Credit: Brandon Wade/Getty Images for NASCAR

This weekend at Kansas, the practice schedule was a little more rational than the one in Texas last week. There were two practice sessions on Friday afternoon. The first was one hour and 20 minutes long and Happy Hour was an hour and a half. There were many cars that sandbagged in first practice to get an early qualifying draw, which will happen on Saturday at noon Eastern time. As I said in my Preview earlier this week, in the 12 total Sprint Cup races ran here at Kansas Speedway, the pole winner averages a finish of 12.1 and 42.5% of the top 10 qualifiers in those races also finished there.

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ATTENTION: The NASCAR.com Live Leaderboard had some technical difficulties with the Happy Hour speeds. Fifteen drivers were missing and I have no way of getting their average speeds unless NASCAR.com updates their page, which I will continue to monitor. Below you will find three different average speeds charts: those who I have data for both practices, those who I have just for first practice, and the go-or-go-homers. Sorry for the inconvenience, but if you know anything about NASCAR.com, this shouldn’t be surprising.

Important Practice Notes: Joey Logano blew his engine without even completing a lap to start off first practice and didn’t get back on the track until Happy Hour. He will start from the back of the field in Sunday’s race. Soon after, Kurt Busch spun coming off of turn four. There wasn’t a whole bunch of damage to the #51, though. In Happy Hour, Tony Stewart was in the wall for the second week in a row, although this time the team didn’t bring out the back-up car.

In the first practice session, the five fastest drivers were:
1. Kyle Busch – 173.728 mph
2. Carl Edwards – 172.900 mph
3. Kasey Kahne – 172.546 mph
4. Landon Cassill – 172.469 mph
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 172.276 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

In terms of ten-lap average, the top five for first practice were:
1. Kyle Busch – 169.301 mph
2. Tony Stewart – 169.156 mph
3. Jeff Gordon – 167.381 mph
4. Jamie McMurray – 166.579 mph
5. A.J. Allmendinger – 166.330 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for practice one.

In “Happy Hour”, the fast five were:
1. Jimmie Johnson – 174.955 mph
2. Mark Martin – 174.317 mph
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – 173.801 mph
4. Greg Biffle – 173.310 mph
5. Denny Hamlin – 172.883 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

When it came to ten-lap average, the best for Happy Hour were:
1. Kasey Kahne – 168.565 mph
2. Mark Martin – 168.272 mph
3. Carl Edwards – 168.240 mph
4. Matt Kenseth – 168.165 mph
5. Jimmie Johnson – 167.916 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour.

 Average Practice Speeds:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets. I have found over the years that this is much more accurate as to whether or not someone has a car that is good for one lap or one that can consistently be fast. These numbers, however, can be skewed if a team puts new tires on frequently or rarely changes the tires.

Drivers With Data From Both Sessions:

Drivers With Data From Just First Practice:

 Go-or-Go-Homers’ Average Speeds:

Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images for NASCAR

Can Smoke Win Again In The Lonestar State?

I’m going to go off of history at Texas and how drivers have done on the intermediates this year mostly when making my picks for the Samsung Mobile 500 over practice speeds because I think the practices were somewhat worthless due to the fact that the cars weren’t on the track under any condition that will be what it will be like for the race. I’m still going to use the speeds, though, because I like to have current data, and it doesn’t hurt to be fast in alternate conditions. In case you missed it, my Average Practice Speeds article from earlier can be found by clicking here. Martin Truex, Jr. won the pole for Saturday night’s race–edging out Matt Kenseth–and the complete starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Projected Start & Parkers: Mike Bliss, Michael McDowell, Scott Riggs, and Josh Wise, and J.J. Yeley.

My Probable Yahoo! Lineup: Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex, Jr., Trevor Bayne

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Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Samsung Mobile 500:

6. Kevin Harvick – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I’m a little scared to pick Harvick this week after the major disappointment a couple of weeks ago in Martinsville, but as I always say, the key to winning in fantasy racing is to forget about things quick. “Happy” has been good on the intermediates this season–with finishes of 11th and 4th–and he has the fifth-best average driver rating in those two races (chart here). The #29 was 5th on the average speed chart but didn’t end up making a run of ten consecutive laps in either practice, which I don’t like. I’m going to check out the crew chief notes tomorrow to see if Shane Wilson says anything about this Chevy.

7. Denny Hamlin – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Denny said this is the best car he has ever had at Texas. With that being said, this is the same guy that said his car was the best for two months straight last season. After that, I kind of stopped listening to Hamlin, but I still note things he says. Anyway, Denny has eight top 10s in thirteen starts at Texas and won both races here in 2010. His average finish of 10.2 here is second-best in the series. Hamlin was 11th on the average speed chart and ended up in 12th in terms of ten-lap average in Happy Hour. This ranking is probably too high but the next four or five are real close in my mind and Hamlin was pretty strong at Fontana.

8. Ryan Newman – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The Rocketman still has top 10 potential in my mind even though he hasn’t looked great all weekend (except in qualifying). He was 20th in Happy Hour when it came to ten-lap average and Newman wound up in 18th on the average speed chart. In the two intermediate track races of 2012, the #39 has ended up 4th and 7th, and Newman has the seventh-best average driver rating in those two races (chart here). Also, you know I don’t like to go against the most recent winner. Newman hasn’t finished better than 11th in the last six Texas races, but he also hasn’t finished worse than 20th, so at least he’s consistent.

