Dover Fantasy NASCAR Front Runner Rankings

Daniel Suarez – Dover has been a good track for Daniel Suarez and on Sunday I think he’ll be a top ten contender. Dover has been a great track for him and he’s a perfect 4 for 4 in terms of finishing in the top top ten. His overall average finish is 6.8. Last fall at Dover, Suarez finished 10th, but take note his average running position was 17th. With 11 laps to go before the late mayhem ensued he was running in 14th. Last spring he had a great race and ran well throughout the event. He finished 3rd, earned the 5th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. Additionally, he finished 4th in Stage #1 and 6th in Stage #2. In fall 2017 he ran really well, he finished 8th, earned the 9th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. In spring 2017 he had a strong Dover debut. He finished 6th, had a 10th place average running position and earned the 9th best driver rating. There was a lot of attrition, but when you take that into account he was legitimately top ten good. Also in that race he finished 10th at the end of Stage #1, and finished just outside the top ten at the end of Stage #2.

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Erik Jones – Erik Jones has four starts under his belt at Dover and sports a 12.3 average finish. Last fall he finished in the top five, in his other three races he finished between 12th to 18th. Last October at Dover, Erik Jones had his best performance and finished 4th when the checkered flag waved. Additionally, he had an 11th place average running position and earned the 12th best driver rating. It should be noted however that with 11 laps to go before late mayhem ensued he was running in 11th. Last spring, he had his worst race at Dover and finished 18th. I will note he wasn’t as bad as his result. Late in Stage #1 with a few laps remaining he was forced to pit under green for fuel. Prior to his problem he was running just outside the top ten, this problem dropped him off the lead lap and back into the thirties. He never really recovered from it. In 2017, he had a respectable rookie season at “The Monster Mile.” In fall 2017 when the checkered flag waved he earned the 11th best driver rating, finished 12th and had a 13th place average running position. In spring 2017 he had a good Dover debut. He finished 15th, had a 10th place average running position and earned the 8th best driver rating. I will note that result is misleading. There was a late wreck and I feel pretty certain he was collected in the carnage, or at the least it cost him quite a few positions. Just prior to the late caution coming out he was running in 11th.

Kyle Larson – Dover has been a good track for Kyle Larson. He’s come close to victory lane in the past and his overall average finish is 8.5. In 9 of his 10 races at “The Monster Mile” he’s finished in the top 12. Last fall he had a solid showing. He finished 12th, had a 14th place average running position and earned the 14th best driver rating. Last spring at Dover he had a good race despite starting in the rear of the field and overcoming a pit road penalty. When the checkered flag waved he finished 10th and earned the 11th best driver rating. In 2017, Larson was a contender to win both races. In fall 2017 he had a great car. He finished 5th, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 137 laps. Additionally, he won Stage #2 and finished 6th in Stage #1. In spring 2017 nobody was better than him. In the race Larson earned the best driver rating, led 241 laps, finished 2nd and had a 3rd place average running position. If there wasn’t a late caution, Larson would’ve easily raced his way to victory lane. I will note picking Larson is somewhat risky. 2019 hasn’t been a great season for him and at non-Super Speedway’s his last four results are 18th or worse.

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