Credit: By Chris Trotman, Getty Images for NASCAR

And The 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Champion Is…..

Three points, two drivers, one champion. Carl Edwards started off this weekend being fast in practice, and brought that over into qualifying where he won his third and final pole for this 2011 season. Martin Truex, Jr. will start beside Cousin Carl on Sunday, and for the full starting lineup all you have to do is click here. Also, my Practice Breakdown for the Ford 400 can be found by clicking here. If you have any questions or would like my opinion, you can leave a comment on here, but there’s a chance I won’t see it. E-mails go directly to my phone, fannascarpredic@gmail.com , so feel free to shoot me a message and I’ll be sure to get back with you ASAP.

Also, one final thing: I would like to take the time to thank everyone that reads these articles I put up, and I hope you continue to come around next year. I have some plans to make them more visually appealing, and I am open to suggestions as to how to make them better. Just leave a comment if you can think of something. Thanks again, good luck this week, and I hope you have a great off-season. — Jordan 

Remember to visit ifantasyrace.com during the off-season!! 

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Breaking Down The Chasers:

Carl Edwards – This would be an interesting battle if the points between Edwards and Stewart were switched around, but they’re not and I expect Cousin Carl to dominate this race for the second year in a row and bring that Sprint Cup championship back to Roush Racing. Edwards’ average finish at Homestead is 5.7, he will start from the pole on Sunday, and after running just three laps in Happy Hour, this team was done. Although that isn’t really much out of the ordinary from Carl, he has a fast car, he knows it, and all he’ll have to do on Sunday is execute. He should lead early and often in this year’s Ford 400, and I personally think he is in a league of his own this weekend. Carl is racing the same car from Texas a couple weeks ago, where he finished 2nd.

Tony Stewart – I’m going to give “Smoke” the nod for a top 5 finish on Sunday simply because of how great he has been in t he Chase, but I just don’t see him competing with Edwards, although Stewart’s ten-lap average in first practice was right on par with Cousin Carl. Mr. Runner-Up (yes, I’m already saying it) won in his first two starts at this track, but since then has an average finish of just 14.7. He still should be a great pick on Sunday, though, and if Edwards somehow screws up, Stewart will be there to take the championship. I’ll say a lock for a top 10 with a top 5 a great possibility for “Smoke” on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick – I’m really confused as to why Gil Martin is no longer going to be Kevin Harvick’s crew chief next season, but that’s off-season talk to I’ll wait until then to discuss that. As far as the race this Sunday, “Happy” will start in 21st, which is actually a little out of ordinary for Harvick here considering he has four top 10 starts in the last five races. Don’t let the starting position fool you, though: the #29 should still be a solid pick for a good run anyway. Statistically, this is Harvick’s best track on the circuit (7.9 average finish), although he has never visited victory lane. I don’t think that will change on Sunday, but a solid top 10 isn’t out of the question and maybe even a top 5, where Harvick has finished in four of the last five races here. The #29 Chevrolet was 3rd on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and 7th on the overall chart.

Brad Keselowski – I said I would jump off the Brad Keselowski band wagon if he had another bad finish last weekend, so I’m off of it, but I still think he has a shot to put together a good run this Sunday in Homestead. Bad Brad has made three career starts at this race track, and after finishing mid-twenties in the first two, he finished 13th in this race last season after started 18th. He qualified 5th on Saturday, right behind his team mate, and the Blue Deuce was 4th on the ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour. Interesting… He won’t stay in the top 5 but a solid top 15 should be expected out of Keselowski–maybe a top 10–but I’ll say a top 5 is out of reach for this team this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson – This team is completely out-of-whack in my mind, and although JJ put his #48 Chevrolet in 9th during qualifying, I think a top 5 is completely out of reach for this team, and a top 10 may end up being so as well. I’m not going to go into detail about how disappointing “Five Time” has been during the Chase this year, but Johnson was 8th out of 11 cars in first practice in terms of ten-lap average, and in Happy Hour he was 11th out of 23. Nothing for the competition to be scared of in my eyes. Johnson ended up 25th on the overall average speed chart, and although he has just one finish outside of the top 10 in the last five races here (a 15th in 2008), I think this team has packed it in for the season and Jimmie will end up in the teens on Sunday. If you want to do a fantasy hail mary this weekend (details here), my number one suggestion would be taking the #48 off of your roster.