9. Clint Bowyer – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Clint and the #15 has been somewhat disappointing this weekend, but his teammates are super fast and this is a good track for him (seventh best on the circuit, statistically). In twelve starts here, Bowyer owns seven top 10s and an average finish of 13th. He’ll start the Samsung Mobile 500 about mid pack (18th), but he started there in the last race here and finished a solid 9th. I could see it happening again. Bowyer was 10th on the average speed chart and was 15th in Happy Hour when it came to ten-lap average. He finished 6th at Las Vegas and 13th at Fontana.

10. Mark Martin – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

When Mark Martin speaks highly about his car, I listen. However, when he says it’s “great,” lately it simply means it has top 10 potential and that’s about it. The #55 turned the fastest lap on Thursday and was in the top 5 for ten-lap average in Happy Hour. On the overall average speed chart, Martin ended up 19th. He struggled here last season, but six of the last eight Texas races have ended with Martin in the top 12. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him around there on Saturday night, either.  I have him as “Medium Risk” because Martin hasn’t been as good as advertised on the intermediates yet this season (18th at Las Vegas and 12th at Fontana).

11. Kasey Kahne – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

As I said in my Preview earlier this week, Kahne just needs to get a finish, and he’ll probably do exactly what he did in Fontana and be conservative and bring the #5 Chevy home in one piece. I see him as top 15 material going into the race but he could end up top 10 by the end of it. Kahne was 2nd on the average speed chart but just 17th in terms of ten-lap average.  He’s “High Risk” for obvious reasons. In the last four events here, Kasey has finished 3rd, 21st, 13th, and 5th. His career average finish here is 19.6. If you put Kahne on your roster(s) this weekend, I hope, for you’re sake, he doesn’t wreck…again.

12. Kyle Busch – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

During Happy Hour, it was reported that Rowdy said the #18 was basically junk, but he says that all the time so you can make up your mind on whether he’s serious or not. He put the #18 Toyota in 21st on the average speed chart–which is nothing out of the ordinary–and was 8th in Happy Hour when it came to ten-lap average. As I said in my Preview earlier this week, I wasn’t real sure what to expect out of Kyle Busch this weekend in Texas, and that still holds true now after qualifying. He arguably had the best car in Fontana and owns an average finish of 16.2 here, with just five top 10s in thirteen career starts.

13. Tony Stewart – Starts 29th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Very rarely will you see a driver go from #1 in my Preview to being on the “Avoid” list in my Predictions, but Smoke almost accomplished that this weekend. Neither of his cars have had any speed at all and going to a backup just put this team behind that much more. Still, the #14 has a new engine in it and this is the same chassis now that Stewart won with at this track last November. Now it’s going to come down to the adjustments by the team, and if they go the wrong way to start the race, Stewart could find himself a lap down quick. I don’t see that happening, though, and I’m expecting a top 15 for Smoke, with a top 10 possible. It’s hard to say how good this car could be due to the limited track time. He had the 9th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour.

14. Carl Edwards – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I believe DW used the term “devil car” to describe the #99 Ford during qualifying. It’s almost surprising that Edwards, Kenseth, and Biffle are all on the same team because their cars are so much better than Cousin Carl’s. He was 4th on the average speed chart, but that’s to be expected. What kind of worries me is that Edwards never made one single run of ten consecutive laps in either practice session. Although it’s not as bad as on a short track, I take that as the team was searching the entire time. Carl has an average finish of 15.5 at Texas and has recorded six top 10s in his fourteen career starts at this track.

15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The Blue Deuce has been a top 15 car at both intermediate tracks in 2012 and I expect that to continue at Texas on Saturday night. He has a good starting spot (tied for the best of his career here actually) and has finished in the teens in two of the last four events here. Keselowski was one of four drivers to go over 100 laps in practice, and judging by his low placement on the average speed chart, they were probably working on the long runs. BK ended up 16th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. His team mate, A.J. Allmendinger, looks pretty sporty as well, and is coming off some momentum with a 2nd-place finish in Martinsville. Keep an eye on him.

Just Missed The Top Fifteen…A.J. Allmendinger, Paul Menard, Marcos Ambrose.

Three Sleepers For Saturday Night:

1. Kurt Busch – His practice speeds in Happy Hour really caught my eye, and although I’m not leaning on them too much this weekend, this car was driven to a 12th-place finish by Landon Cassill at Michigan last year. Kurt was 7th on the average speed chart and even 7th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. A top 15 wouldn’t surprise me…but neither would a DNF. Busch has to get some luck soon, right? He won here in 2009.

2.

Those To Avoid For The Samsung Mobile 500:

Juan Montoya – Copied from my Preview on Wednesday: “In the seven starts here that Montoya has finished at least one lap down, he owns an average finish of 26.6. His average driver rating in the first two intermediate tracks this year has been 59.0. I wouldn’t expect much out of the #42 this weekend.” He ran a total of 62 laps in both practice sessions combined and couldn’t find speed at all.

