Jimmie Johnson 2020 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Jimmie Johnson 2019 Stats: Points Finish 18th, 0 Wins, 3 Top Fives, 12 Top Tens, 17.4 Average Finish, 15.6 Average Running Position, 131 Laps Led, 78.75 Driver Rating
In 2020, Jimmie Johnson’s version of the “Salute to you tour” will commence as the legendary 7-time champion makes his series farewell.
Johnson has amassed 83 wins and ranks 6th on NASCAR’s all-time wins list, just one short from tying Darrell Waltrip and Bobby Alison. If he gets two wins then he can leap frog them, so that’s a lot of motivation for him in 2020. That said, since winning the 2016 championship he’s had a drop off in performance. He hasn’t won since Dover in spring 2017, and he hasn’t even amassed a double digit amount of top fives over the last three seasons (9 total). His top ten finish percentage has also taken a downturn and over the last three years he’s been between 31 to 33% which have been career lows.
In 2020, I would look for Johnson to have a mini bounce back season. I don’t think he’ll be operating at “prime levels”, but I do think he’ll be marginally better than he’s been in recent seasons. I think he’ll be extra motivated, I think the #48 team will be a little more competitive and I think he’ll get more breaks from the competition.
This upcoming year, I think Johnson will make the Playoffs, but probably have an early exit. Since 2014 minus his championship season his average points ranking is 12.6. I think he’ll likely finish right around that point range.
Strengths:
In 2020, look for Johnson to be at his best at 1.5 mile tracks, Dover, Richmond, Bristol, Sonoma and the Charlotte Roval. Also, don’t be surprised if Johnson sneaks in good results at superspeedways.
Weaknesses:
Jimmie Johnson’s decline is troublesome, but will he drop off even more? “Father Time” is undefeated, but I’m hoping he’ll have an uptick in performance as he makes his farewell.
In 2020, I would be the most weary of picking Johnson at Indy, Darlington, Michigan and Watkins Glen.
Intermediate Track Fantasy Value – B
Jimmie Johnson is a legendary performer at intermediate tracks, but there’s no doubt he’s had a drop in production in recent seasons. Historically on this track type, Johnson ranks among the best of the best and they’ve propelled him to championships. In 2019 over the 17 combined races on this track type, Johnson had 2 top fives, 6 top tens and a 15.8 average finish.
I will note, 1.5 mile tracks were a key strength for him in 2019. At those venues last season since Texas #1 minus Kentucky and Texas #2 he had an 8.1 average finish and an 11.1 average running position.
In 2020 on this track type, I think Johnson will typically be a top ten contender at 1.5 mile tracks, and at the other venues I think he’ll be a mid-teens or better driver.
Flat Track Fantasy Value – B
Jimmie Johnson is a solid performer at flat tracks, but I’ll note I like him a lot more at the shorter-flat tracks these days.
In 2019 at shorter-flat tracks minus New Hampshire where he had problems he finished between 8th to 14th every race and had an 11th place average finish. In 2020 at the three shorter-flat tracks, I’m going to view Johnson as a low double-digit driver who has a good chance to finish in the top ten.
At big flat tracks, the #48 team has lacked success and since 2016 he only has one top ten at each track. At Indy, Johnson wrecked last year and finished 35th. In 3 of the 5 races prior to that he finished in the mid-teens.
At Pocono, Johnson has three straight results in the teens. Last season he finished 15th and 19th. In 2018 he finished 17th in the summer and 8th in the spring.
Short Track Fantasy Value – B+
Jimmie Johnson is a quality option at short tracks who’ll have upside in 2020 after having a down year in 2019.
Richmond is Johnson’s best short track and since fall 2014 he’s finished in the top 12 every race. Last season, Johnson had results of 10th and 12th. In the three races prior to that he had results of 8th, 6th and 8th.
At Martinsville, Johnson is a legendary performer, but since winning in fall 2016 he hasn’t even had a top ten. Last year, Johnson had his worst season and had results of 24th (didn’t run well) and 38th (crashed). In the four races prior to that he had results of either 12th or 15th.
Bristol has been a pretty solid track for Johnson. He finished 19th last summer (involved in an accident), but in the six races prior to that he finished in the top 11. Last spring he finished 10th. In 2018 he had results of 3rd and 9th.
Superspeedway Fantasy Value – B
Last year at superspeedways, Jimmie Johnson was at the extremes at both tracks. He swept the top ten at Daytona, but at Talladega he crashed in both races.
At Daytona, Johnson has been respectable in recent races and in 3 of the last 5 he’s finished in the top 12. Last year, Johnson finished 3rd in July and 9th in February. His two top tens made him one of just two drivers who swept the top ten last year. In the pre-season Shootout he emerged victorious after causing a massive “Big One” at the end. In 2018, he DNF’ed in both races and had results of 23rd and 28th.
Last season at Talladega, Johnson crashed in both races and had results of 33rd and 38th. In 3 of the 4 races prior to that he finished in the top 12. In 2018 his results were 7th and 12th.
Road Course Fantasy Value – B+
Jimmie Johnson is a very capable road course racer and at Sonoma and the Charlotte Roval, he has a good amount of fantasy value.
At the Charlotte Roval, Johnson is 2 for 2 in terms of finishing in the top ten. He finished 9th in 2019 and in 2018 he nearly raced his way to victory lane but spun at the end and finished 10th.
At Sonoma, Johnson has been very solid over the years and since 2009 he hasn’t finished worse than 13th. That said, he’s dropped off some and over the last four races he’s finished between 11th to 13th. In the 7 races prior to that he finished in the top ten.
Watkins Glen has been his least successful road course and over the last four he’s finished 19th or worse. Last year he finished 19th. I would avoid Johnson at that serpentine venue.