Matt Kenseth – I haven’t heard much about Matt Kenseth all weekend, which is a bit surprising, and going off of past experience, usually means he will have a good race. He qualified his #17 Ford in 6th-place for Sunday’s event, and Matt was even 5th on the ten-lap average chart for Happy Hour. This track has been kind to him some years (from 2005-2007 Kenseth finished 3rd, 6th, and 1st), but he also has five finishes outside of the top 20 in eleven career starts at Homestead. If Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck him or if he doesn’t lose his brakes, I think Kenseth should finish top 10 on Sunday, and could even pull off a top 5. He ended up 11th on the overall average speed chart for the two practice sessions this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – For a second there I thought that Earnhardt, Jr. would take the pole from Carl Edwards in qualifying, but then I remembered who was driving that #88 Chevrolet. Still, 11th isn’t bad for Junior considering his average starting position at Homestead is 20.7. NASCAR’s golden boy ended up 2nd on the overall average speed chart this weekend and after having the best ten-lap average in first practice, Dale posted the 7th-best in Happy Hour. In eleven career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Junior’s best finish has been 13th (which came back in 2000), but I fully expect him to better that this weekend and he is definitely my number one sleeper choice for Sunday.

Kurt Busch – I wasn’t really expecting to see Kurt Busch put down a good qualifying lap considering he wasn’t in the top 25 during either practice session, but the Double Deuce will roll off the grid in 4th to start the 2011 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Kurt ended up 16th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, but I’m not going to be surprised at all if ends up in the top 5 when it’s all said and done on Sunday. Remember what I said about the elder Busch brother in my Preview? If not, here it is: “If you’re someone who notices patterns and makes fantasy decisions based on them, then Kurt Busch would be a perfect pick for you this weekend. Since 2001, the elder Busch brother has posted a top 5 finish in every other race at Homestead. For example, he finished 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2007, 5th in 2004 (he didn’t race in 2005), and won the race in 2002. Last season, Kurt ended up 18th, and finished 43rd in 2008 as well as 2006. In 2003, he ended up 36th.” Also, Kurt Busch has started three races at Homestead in the top 5, and finished in the top 5 in each of them as well.

Ryan Newman – “The Rocketman” didn’t make my top 15 ranking in my Preview this week for a reason. He’s terribly average at this track (average finish of 19.1) with a few bright spots on his resume (top 10 finishes in 2002, 2005, and 2010). He will start the Ford 400 in 14th and that’s pretty much where I think he’ll end up as well. Newman was 8th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and 8th on the overall average speed chart, but he’s been a teens driver on the intermediates this season and I don’t expect that to change with the last race.

Denny Hamlin – I like Hamlin for a top 15 this weekend, and maybe even a top 10. He was 13th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and will start Sunday’s event in 10th place. This isn’t his best track, but Denny does have three top 5 finishes in the last five Homestead races (including a win in the 2009 event), and this starting spot he has for Sunday is by far the best of his career. Previous best you may ask? 25th.

Jeff Gordon – I haven’t kept my eye on Jeff Gordon very much this weekend, which has actually turned out to be pretty foolish. He had the best ten-lap average during the Happy Hour practice session and ended up 15th on the overall chart, which is actually pretty good for him. At Homestead, Gordon has an average finish of 11.8 in twelve career starts, and although he has never won here, Jeff has finished 6th or better in three of the last four races. This team stumbled last weekend in Phoenix but I expect Gordon to bounce back with a top 10 on Sunday.

Kyle Busch – I’d avoid Kyle Busch this weekend simply because of the engine issues, but he also hasn’t showed much speed, either. “Rowdy” qualified in 19th on Saturday (a little worse than his career average of 19th) and he couldn’t manage to break the top 15 in either practice session. On the overall speed chart, Kyle ended up 14th, and on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour he was 12th. His average finish here is 26.3, and although I do expect him to improve that on Sunday, anything higher than a 9th or 10th would really surprise me out of this #18 team.

“Non-Chasers” I Have My Eyes On:

Martin Truex, Jr. – It’s hard to even consider Truex as a sleeper when the series visits Homestead. He has finished 11th or better in each of the last five races here and even led 62 laps here in last year’s season finale. He’s going to start the Ford 400 in 2nd-place and I expect him to run top 10 all day at least. Martin was in the top 13 in both practice sessions (one lap speed) but didn’t blow anyone out of the water when averages were taken into account (22nd on the overall average speed chart). The #56 Toyota ended up 6th on the ten-lap average chart in first practice, and I hate to use the word “lock” with this guy, but Truex should finish top 10 on Sunday.