Jeff Gordon – There’s just no reason to take the risk of picking Gordon this week. He hasn’t shown much speed this weekend and has finished 23rd or worse in three of the last four Texas races. Jeff’s average driver rating in the first two intermediate races of 2012 is 86.7 and this team has just seemed a bit off on them once again to start out the season (remember last year?). With the way his luck has been going, just wait until Jeff gets a good run under his belt before picking him on tracks where he isn’t awesome.

Aric Almirola – There are three better options than the #43 this weekend in the C group. I’d rather use Almirola on short tracks because he’s been very disappointing on the cookie cutters thus far in 2012.

Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images for NASCAR

The schedule for this weekend was pretty different than what we usually see on a Sprint Cup weekend (at least as far as I can remember). There was a 2-hour practice session on Thursday from 5:30 to 7:30 pm (EST) followed by Happy Hour, which was one-and-a-half hours on Friday from 3:00 to 5:30 pm. This year’s Samsung Mobile 500 is set to start a little after 7:00 pm on Saturday, so the cars really weren’t on track for practice in race conditions. Take these numbers for what they’re worth in your mind.

Be sure to come back once my post-qualifying Predictions for this weekend’s race are posted, and be sure to check out the new ifantasyrace.com Premium Content (click here). Also, follow me on Twitter if you’d like–@FanNASCARPredic.

Important Practice Notes: Brad Keselowski had a problem early in the first practice that they took a while to diagnose. It wasn’t really reported on much, but last I heard, the team couldn’t find anything wrong but BK still said something felt wrong (and his speeds showed it). Tony Stewart hit the wall very early in Happy Hour. They brought out the backup car immediately.

In the first practice session, the five fastest drivers were:
1. Mark Martin – 189.427 mph
2. Greg Biffle – 189.221 mph
3. Kevin Harvick – 189.208 mph
4. A.J. Allmendinger – 188.930 mph
5. Regan Smith – 188.877 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

In terms of ten-lap average, the top five for first practice were:
1. Regan Smith – 180.801 mph
2. Casey Mears – 177.629 mph
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – 177.131 mph
4. No other driver ran ten consecutive laps
5. No other driver ran ten consecutive laps
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for practice one.

In “Happy Hour”, the fast five were:
1. Trevor Bayne – 184.641 mph
2. Greg Biffle – 184.370 mph
3. Matt Kenseth – 184.351 mph
4. Clint Bowyer – 184.269 mph
5. A.J. Allmendinger – 184.005 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

When it came to ten-lap average, the best for Happy Hour were:
1. Greg Biffle – 179.473 mph
2. Jimmie Johnson – 178.991 mph
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – 178.873 mph
4. Mark Martin – 178.780 mph
5. David Ragan – 178.774 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour.

 Average Practice Speeds:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets. I have found over the years that this is much more accurate as to whether or not someone has a car that is good for one lap or one that can consistently be fast. These numbers, however, can be skewed if a team puts new tires on frequently or rarely changes the tires. I eliminated all of the skewed laps for certain drivers when Stewart hit the wall as well of all of the laps ran by Smoke in his first car.

Go-or-Go-Homer’s Average Speeds:

Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images for NASCAR

Tony Stewart – I know I wouldn’t want to bet against him in the Samsung Mobile 500. Stewart has now won the last four intermediate track races in a row. Can he make it five? Absolutely. His intermediate track winning streak started last fall at Texas. In the 2011 fall race he led 173 laps and had a second place average running position. I fully expect Stewart to be the top prediction by many experts as to who will win the Samsung Mobile 500.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is the defending champion at Texas Motor Speedway. Last spring he started 4th, led 169 laps and had an average running position of 2nd. Since 2007 Kenseth has absolutely dominated the competition. In this time span he has the best average finish (5.7, only driver with a single digit avg finish), best average running position (8.6), best driver rating (109.9), ran the most laps in the top fifteen (84.8% of laps ran), and he’s led the second most laps (441). Kenseth has been really impressive across the board this year and I think there’s no question he’ll be one of the drivers to beat Saturday night.

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Jimmie Johnson – I like Johnson every week but I’m a little luke warm on him this week. Johnson has had awful luck this year. The #48 team still hasn’t put together a full race this year at their best. Another thing that makes me a little nervous about picking Johnson is that he really hasn’t been that good in the last three races at Texas (9th, 8th and 14th). Those aren’t bad finishes but I want more out of a “Top Tier Elite” driver when I pick them. In seventeen races at Texas Johnson has one win and twelve top ten finishes.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – In 2000 Dale Earnhardt Jr. won his very first race at Texas. With the way he’s performed on the track this year he could very well be poised for a second win. At Las Vegas (1.5 mile track like Texas) Earnhardt Jr. led 70 laps and finished 10th. At California (2.0 mile intermediate) he finished 3rd. Earnhardt Jr. has been really good on long runs this year and at Texas there will be plenty of them. Last year at Texas Junior finished 8th and 9th.

Denny Hamlin – Last year Denny Hamlin finished 15th and 20th at Texas but in the three previous races he finished 1st, 1st and second. The #11 Toyota looked really good at Auto Club Speedway and I think that will carry over to Texas. Since his TMS debut in the fall 2005 race Hamlin has the second best average finish in the series (10.2) and he’s only finished lower than 20th once. That’s the definition of a safe pick.

