Bubba Wallace 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2019 Stats: Points Finish 28th, 0 Wins, 1 Top Five, 1 Top Ten, 23.9 Average Finish, 24.4 Average Running Position, 1 Lap Led, 53.6 Driver Rating
Strengths:
In 2020, look for Bubba Wallace to be at his best at superspeedways (plate tracks) and short tracks. At superspeedways his ceiling is the highest, and at short tracks he’s proven that he can be a sub-20th place finisher, which is good for him. 62.5% of his results in the top 20 (5 of 8) last year were on that track type.
Weaknesses:
The #43 team lacks competitiveness on a weekly basis. In 2020 he led as many laps as he had top tens (1). Outside of short tracks and plate tracks last year he only had one other top 20 finish for the season.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – C-
Bubba Wallace is far from being a competitive performer at intermediate tracks, in fact he’s statistically the worst performer I’m writing a fantasy preview on for 2020 (Yes, I don’t dip into D’s). In 2019 on this track type over the 17 combined races he finished in the top 20 just once! His lone top 20 finish was a 20th at Dover in the fall. Over the combined races he had a 26.5 average finish.
In 2020, I really don’t see any upside in picking him on this track type and it’s probably safe just to view him as a default mid-twenties driver on a weekly basis.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – C+
Last year at flat tracks, Bubba Wallace was typically a low to mid-twenties driver, but he did have one really bright spot. Last fall at Indy he had a spectacular performance and finished 3rd. That seemingly came out of nowhere, but he legitimately ran well. At Pocono, the other big flat track he had results of 21st and 22nd for the season.
Last year at the shorter-flat tracks, Wallace finished between 22nd to 27th in 4 of the 5 races. At Richmond in the Playoffs he bucked that trend and had his best shorter-flat track performance of the year and finished 12th.
To play it safe in 2020, I would just view Wallace as a low to mid-twenties driver across the board on this track type.
Short Track Fantasy Value – B-
Last year, Wallace was at his best at short tracks and in 5 of the 6 races he finished in the top 20. Over the combined races his average finish was 17.2.
On short tracks, Bristol has been a bright spot on the schedule for Wallace. He’s had some quality performances there and minus an accident in summer 2018 his average finish is 16.6. That’s really good for him. Last year at Thunder Valley he had results of 14th and 20th.
At Martinsville, Wallace finished in the teens twice last year. He finished 13th in the fall and 17th in the spring.
At Richmond, Wallace had a great performance last fall and finished 12th. In spring 2019 he had his lone short track result south of 20th and finished 27th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – B-
If you’re looking to pick Bubba Wallace, I would strongly consider doing so at a superspeedway. He’s had some good runs on this track type in the past and has shown potential.
Daytona ranks as arguably his best track. He finished 2nd in the 2018 Daytona 500 and in 4 of his 5 races he’s finished in the top 15. I’m pretty certain you can’t say that about him at any other track on the schedule. Last year at Daytona, Wallace finished 15th in the summer and in the Daytona 500 he crashed and finished 38th. Minus his crash at Daytona last February his average finish is 11.5.
At Talladega he hasn’t fared as well. Last year he finished 24th in the fall (3 laps down) and crashed in the spring near the start while running in the top five (finished 39th). In 2018 he finished in the teens twice and had results of 16th and 19th.
Road Course Fantasy Value – C-
If you pick Bubba Wallace at a road course, you’re asking for trouble. His average finish at all three venues is south of 25th, and he’s 0 for 6 in terms of finishing in the top 20. In 2020 if you pick him on this track type you better be prepared for him to finish in the mid-twenties.
Watkins Glen ranks as his best road course, but take note of his 26.5 average finish. Last year he finished 28th, in 2018 he finished 25th.
At Sonoma, his track record is pretty similar. He finished 26th last year, and 29th in 2018.
The Charlotte Roval is statistically his worst track on the schedule and his average finish over his two starts is 30th. Last season, Wallace finished 24th which is his best overall result at a serpentine track. In 2018 he crashed and finished 36th.