Kasey Kahne – Remember a few months ago when Brad Keselowski was the hottest guy on the circuit, and it was the dumbest move you could make benching him? Fast forward to now, and Kahne is the exact same. He’s the series’ most recent winner (you should know how much I like them) and has six finishes of 6th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup events. Kasey was 3rd on the average speed chart, and although he has been hit-or-miss at Homestead (three top 6s compared to four finishes of 16th or worse), I expect him to end this 2011 campaign at Red Bull on a high note, and he very well could do what Carl Edwards did last season and win at Phoenix and then Homestead.

Greg Biffle – The Biff didn’t run ten consecutive laps in either practice session on Saturday, which isn’t extremely important, but I still like the see it. He qualified 8th, though, and does have three victories at Homestead in nine starts. His average finish in those six other races, though? 19.2. This is a Ford track, though, and Biffle was 10th on the overall average speed chart, so if this team can put together a full race I see a top 10 as a possibility for them.

A.J. Allmendinger – With an 8.7 average finish at it, Homestead-Miami Speedway is Allmendinger’s best track on the circuit, and although he didn’t blow anyone away in practice (24th on the overall average speed chart, 14th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average), I still think a top 10 is a good possibility out of him. A.J. has been one of the most consistent drivers in the series recently, with five finishes of 11th or better in the last seven events. He finished 5th here last season and will roll off the grid in 12th in the Ford 400. They just seem a tick off to me going into the race for The Dinger to post a second top 5 at this track on Sunday.

David Ragan – He’s racing for a ride next season and this is definitely a track that favors Ford, so if you want to go off of that then be my guest and pick Ragan. He had the best average speed of the weekend but ran only 44 laps, which could mean that his #6 Ford is just really good. David qualified 13th for Sunday’s race, but he always seems to do a good job in qualifying here: in three of his four starts at Homestead, Ragan has started in the top 10. He finished 10th here in 2007 but his best finish at this track since then has been 20th. I can see why people would pick him this weekend, but I’m going to pass.

Clint Bowyer – In his last race with Richard Childress Racing, I’m sure Clint will want to go out on a high note, so let’s hope Richard isn’t pissed off that he’s leaving and give Bowyer some equipment that’s going to break down mid-race because the #33 Chevrolet looks pretty sporty. Bowyer was 6th on the average speed chart, ended up in the top five in both practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average, and has finished 12th or better in four of the last five Homestead races. He has been great in this Chase and if everything goes right on Sunday, we may be seeing Bowyer in victory lane on Sunday.

Trevor Bayne – It’s really peculiar to me just how consistent Trevor Bayne is on these intermediate tracks in the Sprint Cup series. He generally qualifies right around 20th or so (which he did for this race) and usually finishes right around there as well. Bayne’s average speed would have been good enough for 12th on the overall chart if he wasn’t a go-or-go-homer. I like the kid to get a solid top 25 finish, and may creep into the teens if he stays on the lead lap during a long, green flag run.

Landon Cassill – If you want to dive extra deep this weekend (hail mary), don’t be afraid to give Landon Cassill a shot. He qualified for the Ford 400 in 22nd spot and was in the top 10 in both practice sessions (one lap speed). Landon had a ten-lap average better than Jeff Gordon in the first session and was 20th on the overall average speed chart. Heck, if I could get a top 20 out of Cassill this weekend, I’d be thrilled, and I definitely think it’s possible. Remember, he finished 12th at Michigan in June, and 17th at Kansas in October.

Quick Recap:

Should challenge for the win: Carl Edwards and Kasey Kahne.

My favorite sleepers: Landon Cassill (top 15), Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Clint Bowyer.

Those I will avoid: Joey Logano (like the plague), David Reutimann, and Jeff Burton.

Many will pick ____, but I won’t: Jimmie Johnson and David Ragan.

My Yahoo! starters: Carl Edwards, Martin Truex, Jr., Kasey Kahne, Trevor Bayne
My Yahoo! bench: Kyle Busch, A.J. Allmendinger, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard

Credit: Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Rain messed with the Sprint Cup schedule for the second time in the last month, with both practice sessions being held Saturday morning as opposed to the regularly-scheduled Friday evening.. Qualifying is scheduled to be held later this afternoon (Saturday), but you never know when rain will take that away. If so, Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart will lead the rest of the field to the green for this year’s final race. Be sure to check back this evening for my last post-qualifying Predictions post of the season. It may be a little delayed (Thanksgiving party) but it will go up sometime tonight.