Discount Code to save 25% off on a membership this week is : Texas

Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images for NASCAR

Ryan Newman – Since 2009 all of Ryan Newman’s Texas finishes have been within the 11th through 20th place range. This year Ryan Newman has been strong on intermediate tracks. He finished 4th at Vegas and 7th at Fontana. So far in 2012 on this track type he’s averaged 39 points per race and has an average running position of 8.5. Newman’s a good driver but in the Samsung Mobile 500 he falls just short of a Top Tier Elite Pick.

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Mark Martin – If your fantasy league rewards qualifying points I think Mark Martin should be one of the drivers who you consider. In the two intermediate track races of 2012 he’s qualified 1st and 3rd. In 2011 Mark Martin had a rough year at Texas, but in 2010 & 2009 he recorded finishes of 3rd, 6th, 4th and 6th. I think all of the early indicators are pointing towards Mark Martin having a good performance in the Samsung Mobile 500.

Martin Truex Jr. – Texas has been a good track for Truex Jr. In the last three Texas races when he wasn’t involved in accidents he’s finished 8th, 9th and 14th. In fact Truex has more top ten finishes at Texas then he does at any of other 22 tracks. So far 2012 has been a really good year for Truex and it’s likely this trend will continue in the Samsung Mobile 500. On intermediate tracks this year he’s finished 17th (Las Vegas) and 8th (Auto Club). Although he won’t challenge for the win he’s a good sleeper pick.

Credit: Jeff Zelevanksy/Getty Images for NASCAR

Similar to a couple of weeks ago in Phoenix, the Cup cars only had practice time on Friday with two sessions (both of them being one-and-a-half hours long). Qualifying will be held on Saturday morning and then the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 is set to start around 1:00 pm eastern time on Sunday. Weather shouldn’t be a factor this weekend. The familiar faces were up front on Friday and I expect the same on Sunday. If any driver didn’t make a ten-lap run in either practice session, I would suggest avoiding them this weekend.

Be sure to check after qualifying for my post-qualifying predictions for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. Also, follow me on Twitter – @FanNASCARPredic — you can ask me for advice if you’d like!

Important Practice Notes: Jeff Gordon said that his car this weekend was the best he’s ever had at Martinsville “this early,” which was during the first practice session. Other than that, nothing major happened.

In the first practice session, the five fastest drivers were:
1. Jeff Gordon – 93.899 mph
2. Kyle Busch – 93.804 mph
3. Denny Hamlin – 94.077 mph
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 93.798 mph
5. Ryan Newman – 96.376 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

In terms of ten-lap average, the top five for first practice were:
1. Jeff Gordon – 94.148 mph
2. Jimmie Johnson – 93.899 mph
3. Kyle Busch – 93.757 mph
4. Greg Biffle – 93.731 mph
5. Brian Vickers – 93.712 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for practice one.

In “Happy Hour”, the fast five were:
1. Jeff Gordon – 97.028 mph
2. Kurt Busch – 95.937 mph
3. Brad Keselowski – 95.728 mph
4. Ryan Newman – 95.550 mph
5. David Stremme – 95.463 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

When it came to ten-lap average, the best for Happy Hour were:
1. Kevin Harvick – 94.535 mph
2. Jeff Gordon – 94.496 mph
3. Clint Bowyer – 94.494 mph
4. Martin Truex, Jr. – 94.315 mph
5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 94.301 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour.

 Average Practice Speeds:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets. I have found over the years that this is much more accurate as to whether or not someone has a car that is good for one lap or one that can consistently be fast. These numbers, however, can be skewed if a team puts new tires on frequently or rarely changes the tires.

Go-or-Go-Homer’s Average Practice Speeds:

Matt Kenseth Fantasy NASCAR

Matt Kenseth – Last fall Kenseth was the victim of Brian Vickers. Unfortunately for him Vickers went kamikaze on him. He was having a very good race and clearly had top ten potential (Yahoo! race chart). Despite his wreck he still had the seventh best average running position (10th). In the spring 2011 race he finished 6th. If you’re in an allocation league this is not the week to pick Kenseth.

Carl Edwards – Edwards has either finished 8th or 9th in three of the last four races at Martinsville. Despite this fact I really don’t think the #99 was that fast last year. In the spring race he finished 18th and in the fall race he finished 9th. Last fall he went lap down under green and had a 17th place average running position. I would contend that if this was a 400 lap race he would’ve finished around 20th. If you don’t believe me check out his Yahoo! race chart. I think people will look at his recent stats and pick him this week but I urge you to avoid him.

Jeff Burton – Burton is a dark horse driver who I think might be worth a look. In thirty five races at Martinsville he has one win and sixteen top tens. His career average finish is 14.6. In the last two years at Martinsville he’s been good in three of the four races. His only bad race was last spring. He didn’t lead any laps in 2011 but in 2010 he led 140 laps in the spring and 134 in the fall.

Joey Logano -Since 2009 Logano has the 8th best average finish in the series at Martinsville(13.8). I think he’s really benefited from using Denny Hamlin setups. He’s never led a lap but he does have four top thirteen finishes. If you use loop data you might want to look the other way. At Martinsville his driver rating ranks as the 19th best. Logano’s Martinsville career highlight is his second place finish in 2010.

