Phoenix (ISM Raceway) Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions

Chris Buescher – At Phoenix, I think Chris Buescher will likely prove to be a mid to high-teens finisher. This year at shorter-flat tracks minus the fall Richmond race he has a 17.7 average finish and a 16.0 average running position. At Phoenix, Buescher currently has back to back teen results and his other five finishes are 27th or worse. This spring in the desert, Buescher had his best Phoenix performance and he came home with a 16th place finish. That said, take note his average running position was 20th. Last fall, Buescher had his second-best race here, but keep in mind the bar is low. When the checkered flag waved he finished 18th, had a 24th place average running position and earned the 25th best driver rating. In spring 2018 he didn’t run well and finished 29th. I’ll note his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 146 while he was running in 32nd he had a flat tire and slapped the wall hard. He never ran well prior to that so it probably didn’t have an impact on his result.

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Paul Menard – At Phoenix, look for Paul Menard to be a mid to high-teens driver. This year over the four combined races at shorter-flat tracks he has a 16.8 average finish and a 17.3 average running position. At Phoenix in 3 of the last 5 races he’s finished between 15th to 21st. This spring at Phoenix, Menard performed within the range I’m projecting. He finished 17th, earned the 17th best driver rating and had a 16th place average running position. Last fall he was really bad. He finished 29th and had a 33rd place average running position. In the race he started in the rear of the field and never ran well. By lap 89 he was three laps down. I think it’s clear he likely had some sort of nagging issue. In spring 2018, Menard didn’t have a good race and on lap 191 while he was running in 24th he backed his car into the wall. That marked the end of his race and led to his 36th place finish. In 2017, Menard had results of 15th and 21st.

Ty Dillon – Ty Dillon has proven to be a respectable fantasy option at Phoenix and his track record is likely a lot better than you think. Since 2016 minus spring 2018 he has a 15.2 average finish and he’s had a result in the top 19 every race. Earlier this year in the desert, Dillon was a respectable mid/low-tier driver and he walked away with a 15th place finish. Additionally, he had a 19th place average running position and earned the 19th best driver rating. Last fall, he had a forgettable afternoon. He finished 19th, earned the 23rd best driver rating and had a 24th place average running position. In spring 2018, he didn’t have a good race and finished three laps down in 30th. His average running position for the afternoon was 25th. In the three Phoenix races prior to that he had results of 11th, 16th and 15th. This year at shorter-flat tracks, Dillon has a 19.5 average finish. On Sunday, I’m going to view him as a high-teens driver who might be able to finish marginally better.

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