Important Practice Notes: A.J. Allmendinger scraped the wall in first practice but there was no major damage (tweet from his PR guy here).

In the first practice session on Friday, the five fastest drivers were:
1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 173.193 mph
2. Carl Edwards – 172.678 mph
3. Matt Kenseth – 172.298 mph
4. Ryan Newman – 172.068 mph
5. Jimmie Johnson – 172.013 mph
Complete rankings of this practice can be found by clicking here.
In terms of ten-lap average, the following were fastest during this practice session:
1. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 168.517 mph
2. Carl Edwards – 168.115 mph
3. Tony Stewart – 168.018 mph
4. Marcos Ambrose – 166.655 mph
5. Clint Bowyer – 166.650 mph

In the “Happy Hour”, the fast five were:
1. Carl Edwards – 171.038 mph
2. David Ragan – 170.913 mph
3. Cole Whitt – 170.063 mph
4. A.J. Allmendinger – 169.705 mph
5. Landon Cassill – 169.069 mph
Complete rankings of this practice can be found by clicking here.
In terms of ten-lap average, the following were fastest during this practice session:
1. Jeff Gordon – 166.611 mph
2. Clint Bowyer – 166.587 mph
3. Kevin Harvick – 166.357 mph
4. Brad Keselowski – 166.354 mph
5. Matt Kenseth – 166.335 mph

AVERAGE PRACTICE SPEEDS:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets.

1. David Ragan at 167.210 mph over 44 laps
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at 166.973 mph over 55 laps
3. Kasey Kahne at 166.767 mph over 61 laps
4. Carl Edwards at 166.699 mph over 52 laps
5. Juan Montoya at 166.475 mph over 46 laps
6. Clint Bowyer at 166.265 mph over 66 laps
7. Kevin Harvick at 166.201 mph over 70 laps
8. Ryan Newman at 166.146 mph over 60 laps
9. Tony Stewart at 165.984 mph over 82 laps
10. Greg Biffle at 165.954 mph over 72 laps
11. Matt Kenseth at 165.912 mph over 64 laps
12. Kurt Busch at 165.793 mph over 63 laps
13. Marcos Ambrose at 165.770 mph over 61 laps
14. Kyle Busch at 165.737 mph over 72 laps
15. Jeff Gordon at 165.721 mph over 65 laps
16. Jamie McMurray at 165.601 mph over 55 laps
17. David Reutimann at 165.558 mph over 61 laps
18. Denny Hamlin at 165.529 mph over 68 laps
19. Mark Martin at 165.499 mph over 80 laps
20. Landon Cassill at 165.494 mph over 66 laps
21. Brad Keselowski at 165.463 mph over 73 laps
22. Martin Truex, Jr. at 165.370 mph over 66 laps
23. Brian Vickers at 165.362 mph over 77 laps
24. A.J. Allmendinger at 165.138 mph over 71 laps
25. Jimmie Johnson at 165.079 mph over 75 laps
26. Regan Smith at 164.945 mph over 46 laps
27. Paul Menard at 164.940 mph over 88 laps
28. Jeff Burton at 164.888 mph over 81 laps
29. Casey Mears at 164.789 mph over 49 laps
30. Joey Logano at 164.663 mph over 69 laps
31. Bobby Labonte at 164.534 mph over 59 laps
32. Travis Kvapil at 163.494 mph over 53 laps
33. David Gilliland at 163.008 mph over 32 laps
34. T.J. Bell at 162.074 mph over 44 laps
35. Geoffrey Bodine at 159.334 mph over 50 laps

Go-or-Go-Homer’s Average Speeds:

1. Michael McDowell at 168.651 mph over 9 laps
2. Cole Whitt at 168.606 mph over 18 laps
3. J.J. Yeley at 167.668 mph over 21 laps
4. David Stremme at 167.213 mph over 14 laps
5. Joe Nemechek at 167.126 mph over 16 laps
6. Dave Blaney at 166.901 mph over 17 laps
7. Scott Speed at 166.339 mph over 12 laps
8. Mike Bliss at 166.217 mph over 23 laps
9. Mike Skinner at 166.082 mph over 9 laps
10. Reed Sorenson at 165.966 mph over 14 laps
11. Trevor Bayne at 165.847 mph over 34 laps
12. Dennis Setzer at 164.642 mph over 20 laps
13. Grant Enfinger at 161.691 mph over 29 laps

Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Where There’s Smoke,
There’s Fire