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya is a sleeper pick who you might want to consider for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. He has a 14.7 average finish and he’s only finished outside the top sixteen three times in ten races. Last spring he finished 4th and had a 11th place average running position. He had a good run last fall but was involved in a late accident. Without the accident I believe he would’ve finished around 13th.

Kurt Busch – Did you know that Kurt Busch hasn’t had a top ten finish at Martinsville since he drove a Ford for Jack Roush! Kurt Busch needs a good finish here but his track history suggests this could be quite difficult. Martinsville is a “skill track” and if he enters with a positive attitude he might just get a good finish.

 Brian Vickers – Remember him last year? How could you forget! In case you did here’s the video. Something tells me he won’t be getting much respect on the track in the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. I think he’ll be a driving with a Bulls-Eye on him. Even with all the wrecking last fall he looked pretty good on the track. His Yahoo! chart doesn’t lie. In three of the last six Martinsville races Vickers has finished 11th or better. If he avoided problems last fall he would easily have four finishes of 11th or better in the last six.

Kasey Kahne – Early in his career Kasey Kahne almost got his first career victory at Martinsville. Despite his near victory in 2005 Martinsville has not been a good track for Kahne. His last top ten at NASCAR’s oldest track was in 2006. Since then his best finish is 14th and he’s averaged a 22.1 finish. I believe there is hope this weekend though for fantasy players who have Kahne on their team. He’s in Hendrick equipment this race and that’s a big plus. All of his wrecks this year do make him a risky proposition though.

Greg Biffle – I hope you’re not contemplating picking Greg Biffle for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. Statistically Martinsville ranks as one of his worst tracks. In eighteen races he’s only finished in the top ten twice. In fact he’s only finished in the top fifteen four times. The Ford’s have been better at Martinsville lately but picking the #16 shouldn’t be on your radar this week.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger is a driver who might sneak up on fantasy racers this week. In the last three Martinsville races he’s finished 12th, 14th and 11th (2011 fall). Last fall he was really impressive. He led 19 laps, had a 9th place average running position and posted the 6th best driver rating. All of the other drivers who had a higher driver rating are Martinsville Top Tier Elite drivers. He’ll have a better pit crew in this race so a top ten might just be in the cards for him (last year his pit crew proved troublesome). Keselowski was strong in his Dodge last year so I think the likelihood of a good finish is all the higher.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex is a high risk driver at Martinsville but I think he has potential which might entice some fantasy racers this weekend. Last fall he finished 8th and had a 13th place average running position. In the 2011 spring race he was involved in an accident and finished 40th. His results were somewhat similar in 2010 (finished 5th in the spring race, finished 29th in the fall race). Each year lately he’s been getting a top ten finish once a year at Martinsville so the question is will it be this race? From a career long perspective Martinsville has not been a good track for Truex.

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Make sure you read the full spectrum of ifantasyrace.com Goody’s Fast Relief 500 fantasy NASCAR rankings

Top Tier Elite > Front Runners > Mid Pack Projections > Drivers To Avoid

Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images for NASCAR

Rain, Rain Stay Away

If you haven’t been paying attention this weekend, chances are we aren’t going to see any racing on Sunday afternoon, although a mad dash to halfway could happen. If the latter occurs, it could easily become a toss-up as to who visits victory lane. Right now I’m thinking that we race on Monday. So will the practice speeds from Saturday matter? Here’s the average practice speeds for you to study. Whenever we race, Denny Hamlin will lead the field to the green with his team mate, Kyle Busch, alongside. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Finally, you can also follow me on Twitter (@FanNASCARPredic) and tweet me if you have any questions.

Projected Start & Parkers: David Stremme, Josh Wise, Scott Riggs, J.J Yeley, Mike Bliss, Reed Sorenson.

 Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Auto Club 400:

1. Tony Stewart – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

It’s just too hard to go against the guy that has been so dominant on these intermediate tracks as of late. Smoke will start in 9th once the Auto Club 400 starts and when he shows up strong in practice, you know his Chevy will be good come race time. Stewart was 12th on the average speed chart and was in the top 10 in both ten-lap average charts for the Saturday practice sessions. He finished 13th here last season, but ran a great race and was in the top 5 for almost half of the race. Before that, Stewart had four straight top 10s at this track, including a victory in the 2010 fall race. He has also finished worse than 13th just once in the last ten events here.

2. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**

I’m not going to bore you with Five Time’s record at his home track. This team has (somewhat) quietly put together a streak of three top 10s since the opening disaster at Daytona and should be pretty much a lock for a top 5 in the Auto Club 400 this season. Jimmie was 5th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and 13th on the overall average speed chart.

3. Matt Kenseth – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

I’m not really worried about Matt Kenseth’s somewhat poor quaifying effort, but that’s the main reason why I bumped him down from the 1st slot I had him at earlier in the week. I’m expecting to see the #17 near the front within the first 50 laps or so, though, so no worries. Kenseth ended up in 2nd in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average and was 20th on the average speed chart, which is normal for him. He has three wins at Fontana and his average finish of 10th here is third-best in the series. In nineteen starts at this track, Matt has amassed thirteen top 10s and has led just under 500 laps. I expect Kenseth to cross that threshold on Sunday (he only needs 3). If you play NASCAR.com Fantasy LIVE, the #17 would be the first on my list of drivers to pick.

