Alex Bowman 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Alex Bowman 2019 Stats: Points Finish 12th, 1 Win, 7 Top Fives, 12 Top Tens, 14.4 Average Finish, 13.0 Average Running Position, 200 Laps Led, 82.01 Driver Rating
Strengths:
In 2020, look for Alex Bowman to be at his best at intermediate tracks. He’s extremely capable of finishing well at any of the sub-intermediate track types (1.5, 2.0, skill, and high tire wear).
This upcoming season, I also think Bowman will be solid at short tracks, superspeedways and road courses.
Weaknesses:
Alex Bowman didn’t have a good 2019 at flat tracks. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a great 2020 on that track type.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – B+
Alex Bowman is a strong performer at intermediate tracks. Last season at these venues he quietly ranked as one of the best performers in the series.
In 2019 at intermediate tracks, Bowman won at Chicagoland, finished in the top five 29% percent of the time, in the top ten 59% percent of the time and he only once finished outside the top 20. You have to love that level of consistency.
Over the 17 combined races, Bowman had an impressive 9.8 average finish. Only three other drivers were below 10.0 and they were Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick. That’s great company to be in.
In the Playoffs when every team brought their “A-game”, Bowman was able to rise up to the challenge. In the post-season he had a 6.8 average finish and had a result in the top 11 every race.
In 2020, I think it will be tough for Bowman to be as strong at intermediate tracks, but I wouldn’t count him out. Personally, I think he’ll be slightly less competitive.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – B-
Flat track racing hasn’t been a high-point for Alex Bowman, and I would avoid him on this track type. He’s not particularly good at either the bigger or the shorter-flat tracks.
In 2019 over the eight combined races, Bowman didn’t have a single top ten, had a 21.0 average finish and a 17.6 average running position. In only 4 of the 8 races he finished in the top 20.
Last year at the bigger flat tracks, Bowman finished between 15th to 21st every race. Last year at Pocono, Bowman had results of 15th and 20th. In summer 2018 he had his best result and finished 3rd. In spring 2018 he was a top ten contender, but had problems late which led to a misleading 27th place finish. At Indy, Bowman doesn’t have a single good finish to his name. Last year he finished 21st, his other three results are quite bad which weigh down his average finish to 34.3.
Last year at the shorter-flat tracks over the five combined races, Bowman had a 22.4 average finish and a 19.8 average running position. Over his four incident free races at those venues he finished between 14th to 23rd. This upcoming season at those venues I would just play it safe and view him as a mid-teens driver.
In 2020, don’t be shocked if Bowman ends up having a great season at flat tracks.
Short Track Fantasy Value – B
Alex Bowman has variable fantasy value across the three short tracks.
Bristol is the short track where I have the most confidence in him and since he’s been a full-time driver in the #88 his average finish is 12.75. Last year his results were 15th and 23rd. In 2018 he swept the top ten with finishes of 5th and 8th. The high-line comes into play there and running that groove is a strength for him.
At Martinsville, Bowman finished 30th last fall, but in the three races prior to that he had a 12.6 average finish. In spring 2019 he finished 14th. In 2018 his results were 7th and 17th.
Richmond has been his least successful short track and over the last four races his average finish is 17.5. Last year he struggled in the fall (finished 23rd) and finished 17th in the spring. In 2018 he had results of 12th and 18th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – B
Alex Bowman is a solid superspeedway driver and in the #88 when he doesn’t wreck he’s typically challenged for a top ten. Last year he finished in the top 11 in the two races he didn’t wreck.
At Talladega in the #88, Bowman has run well in the spring, but he’s had problems in both of the fall races. Last year, Bowman wrecked while running near the front in the fall and in the spring he finished 2nd. In 2018 he finished 33rd in the fall, but 8th in the spring.
At Daytona, Bowman was involved in a wreck last summer like nearly everyone else. That said, he ran well. In that event he finished 2nd in Stage #2 and was running around 11th shortly before his demise. In the two Daytona races prior to that he had results of 10th and 11th.
Road Course Fantasy Value – B+
Alex Bowman is a strong road course racer who’s flying below the radar. Since being the full-time driver in the #88 he has a 9.5 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 14 every race.
Bowman’s best road course by far is the Charlotte Roval. Last fall he overcame adversity and raced his way to a 2nd place finish. In 2018, he also ran well and finished 4th.
At Watkins Glen, Bowman has a pair of 14th place finishes over the last two seasons.
At Sonoma, Bowman finished 14th last year and 9th in 2018.
