Michigan Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch is an elite performer at high-speed intermediate tracks who’ll be tough to beat at Michigan. He’s run extremely well here and right now he’s arguably the best performer at 2.0 mile ovals. Over the last four races held at tracks of this length he has a 2.8 average finish, a 5.0 average running position, he’s led the most laps and has the best driver rating. This spring at Auto Club he clobbered the competition leading 134 laps and easily racing his way to victory lane despite his race not being incident free. At Michigan, Busch currently has four straight top tens. Over the last four races he has a 6.0 average finish and a 6.8 average running position. In 2018 at MIS, Busch had a great season. Last summer he started 2nd, finished 3rd, had a 5th place average running position and led 22 laps. Additionally, he finished 2nd in Stage #1 and 2nd in Stage #2. In spring 2018, Kyle Busch had a good performance in the rain shortened event. He qualified 3rd but failed pre-race inspection and as a result he started in the rear of the field. That wasn’t a problem for him. On lap 51 he raced his way up to 8th. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th. In summer 2017 he had a good car and finished 10th. Throughout the race he ran well. He finished 7th in Stage #1, 9th in Stage #2, had a 9th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. I will note his race wasn’t incident free. During the Stage #1 caution he made a self-inflicted mistake and came down pit road before it was open which dropped him from 7th to the high-twenties. In spring 2017 he had a great car that I would argue was the best. If there wasn’t late cautions, I think he would’ve raced his way to victory lane. When the checkered flag waved he finished 7th, had a 3rd place average running position, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 40 laps.

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Brad Keselowski – Michigan is Brad Keselowski’s home track and he should be considered a favorite. Michigan has been a stellar track for him and you have to love his level of performance at high-speed intermediate tracks this year. He recently won at Kansas and I consider that to be a mini-Michigan. At Auto Club, the other 2.0 mile oval on the schedule he finished 3rd this spring. At Michigan, Keselowski has come close to victory lane and in 8 of the last 10 races he’s finished in the top ten. Last summer, Keselowski had his best Michigan result and finished runner-up. Additionally, he earned the 4th best driver rating, had a 10th place average running position and finished 9th in both Stage #1 and #2. Closing out the race he was at his best. Last spring, Keselowski was a consistent front runner. He finished 6th, had a 6th place average running position, finished 6th in Stage #1 and 7th in Stage #2. In August 2017, Keselowski arguably had the best car, but pit strategy and a poor late restart led to his misleading 17th place finish. In the race Keselowski started on the pole and led 103 of the first 110 laps. Near the end of Stage #2 there was a caution and many drivers pitted, but he didn’t. Later some more pit strategy and a wild restart hurt him. From the race it should be noted he won Stage #1 and finished 2nd in Stage #2. In spring 2017 he showed top ten potential, but when the checkered flag waved he finished 16th. From the race it should be noted he earned the 11th best driver rating and had an 11th place average running position. Prior to the last 40 laps he typically ran right around 10th. In the six Michigan races prior to that he had a 5.5 average result and finished between 3rd to 9th every race.

Martin Truex Jr.– Martin Truex Jr. has never won at Michigan, but on Sunday he’ll be a contender. He’s one of the premiere performers at 2.0 mile ovals and since 2017 at tracks of this length he has the 2nd best average finish (7.1), the 2nd best average running position (8.1) and the 2nd best driver rating. At Auto Club this spring he finished 8th. At Michigan, Truex Jr. has been a successful performer and in 4 of the last 8 races he’s finished in the top 6. Last summer, Truex Jr. ran well but had misleading result. He finished 14th, had a 13th place average running position, led 25 laps (pit strategy) and earned the 9th best driver rating. I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 16 while he was running around 13th he spun. Later on lap 118 while he was running in 5th he ran out of gas and got penalized because pit road was closed (near the end of the stage). That dropped him two laps down. In spring 2018, Truex Jr. had a tough race and finished 18th. He just never seemed to run well which was head scratching. In 2017, Larson won both races but Truex Jr. was arguably the best performer. In August 2017, Truex Jr. had the race won but a late caution which setup a Green-White-Checker restart cost him the race. When the checkered flag waved he finished 2nd, earned the best driver rating and led 57 laps. Additionally, he finished 4th in Stage #1 and won Stage #2. In spring 2017, Truex Jr. had a strong showing. He won Stage #1 and Stage #2. When the checkered flag waved he finished 6th, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position, led 62 laps and ran the most fastest laps (50). Going back to Richmond, Martin Truex Jr. has won every other week. If that trend holds true he’ll be hoisting the trophy on Sunday.

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