4. Kyle Busch – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

On a positive note, “Rowdy” won’t have his pit crew from the Nationwide Series, who (as I’m typing this) basically just cost him a shot at a win. The Gibbs Toyotas all have some crazy speed but I like Kyle Busch the best of the three, although this is a risky pick for a variety of reasons. This team isn’t running great (one top 10 so far in 2012) and he hasn’t been his “normal” self at Fontana lately, with three finishes of 14th or worse in the last four races. Still, Kyle was 9th on the average speed chart and ended up in 3rd on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. Busch has amassed nine top 10s in fourteen starts here and owns one victory, which came back in 2005. A win would give this team what they need to go on a run, but I’m not seeing it this weekend. I still like Kyle Busch for a top 5, though.

5. Clint Bowyer – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

You may have read in my Preview that I thought I had Bowyer ranked a little too high at 5th going into the weekend, but I’m fine standing by that now. He scraped the wall in Happy Hour but it was so light that Clint had no idea it happened and the only damage I saw was that some paint was scraped off. He’s going to have a little bit of traffic to deal with, but the #15 Toyota is fast once again this weekend; Bowyer ranked 4th on the average speed chart and was 4th and 16th in ten-lap average during the two practice sessions on Saturday. In case you forgot, Bowyer has the fourth-best average finish at this track (10.6) and has recorded seven top 10s in eleven career starts. It will be eight of twelve once the Auto Club 400 is over.

6. Greg Biffle – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Still sticking with The Biff. He said that this car is the best (handling-wise) that Roush-Fenway has put out, and in Happy Hour it was noted that this team was working on fuel mileage. Could that be a sign that they are that satisfied with this Ford? We’ll find out soon enough. Biffle lacked in speed a little bit (18th on the average speed chart) but was 9th and 11th in the two practice sessions on Saturday in terms of ten-lap average. At Fontana, Greg has just five top 10s in seventeen starts (which explains the Medium Risk) but the good news is four of those five were also top 5s. This team took a minor step back last weekend in Bristol, but they’re stilling one of if not the hottest teams in the garage.

7. Kevin Harvick – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

I still don’t see how Harvick has turned around his qualifying skills so much since last season, but I’m not complaining. He will start this year’s Auto Club 400 in 7th and I expect him to run the high line all day and stay in the top 10. I don’t see Harvick winning for a second time in a row at Fontana, but a top 5 isn’t out of the question for this team. He was 2nd on the average speed chart and Kevin has posted four straight top 10s at this track. Expect that to be five straight by the end of 400 miles on Sunday/Monday. He had a good car at Las Vegas a few weeks ago, posting the 6th-best driver rating despite finishing 11th (which is worst finish of the season so far, by the way).

8. Denny Hamlin – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

I honestly don’t remember any other time that Denny Hamlin dominated an entire weekend like this except for those times at Pocono a while ago. He had the best car on Friday and the best car on Saturday (by a large amount, really), so a good run at Fontana is going to come down how the team is able to adjust the car as the track changes and probably some luck, which Hamlin hasn’t found much of at this race track. He won the pole here in 2007 and led 21 laps before getting caught up in an accident and finishing 37th, and started 2nd in this race last season and led 15 laps before blowing an engine and finishing 39th. Denny’s average career finish of 19.2 here is nothing to get excited about, but like I said before, this #11 Toyota will be faster than every other car at the start of the race (best ten-lap average in both Saturday practices, third in overall average speed, and the best laps in both sessions as well). If he had more than one top 5 in his previous eleven starts here, I’d have Hamlin ranked a little higher. It’s going to be all or nothing for those that pick him this weekend.

9. Mark Martin – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Well, what do you know, the #55 Toyota is fast again. Martin will roll off the grid in 3rd for this year’s Auto Club 400 (his best qualifying effort at this track since 2007) and I’m expecting at least a top 10 out of this team whenever the race is ran. Mark was 10th on the average speed chart and ranked 7th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average. Mark has three top 10s in the last four Fontana events and this team has to have the highest confidence after last week’s run in Bristol with Brian Vickers. I have the exact same thinking on Martin this weekend as I did a few weeks ago in Las Vegas, so let’s hope he has a little better luck in California…and that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. doesn’t run him into the fence.

10. Carl Edwards – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

I feel like I’m being a little generous with this ranking for Cousin Carl, but I’ll go with it. This is the same chassis that the #99 team ran in Phoenix and the New Hampshire races in 2011 (posting a win and 8th- and 13th-place finishes) but I’m just not seeing the speed I usually do out of Edwards this weekend. He ended up in 19th on the average speed chart which is well below where we normally find him, even on his bad weekends. This team isn’t running bad, they’re just running worse than we are expecting them to. Carl ended up 12th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average and I honestly think he’s going to run in the teens for most of the Auto Club 400. He does have eleven top 10s in fourteen career starts here, though, including in six of the last eight Fontana events. There are better picks out there, although I wouldn’t blame you one bit for picking Cousin Carl this weekend (his average finish here is 9th after all).

