Dover Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is a super-elite performer at Dover who’ll be tough to beat. He’s a recent winner and on Sunday I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. At the “Monster Mile” he’s a 3-time winner who’s finished in the top five 43% percent of the time and in the top ten 61% percent of the time. One quick word of warning, spring races have been trouble spots for him. Over the last five spring Dover races he’s finished outside the top 15 and has a 31.8 average finish. That said, it’s time for that trend to end. Last fall at Dover he had a good car and the number you need to know about him is 8. He finished 8th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 8th best driver rating. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 7th in Stage #2. Last spring he had a great car and was a top five contender, but finished a misleading 35th after his drive shaft broke shortly after the midpoint. At the time of his problem he was running in 3rd. In the race he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. In fall 2017 he raced his way to victory lane after passing Chase Elliott with two laps to go. In addition to winning he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 30 laps. Additionally, he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 4th in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he had a great car but finished a misleading 16th. He had quite a few problems in that race (wheel fell off during his first pit stop, burned by a caution during the pit cycle and made an unexpected pit stop) but if his race would’ve been incident free he was a top five contender. In fall 2016 he had a great car. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, had a 2nd place average running position, earned the 2nd best driver rating and led 102 laps.

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Martin Truex Jr. – Martin Truex Jr. is a premiere performer at Dover who should be on your short list of favorites. On Sunday, I think he’ll finish in the top five and compete for the win. Since 2014 at Dover he’s only once finished outside the top 11. In 4 of the last 5 Dover races he’s finished in the top five. Last fall, Truex Jr. had his worst Dover race in a long time and finished 15th. I’ll note that’s a misleading result. During a debris caution with 60 laps to go while he was running in 3rd he was caught speeding on pit road. From the race I’ll note he finished 10th in Stage #1 and 3rd in Stage #2. Over the five Dover races prior to that he had the best driver rating, the best average finish (4.2), the best average running position (4.2) and he led the most laps (387). Last spring, Truex Jr. had a phenomenal car. He finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In Stage #1 he made an unexpected pit stop but in Stage #2 he finished 7th. In fall 2017, he had a fast car. He started on the pole, finished 4th, had a 3rd place average running position and led 51 laps. Additionally, he finished 3rd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he had a great car. He won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 102 laps, finished 3rd and had a 4th place average running position. In fall 2016 he was impressive and raced his way to victory lane. When the race reached its conclusion he had a 2nd place average running position, led a race high 187 laps and had a race high 82 fastest laps.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick will be tough to beat at Dover. Last year, nobody was better and he dominated both races. On Sunday, I would look for him to finish in the top five and compete for the win. At Dover, Harvick has performed at an elite level. He’s the defending champion of this particular event and in 5 of the last 8 races he’s finished in the top ten. Last year at “The Monster Mile” he was the class of the field in both races. Last fall, Harvick had the field covered but finished a misleading 6th. In the race he won Stage #1, won Stage #2 and led 286 laps. Unfortunately, his race wasn’t incident free. With 78 laps to go while he was the leader he pitted twice because of loose wheel. At some points in the race he had a 10 second lead! Last spring, nobody had anything for him. He finished 1st, earned the best driver rating, had a 2nd place average running position, led 201 laps and ran 113 fastest laps. Additionally, he won Stage #1 and Stage #2. In fall 2017, he had a great car and was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 17th. On lap 229 while he was running around 6th he made an unexpected pit stop for a loose wheel that dropped him two laps down. That doomed his afternoon in a race that lacked cautions. In spring 2017, Harvick had a strong car but finished a misleading 9th. “Performance wise” I thought he was top five good but a caution during the pit cycle with 71 laps to go dropped him from about 4th to 16th. Additionally from the race it should be noted Harvick finished 3rd in Stage #1, 6th in Stage #2 and earned the 5th best driver rating.

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Top Tier Elite Picks > Front Runners Rankings > Mid Pack Predictions > The Low Tier