Judging by Saturday’s qualifying session, the Kobalt Tools 500 definitely has the potential to be a wreck-fest, maybe even worse than the one we had at this track in February. Car after car was sliding around this newly configured Phoenix International Raceway, but it was Matt Kenseth who got the pole for Sunday’s event. A.J. Allmendinger will start the race from the outside pole, and the entire lineup can be viewed by clicking here. As you probably know by now, not many people (including the drivers themselves) know what to expect on Sunday. I think practice will be majorly important, and in case you missed my Practice Breakdown, or would simply like to view it again, you can by clicking here. Also, in my Preview from Wednesday morning (located here if you would like to read it), I made a case for Indianpolis comparing to this new track, while Ryan thinks it’s going to be more like Richmond (his reasoning here). If you have any questions or would like my opinion, you can leave a comment on here, but there’s a chance I won’t see it. E-mails go directly to my phone, fannascarpredic@gmail.com , so feel free to shoot me a message and I’ll be sure to get back with you.

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Breaking Down The Chasers:

Carl Edwards – I’m going to keep bringing up this stat for the last two races unless it is broken: Carl Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since Michigan in August, and that won’t change this weekend. He starts 9th, right behind his buddy, and should stay in the top 10 for most of the race. As usual, Carl didn’t practice a whole bunch in Happy Hour, but he still ran a total of 98 laps on Friday and ended up 3rd on the average speed chart. He didn’t run ten consecutive laps in Happy Hour, but I’m not too worried about that because it is Carl Edwards. He hasn’t been great on the flat tracks this season (just two top 10s in the six races), but this team and driver have been phenomenal in the Chase this year, and Cousin Carl will be trying his hardest to stay right on Smoke’s bumper for the entire 500 kilometers on Sunday.

Tony Stewart – What do you know, Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart will start Sunday’s race in 9th and 8th, respectively, and I expect the entire race for them to be nose-to-tail…just like last week in Texas. “Smoke” is my pick to win the Kobalt Tools 500, though. He had the best car in practice on Friday and looked like he could pass just about anyone, which is surprising because this track only has one lane now. His car looked that good. He loves when the tracks are slippery, and this new Phoenix should be on Sunday. Stewart ended up 10th on the overall average speed chart (usually doesn’t show much in practice), and had the third-best ten-lap average. This race has the potential to be dominated by the #14 crew, just like last week’s. Remember who has the best average finish at Indianapolis? Where there’s smoke, there’s fire….

Kevin Harvick – Harvick will start Sunday’s race in 27th, so he’s going to have some cars to pass, but really that has been his ‘thing’ for this entire season. However, I’m not seeing a whole bunch of upside in taking Harvick on Sunday. In other words, there are better picks. Kevin had the 10th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, though, and ranked 4th on the overall speed chart for the practices on Friday. If only he qualified better… Harvick posted top 5s in the first two flat track races this season but in the four events after, his best finish has been 11th (at Indianapolis). I like “Happy” for an early teens finish with a shot at a top 10.

Matt Kenseth – You know me and what I say by now: when Matt Kenseth starts on the pole, he has a great car and will probably challenge for the win. No difference this week. The #17 Ford looked pretty sporty in practice, ending up 2nd on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and 6th on the overall average speed chart, which doesn’t happen often for Kenseth. He has been consistently average on the flat tracks this season (six races, three top 10s, no finish worse than 20th), but I’m really liking his chances this weekend. Heck, you never know: if something happens to Stewart and Edwards, Kenseth could be right in the thick of the championship battle next week in Homestead.

Brad Keselowski - I still have faith in Brad Keselowski, and I’m not ready to jump off the bandwagon. I understand if other people do, but I still think this team is capable of getting a couple more solid finishes this season. Keselowski was 11th on the overall average speed chart but didn’t manage to make either of the ten-lap average charts in the two practice sessions on Friday. His one-lap speeds from those practices make it look like BK will be a 20th-place car or so on Sunday, but this team is real good at working on the car during the race and setting it up for the end. Keselowski has top 10s in the last three flat track races and led 17 laps at Indianapolis in July.