11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Junior ended up 5th on the average speed chart and was much more impressive in Happy Hour–6th on the ten-lap average chart–compared to the first practice session on Saturday. Fontana is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 21.7 in nineteen starts) but Earnhardt does have finishes of 16th and 12th in his last two starts at this 2-mile track. The #88 was decently strong a couple weeks ago in Las Vegas but Junior was driving it like a maniac (in my opinion, anyway) and finished 10th after starting 4th. This team hasn’t ended up worse than 15th all season and I wouldn’t expect that to change once this race is overwith.

12. Ryan Newman – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

I’m really only giving Newman this spot because of his recent history at these 2-mile race tracks and the fact that he starts near the front. The Rocketman ended up in 14th on the average speed chart but they changed tires at least three times while I was watching, which leads me to believe that the #39′s average speed is skewed a little bit. He was second in ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday, though, and this chassis finished 5th in Michigan last season. Newman has finished 5th in the last two Fontana events but his overall history here is shaky (18.2 average finish and just six top 10s in seventeen starts). It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Newman run this race exactly like Las Vegas a couple weeks ago: run in the teens for most of the day and then move toward the front by the end of the day (he finished 4th there, by the way).

13. Brad Keselowski – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Somewhat similar to last week, Bad Brad said that this Blue Deuce is the BEST car he’s ever had….at this track. Which isn’t saying much. Still, like I said in my Preview, expect a career-best run for Keselowski in Fontana this weekend (his best finish in three career starts has been 21st). BK wasn’t great on the average speed chart (25th) but he never is. However, he was 8th on both ten-lap average charts and has a knack for getting to the front for at least one lap, so expect him to lead at least one lap in the Auto Club 400. If this comes down to a fuel mileage race, don’t forget that Keselowski won the race in Kansas last season, which also came down to fuel. I’m expecting at least a top 15 out of BK.

14. Joey Logano – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

He’s won the Nationwide race while I was riding this article, but there are a couple things that are keeping me from putting Sliced Bread in the top 10 in this article, although I think he has a shot at that finish. First, he hasn’t sounded confident at all this weekend to me. Before qualifying, Logano said he didn’t know what line to run and thought he really screwed it up. To his surprise, he will roll off the grid in 8th. Also, this #20 didn’t make a single run of ten consecutive laps in either practice session on Saturday, which is also concerning to me. That being said, his teammates are super fast and Joey is good here when he doesn’t run into trouble (finishes of 14th, 5th, and 11th  in 2009 and 2010). Logano was 8th on the average speed chart.

15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Okay, Jamie Mac, I’ll bite. I wasn’t thinking of this team very much before I noticed them in the top 5 during Happy Hour. The #1 Chevy also ended up in 4th on the ten-lap average chart for that session as well. This chassis finished 14th at Homestead last year, and with this team coming into Fontana with two straight top 10s, maybe they have some confidence and momentum for the Auto Club 400. McMurray has an average finish here right around 17th and has finished in that place in two of the last three races at this track.

Special Note: As usual, Kasey Kahne looks good in practice (best in average speed) and starts up front (5th). They ran limited laps, though, and I don’t think the #5 is anywhere near the best car in the field. He’s going to have a good run eventually but the challenge for fantasy players is picking the week for that to happen. I conducted a recent poll, and of this writing over 50% of participants said they were scared to pick Kahne in fantasy right now because of his bad luck thus far in the 2012 season. It wouldn’t surprise me either way if Kahne finished in the top 10 or in the 30s in this year’s Auto Club 400. The same goes for his team mate, Jeff Gordon. Between the two of those drivers, they own twenty top 10s at this track. Good luck if you put either on your roster(s) this weekend.

Those To Avoid For The Auto Club 400:

Marcos Ambrose - If for some reason you didn’t listen to me in my Preview article, I hope you listen to me know and stay away from Marcos Ambrose this weekend. He’s going to roll off of the grid in 29th whenever this race starts and struggled so much in practice this team couldn’t even get 50 laps in total in the two sessions on Saturday. The Tasmanian has never finished on the lead lap in a race at Auto Club Speedway and I wouldn’t expect that to change with this event, either.

Paul Menard - You probably know by now that the beginning of the season is the time to pick Paul Menard, but I wouldn’t recommend going with that this weekend. This team has struggled all weekend and I would honestly be surprised if they finished in the top 20 unless they put Kevin Harvick’s setup in the #27 Chevy and then gambled on fuel during the race or something. Menard was 28th on the average speed chart and near the bottom of the ten-lap average charts in both sessions. Paul has generally finished near his starting position in his career at this track, and he will roll off the grid in 27th in the Auto Club 400.

Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images for NASCAR

This was another weekend with practice both before and after qualifying in Fontana. The Saturday practice speeds are the only ones I care about (all cars were working on race trim then) so the ones from the Friday session won’t be included in the average practice speeds shown below. The Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch swept the front row in qualifying, and you can find the complete starting lineup by clicking here. The last time I checked, the Sprint Cup Series probably won’t be racing on Sunday. You can keep up on the weather situation in Fontana by clicking here.

Be sure to come back later today and check out my post-Happy Hour predictions for the Auto Club 400. Also, follow me on Twitter! – @FanNASCARPredic — you can ask me for advice if you’d like!

