Phoenix (ISM Raceway) Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Kyle Busch – Nobody was better than Kyle Busch at ISM Raceway (Phoenix) in 2018 and on Sunday he’ll be a favorite to win. He was the best driver at shorter flat tracks last year, and he’s arguably been the best at ISM Raceway in recent races. Last year at shorter flat tracks over the five combined races he had 3 wins and had a 1.4 average finish. At Phoenix over the last seven races he has a series best 3.3 average finish and a series best 5.3 average running position. Last year, he dominated in the desert and swept the top two. Last fall, he had a stellar car and raced his way to victory lane. In addition to winning he finished 7th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 117 laps and had a 4th place average running position. Last spring, Busch had a great car. He finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 128 laps. Also in the race he won Stage #1 and would’ve won Stage #2 if there wasn’t a late caution in that segment. In fall 2017 since he was already locked into the Homestead season finale I can’t say he raced with full effort. In that event he finished 7th, had a 7th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. In spring 2017, Kyle Busch was the class of the field but the late caution took away a certain victory. In the race he earned the best driver rating, finished 3rd, had a 3rd place average running position and led a race high 114 laps. With 6 laps to go he had a 3.25 second lead over second place Kyle Larson. In the three races prior to that he had results of 2nd, 4th and 4th.
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Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a super-elite performer at ISM Raceway (Phoenix) who’ll be one of the drivers to beat. I think he’ll finish in the top five and compete for the win. At ISM, he’s a 9-time winner who has 11 straight results in the top 6. Over the last five races he has the 2nd best average finish (4.2), the 3rd best driver rating and the 3rd best average running position (7.0). In recent races he’s been strong, but he hasn’t been historically dominant like he’s been in the past. In 4 of the last 5 races he’s finished between 4th to 6th. In 2018, he had a great season at Phoenix. Last fall he started on the pole, finished 5th and led 73 laps. I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 72 while he was leading (led every lap until that point) he slowed on the track because of a flat tire which dropped him off the lead lap back to the high-twenties. I think that caused some slight damage but he rebounded nicely. In spring 2018, he raced his way to victory lane and led 38 laps. In addition to winning he earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 3rd place average running position and led 38 laps. In fall 2017, Harvick was a solid top five performer. He finished 5th, had a 6th place average running position, finished 5th in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. In spring 2017, Harvick started in 23rd and raced his way up to a 6th place finish. I will note he was slightly better than his result and if the end of the race stayed green he was on pace to finish 3rd. In 6 of the 7 Phoenix races prior to that he had 5 wins and 6 results in the top two. Last year at shorter flat tracks he ranked as one of the best. On this sub-track type over the 5 combined races he has 2 wins and had a 2.8 average finish.
Chase Elliott – Chase Elliott will be a factor at ISM Raceway who should be near the top of your fantasy NASCAR radar. He’s thrived at Phoenix and has emerged as one of the top drivers at shorter flat tracks (ISM, Richmond and New Hampshire). In 2018 on this sub-track type he scored the 3rd most points, had a misleading 7.4 average finish and a 6.2 average running position. At Phoenix, Elliott has performed well in all of his starts. Minus a misleading result last fall he has a 6.8 average finish in the desert. Last November at Phoenix, Elliott had a great car and was a top five contender but finished a misleading 23rd after wrecking late while running near 5th. In the race he won Stage #1, finished 7th in Stage #2, had a 7th place average running position and led 16 laps. Last spring, Elliott had a strong showing. He started 3rd, finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 6th place average running position. In the race he was happy with his car and it was mentioned that the longer he ran, the better his car got. In fall 2017, he was impressive and had his best Phoenix race to date. He finished 2nd, had a 5th place average running position and led 34 laps. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 9th in Stage #2. At the end of the race he drove very aggressively and took the lead, but at the very end Kenseth reeled him in and took home the trophy. In spring 2017 he had a great car and was one of the strongest competitors despite finishing 12th. In the race he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, led 106 laps, finished 4th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. I will note he faded late and if there wasn’t a Green-White-Checker caution he likely would’ve finished 8th. In 2016 he swept the top ten and had results of 8th and 9th.
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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier