Texas Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Daniel Hemric – At Texas, I think Daniel Hemric is a high-teens to low-twenties driver. This year at 1.5 mile tracks minus Kansas #2 and the race at Texas this spring he’s finished between 17th to 24th every race, has a 20.3 average finish and an 18.7 average running position. Earlier this year at Texas in his track debut, Hemric was likely a high-teens performer, but he didn’t have an incident free race. On the last lap of Stage #1 he was out of gas and pitted before pit road was open. Then later on lap 256 while he was in the high-teens he had a tire go down. When the checkered flag waved he finished 33rd, but take note of his 21st place average running position.
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Bubba Wallace – At Texas, I really don’t see Bubba Wallace being any better than a low to mid-twenties driver unless the attrition rate is high. In 2019 at tracks of this length minus Kansas #2 where he crashed he has a 25.1 average finish and a 25.0 average running position. At Texas, Wallace has a misleading 18.7 average finish over his three combined races. Earlier this year in the Lone Star State he was a low-twenties performer. He finished 23rd and had a 23rd place average running position. Last fall at Texas he didn’t run well. He finished 25th, had a 21st place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. In spring 2018 which was a super high-attrition race he finished a misleading 8th. Don’t read into that result at all.
Ty Dillon – At Texas, I would look for Ty Dillon to be a high-teens to mid-twenties driver. That’s largely been his weekly level of performance at 1.5 mile tracks this year. At Texas on the new track configuration, Dillon has finished between 17th to 24th in 4 of the 5 races. Earlier this year at Texas he was a low-twenties driver. He finished 21st, had a 21st place average running position and earned the 20th best driver rating. Last fall in the “Lone Star State” he was also a low-twenties driver. He finished 22nd, earned the 22nd best driver rating and had a 21st place average running position. In spring 2018, the attrition rate was unusually high and that allowed for Ty Dillon to walk away with a respectable 13th place result. From the race it should be noted he had a 19th place average running position and earned the 22nd best driver rating. In 2017, Dillon had results of 17th and 24th.
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