Important Practice Notes: Clint Bowyer barely scraped the wall at the beginning of Happy Hour. No major damage, I’m not worrying about it. Kyle Busch had a problem with a sticking throttle, but I was told on Twitter it was fixed soon after (a spring came loose).

In the first practice session (held on Friday) the five fastest drivers were:
1. Clint Bowyer – 185.109 mph
2. Mark Martin – 184.322 mph
3. Kasey Kahne – 183.946 mph
4. Brad Keselowski – 183.290 mph
5. Denny Hamlin – 183.187 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

In the second practice, which was the first session on Saturday, the fastest were:
1. Denny Hamlin – 186.018 mph
2. Matt Kenseth – 185.209 mph
3. Ryan Newman – 184.928 mph
4. Tony Stewart – 184.554 mph
5. Kevin Harvick – 184.270 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

In terms of ten-lap average, the top five for second practice were:
1. Denny Hamlin – 181.527 mph
2. Ryan Newman – 180.802 mph
3. Tony Stewart – 180.720 mph
4. Clint Bowyer – 180.436 mph
5. Carl Edwards – 180.230 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for practice two.

In Happy Hour, the fast five were:
1. Denny Hamlin – 182.034 mph
2. Jeff Gordon – 181.360 mph
3. Clint Bowyer – 181.214 mph
4. Jamie McMurray – 181.132 mph
5. Kyle Busch – 181.050 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

When it came to ten-lap average, the best for Happy Hour were:
1. Denny Hamlin – 178.960 mph
2. Matt Kenseth – 177.977 mph
3. Kyle Busch – 177.943 mph
4. Jamie McMurray – 177.881 mph
5. Jimmie Johnson – 177.784 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour.

Average Practice Speeds:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets. I have found over the years that this is much more accurate as to whether or not someone has a car that is good for one lap or one that can consistently be fast. These numbers, however, can be skewed if a team puts new tires on frequently or rarely changes the tires. The average speeds below are the combined average speeds from the last two practice sessions of the weekend, which were both held on Saturday. Those marked in red will probably start and park.

Credit: Geoff Burke/Getty Images for NASCAR

Similar to last week in Las Vegas, there was practice both before and after qualifying this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. Once again, I removed the speeds from the first practice session because most teams worked just on qualifying then. Greg Biffle won the pole for Sunday’s Food City 500, and you can find the complete starting lineup by clicking here. The average practice speeds shown below are the combined speeds from the two practice sessions held on morning/afternoon. Every car should have been in race trim during those two practices, so the average speeds shouldn’t be skewed too much.

I’m skipping my Predictions post this week. It may be back next week. Please hit the social media buttons on the bottom of your favorite posts on ifantasyrace.com–not only does it spread the website but it ensures us that we’re not putting up these posts for nothing.

Important Practice Notes: Jimmie Johnson spun in first practice and Paul Menard got into the back of him, causing a little damage. Nothing major.

In the first practice session (held on Friday) the five fastest drivers were:
1. Carl Edwards – 123.921 mph
2. A.J. Allmendinger – 123.881 mph
3. Marcos Ambrose – 123.865 mph
4. Joey Logano – 123.826 mph
5. Ryan Newman – 123.730 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

In the second practice, which was the first session on Saturday, the fastest were:
1. A.J. Allmendinger – 122.638 mph
2. Kyle Busch – 122.576 mph
3. Ryan Newman – 122.443 mph
4. Greg Biffle – 122.380 mph
5. Martin Truex, Jr. – 122.341 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

In terms of ten-lap average, the top five for second practice were:
1. Kasey Kahne – 121.737 mph
2. Ryan Newman – 121.506 mph
3. Martin Truex, Jr. – 121.458 mph
4. Matt Kenseth – 121.257 mph
5. Brad Keselowski – 121.227 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for practice two.

In Happy Hour, the fast five were:
1. Ryan Newman – 121.883 mph
2. Kyle Busch – 121.836 mph
3. Brad Keselowski – 121.682 mph
4. David Reutimann – 121.682 mph
5. Kasey Kahne – 121.628 mph
Click here for the complete results from this practice.

When it came to ten-lap average, the best for Happy Hour were:
1. Ryan Newman – 120.562 mph
2. Joey Logano – 120.431 mph
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 120.347 mph
4. Regan Smith – 120.309 mph
5. Jimmie Johnson – 120.221 mph
Click here for the complete ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour.

Average Practice Speeds:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets. I have found over the years that this is much more accurate as to whether or not someone has a car that is good for one lap or one that can consistently be fast. These numbers, however, can be skewed if a team puts new tires on frequently or rarely changes the tires. The average speeds below are the combined average speeds from the last two practice sessions of the weekend, which were both held on Saturday. 

Below is the social media buttons I talked about earlier in the post. 

If you want fantasy advice, feel free to follow me and ask your questions on Twitter (@FanNASCARPredic).

My Top Five (in no particular order): Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Jeff Gordon.

Sleeper Picks: I’m sticking to my guns from earlier in the week and I think A.J. Allmendinger could grab a win. I also like Martin Truex, Jr.’s Toyota.

Avoid: Carl Edwards, Juan Montoya, Kurt Busch, and Jeff Burton.