 19th to 24th every race.
In 2018 at bigger flat tracks he finished in the top 24 every race and had a 19.6 average finish. At Pocono he’s been steady. He finished in the teens twice last year (16th and 19th) and in 10 of the last 11 races he’s finished in the top 25. At Indy, he finished 24th last summer and in the two races prior to that he wrecked.
At shorter flat tracks he hasn’t been as competitive. At New Hampshire he finished 29th last season, over the last five races at the “Magic Mile” he’s finished between 29th to 32nd. Last year at Richmond he had results of 23rd and 33rd. Phoenix was his best shorter flat track last season and he came home with results of 20th and 22nd.
Short Track Fantasy Value – C+
Among low-tier drivers, David Ragan didn’t have a bad season at short tracks in 2018. In half the races he finished in the top 20. For the season minus Richmond #1 he had a 19.0 average finish and a 22.8 average running position.
The short track where I trust him the most is Bristol. Over the last five races at “Thunder Valley” his average finish is 18.0. Over the last three races he’s come home with results of 12th, 17th and 17th.
At Martinsville I wouldn’t trust him. He finished 18th last fall, but in 5 of the 6 races prior to that he finished in the 20’s. In the one race he finished outside of that range he finished in the 30’s.
At Richmond his level of performance has never been high. He finished 23rd last fall and 33rd in the spring. Since 2016 minus his fall 2016 accident his best result is 19th and his average finish is 25th.
In 2019 in terms of setting his base line fantasy value I think its safe to view him as a low-twenties driver entering most weekends.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – B
David Ragan is a two-time restrictor plate winner who should never be overlooked on this track type. He’s extremely capable of sneaking in good results.
At Talladega he had problems last fall and finished 39th, in the three races prior to that he finished in the top ten and had results of 6th, 10th and 10th. In 2019 I think Talladega should be viewed as his best chance to come home with a good finish.
At Daytona last season he finished 15th in the summer and crashed in the Daytona 500 which led to him finishing 30th. Just prior to wrecking in last years “Great American Race” he was running in mid-teens. I’ll note summer races have been a lot more friendly to him recently. In the last four summer races his average finish is 12.25, in the last four Daytona 500’s his average finish is 25.25.
Road Course Fantasy Value – C
I wouldn’t feel comfortable picking David Ragan at road courses. It just isn’t a good track type for him and a low to mid-twenties finish should be viewed as a good afternoon.
Watkins Glen has never been a good track for him. His average finish is 25.8 and he’s never finished better than 19th. Last season he finished 26th, in 2017 he finished 27th.
At Sonoma, things have been actually been worse. His average finish is 30.0 but he did finish a career best 22nd in 2018. In the five races prior to that he finished in the 30’s.
Last year at Charlotte when the road course made its debut he finished 16th. I’ll note that’s inflated because of attrition.