Points Finish 4th, 8 Wins, 22 Top Fives, 28 Top Ten, 31 Top Twenties, 8.3 Average Finish, 8.3 Average Running Position, 1,469 Laps Led, 109.3 Driver Rating
Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer who’s capable of winning on any given Sunday. Of the 24 tracks on the schedule he’s won at all of them, except the Charlotte Roval which of course has only been visited once.
In 2019 I think Kyle Busch will have a great season. Big changes are being rolled out and I think he’s the best in the series at adapting. He won the first race with the COT, he won at Kentucky when the “Lowest Down Force Package” made its debut and he won at Indy when the “Highest Down Force Package” made its debut. He’s a versatile driver and he has a great organization who’ll give him what he needs to be successful.
This upcoming season with the exception of plate tracks I would view Busch as a weekly top five contender.
Kyle Busch is a strong performer at plate tracks, but outside of spring Talladega races this track type has been brutal for him over the last couple seasons. In 2019 I would avoid him on this track type of you’re in an allocation league.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – A
Kyle Busch is a premiere intermediate track performer and in 2019 I don’t expect that to change despite the new rules package. He’s a quick adapter and I have the utmost faith in Joe Gibbs Racing’s engineering department in terms of them giving him winning equipment.
Last year at intermediate tracks he was a phenomenal performer. Over the 17 combined races he scored the 2nd most points, won 3 races, had 10 top fives, 15 top tens, had a series best 6.8 average finish and had the second best average running position (6.9). In 2017 on this track type he scored the 5th most points.
In 2019 at intermediate tracks I would look for Busch to win a good amount of races and typically be a top five contender on a weekly basis.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – A+
Kyle Busch is the “King” of flat tracks. At both the smaller and the bigger flat tracks he should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar. Last year on this track type over the eight combined races he scored the most points, he had 4 wins, 7 top fives, finished in the top ten every race, had a 2.4 average finish and a 5.8 average running position.
At shorter flat tracks he’s the premiere performer in the series. Last year in those five races he won 3 events and finished in the top 2 every race.
At the bigger flat tracks he’s also arguably the best in the series. Last year over those three races he had 1 win, a 4.0 average finish and a 6.7 average running position. At Indy he’s been a dominant force in recent seasons, and at Pocono he’s won 2 of the last 3 races and has five straight top tens.
Short Track Fantasy Value – A+
Kyle Busch is the premiere short track driver in NASCAR. At all three venues he’s a favorite to win. Last year on this track type he was the best. He scored the most points, won half the races and had a series best 4.8 average finish. At all three short tracks in 2019 he should be viewed as a top five performer who has a great chance to win.
Martinsville is his best short track right now and he currently has seven straight results in the top five. Last fall he started on the pole, led 100 laps and finished 4th. In the spring he finished 2nd. In 2017 he had results of 1st and 2nd and led a combined 458 laps.
At Bristol he’s always tough to beat, but trouble creeps up on him far too often. Over the last 9 races he only has 2 incident free races. Last summer he was a top five contender but had trouble late which led to his 20th place finish. In spring 2018 he led 117 laps and raced his way to victory lane. In summer 2017 he led 156 laps and also won.
At Richmond you won’t find a better default pick. Last year he pulled out the broom and had a season sweep. Overall in 6 of the last 7 Richmond races he’s finished in the top ten.
Plate Track Fantasy Value – A-
Kyle Busch is a good plate racer, but I can’t say the same about his results. Talent wise on this track type he’s one of the better drivers, but incident free races haven’t been a common occurrence. That said, in 2019 I would look for him to compete for a top ten every race, but its important to note he carries risk and if you’re in an allocation league his fantasy value is much higher elsewhere.
At Daytona, Busch is absolutely one of the best, but his results are quite bad. In the last six straight races I think he’s been a top five contender. That said, people who look at his four straight results of 20th or worse would never know it. Last summer he ran well but crashed while running in the top five which led to his 33rd place finish. In last year’s Daytona 500 he had a couple of flat tires and his first happened while he was running in the top five. In 2017 he ran well in both events but trouble struck twice. In 2016 when he had his two most recent incident free races he came home with results of 2nd and 3rd.
At Talladega he’s capable of performing at a very high-level, but of course trouble is never far. I will note he has done a better job finishing here. Over the last seven races he has four results in the top 13. I will note he has trended finishing better in spring races. Over his last three spring races he has two results in the top 3 and a 6th place average finish. In the last three fall races his average finish is 27.6. Last year he finished 26th in the fall and 13th in the spring.
Road Course Fantasy Value – A
Kyle Busch is a strong road course racer who’s arguably the best in the series. At all three venues in 2019 I think he’ll have a good chance to compete for the win.
Watkins Glen is his best road course. He’s a two-time winner who’s finished in the top ten in 12 of the last 13 races. Over the last four races his average finish is 4.5. Last year he had a phenomenal car and if he didn’t get a pit road penalty he may have very well been the driver to beat. When the checkered flag waved he finished 3rd and led 31 laps.
At Sonoma he’s been great in recent seasons. He won in 2015 and over the last four races his average finish is 4.5. Currently he has back to back 5th’s.
Last year at Charlotte he was a top ten contender but finished 32nd after getting caught up in a late restart wreck that took out many of the top competitors.