Cole Custer 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Cole Custer 2019 Xfinity Series Stats: Points Finish 3rd, 7 Wins, 17 Top Fives, 24 Top Tens, 9.0 Average Finish, 922 Laps Led
In 2020, Cole Custer will be driving the Stewart-Haas Racing #41. This is a great car, and Custer will be finding himself in a competitive situation on Day #1.
This upcoming season I think there’s a good chance Custer will be a high impact driver for fantasy racers. He’s a driver who’ll often be overlooked, but he’ll earn his fair share of good results. Among the upcoming crop of rookie drivers, I think there’s a good chance he’ll be the top prospect on many race weekends.
In 2020, look for Custer to be a Playoff contender, but probably fall short because some costly rookie mistakes will be made along the way.
Strengths:
Cole Custer is a driver without a track record in NASCAR’s top series, but I’m going to speculate he’ll likely be at his best this upcoming season at intermediate tracks and shorter-flat tracks. I think he’ll also likely have dark horse potential at bigger flat tracks and maybe even short tracks.
Weaknesses:
Plate tracks have been a glaring weakness for Custer in the lower series, so I don’t see any reason to target him except for viewing him as a driver with out of sync potential who’s due to “dodge the big one.”
Being a rookie is also a weakness. Rookies make mistakes, and veterans are far too happy to give them a “teachable moment” which can often be to their demise.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – B
In 2020 at intermediate tracks, I think there’s a good chance that we’ll see Cole Custer be at his best. He’s in quality equipment, and he’s demonstrated prowess on this track type in the lower series.
In 2019 in the Xfinity Series he ranked among the best and he raced his way to victory lane at wide variety of intermediate tracks including Auto Club, Chicagoland, Kentucky, Darlington and Dover.
Last season in Cup when Suarez was behind the wheel of the #41, this team had a 13.0 average finish at intermediate tracks. I view Custer as a more talented driver so I think he has a good amount of upside at these venues this upcoming season.
In 2020 at intermediate tracks, I would typically view Cole Custer as a low to mid-teens driver who’ll get a handful of top tens. That said, also expect some rookie mistakes to be made along the way.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – B
Cole Custer shouldn’t be overlooked at flat tracks in 2020. At both the bigger and the shorter-flat tracks I think he’ll have sleeper potential.
In 2019 in the lower series at shorter-flat tracks, he ran extremely well and over the five combined races he had 1 win, finished in the top four every race and had an impressive 2.4 average finish. I think it’s fair to assume he might just have a knack for that form of racing and will likely compete for a top ten or two in 2020.
Last year at the bigger flat tracks in the lower series, Custer didn’t disappoint. He won at Pocono and finished 7th at Indy. This upcoming season at these venues I think there’s a good chance he’ll compete for a top ten.
Short Track Fantasy Value – B
Cole Custer will have dark horse potential in 2020 at short tracks. In the lower series I think he’s demonstrated that he has upside. In 2019 on this track type in the lower series minus Bristol #2 he went 3 for 3 in terms of finishing in the top 3. In 2018 in the lower series his average finish at these venues was 8.25.
At Richmond in the lower series, Custer was very successful last season. He won in the spring and finished 3rd in the fall.
At Bristol last season in the Xfinity series, Custer finished 3rd in the spring and then had trouble in the summer and finished 22nd. In 2018 his results were 4th and 8th.
Martinsville isn’t visited in the Xfinity Series, when Custer most recently raced there in 2016 in the Truck Series he finished 7th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – C+
Cole Custer might sneak in good results at superspeedways. He’ll have a great car underneath and a lot of Ford teammates to work with, but his track record is a little troubling on this track type from the lower series.
Over the last three years on this track type against lesser competition (9 races) he has 1 top ten, 2 top fifteens and his other 6 results are 22nd or worse.
At Daytona in the lower series over the last three years he has zero top tens and a 23rd place average finish. In five of those six races he had a result between 14th to 26th.
At Talladega, Custer finished 9th in 2018, but his other two results are 32nd (2019) and 26th (2017).
In 2020 on this track type I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him have success at these venues, but you need to weigh the risk because of his track record.
Road Course Fantasy Value – B-
Road courses can be tough for rookies, and Cole Custer doesn’t really strike me as a driver who’ll have a high fantasy ceiling in 2020 at these serpentine venues.
That said, Cole Custer had a successful 2019 in the Xfinity Series on this track type and over the four combined races he had an 8.25 average finish and had a result between 7th to 10th every race. That’s very respectable, but against drivers in the top series where the competition is much tougher I really don’t see that translating into a good afternoon.
In 2020 at road courses, I would view Cole Custer as a mid to high-teens driver. To play it safe I would lean towards the higher end of that range.