Jimmie Johnson – He has ten-straight top 5 finishes at Pheonix, but once the checkered flag waves on Sunday, I think that streak will come to an end for Jimmie Johnson. Don’t get me wrong, I still think he will probably end up top 10 (it is the five-time champ) but I just think that there are other, better cars that will fill the first five slots on Sunday. In the six flat track races in 2011, Johnson has recorded four top 5s along with a 19th (Indianapolis) and an 18th (New Hampshire). He had the 13th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and will start 16th. I’m expecting a finish around 8th from the #48 Chevrolet on Sunday.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – He looked like his normal self as of late (junk) during the practice sessions on Friday and Junior will start he Kobalt Tools 500 in 22nd place. I just see no reason to put him on any roster this week. His worst finish in the six flat track races this season has been 17th–and don’t get me wrong, I think Earnhardt will put up a solid teens finish, and maybe a top 10–but you don’t win fantasy championships by picking those guys. He didn’t run ten consecutive laps in either practice session and was 30th (out of 35) on the average speed chart. Wait until Daytona next season to confidently pick NASCAR’s golden boy.

Jeff Gordon – Jeff will start a row behind his Hendrick team-mate, but unfortunately for him it is Dale Earnhardt, Jr., meaning the #24 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 23rd. Gordon is a very solid flat track racer, though, and if he can’t pass cars to get to the front, him and Alan Gustafson should be able to implement some sort of strategy. Jeff didn’t have blow-you-out-of-the-water speed in practice, but he’s good at Indianapolis and hasn’t finished worse than 11th on the six flat track races this season. He won’t win, but I don’t see Gordon finishing worse than 12th on Sunday.

Kurt Busch – I didn’t realize (until now, obviously) that this team was in such a slump: Kurt hasn’t posted a top 10 finish since his win in Dover on October 2nd! Wow. I don’t expect that to change come Sunday, though. The elder Busch brother will start the Kobalt Tools 500 in 17th, and I think he’ll be around the teens for most of the race, occasionally poking his head in the top 10. He had the 16th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and was 18th on the overall average speed chart for the two sessions combined. If him and crew chief Steve Addington implement some strategy towards the end of the race, he might be able to luck himself into a top 10, but I just don’t see the Double Deuce power it’s way up there at all.

Denny Hamlin – He spun his Toyota out in qualifying, so he’s going to start pretty deep (33rd), but even if he looked great there, I would have my doubts about Hamlin. He didn’t impress me at all in practice and his average finish on the flat tracks this season is 17.3. Kind of like his season is going: not being very good in the places where he should be. Denny was 17th out of 22 drivers in terms of ten-lap average in Happy Hour.

Kyle Busch – If anyone on my roster is going to have to start in the back of the field, I would want it to be Kyle Busch. This week, though? I’m not so sure. He blew his engine before making a single lap in the first practice on Friday, and although Rowdy was able to practice for the entire Happy Hour session, laying down the 5th-fastest lap, I don’t think he has the speed to get up to the front. Phoenix is probably going to be a one-lane race track on Sunday, and that’s not good for Kyle. I probably won’t be picking him, but it’s understandable why some fantasy racers would.

Ryan Newman – Newman was 12th on the overall average speed chart, but other than that I see no real reason why he would have a great run on Sunday. He qualified 30th, which will be his worst starting spot on a flat track since 2009, which was surprisingly at the “old Phoenix”. He finished 16th in that race, and I honestly see him finishing right around there on Sunday as well. They had a vibration during practice, and although Ryan said it was “still drive-able,” that’s just another reason for me to leave “The Rocketman” on the bench this weekend.

“Non-Chasers” I Have My Eyes On:

A.J. Allmendinger – Many people I noticed were liking A.J. Allmendinger this weekend, and I’ll be honest: I simply missed it. I’m regretting that now, as I left A.J. off my Yahoo! roster this weekend. Oh, well, life goes on. He’s no sure bet, and it looks like his Ford has the potential to run top 10, but I’m liking The Dinger for a mid-teens finish at best on Sunday. A.J. finished 9th here in February–before the repavement and re-configuration–but hasn’t been that great on the flat tracks for the rest of 2011 (12th at New Hampshire in July has been his best effort). Momentum is nice, though, and Allmendinger has it (four top 11s in the last six Sprint Cup races). Oh yeah, he starts up front (2nd–outside pole), which is good this weekend.

Marcos Ambrose – I’m liking these Petty Fords here lately. If you haven’t read my fantasy stuff before, or don’t pay a whole bunch of attention, I love Marcos Ambrose on short and flat tracks due to his ability to conserve his brakes. He’s starting in 3rd on Sunday, which is good, and has some momentum on his side (four top 11s in the last six Sprint Cup races), including his awesome run at Texas last week (even though he finished 11th). Marcos finished 9th at New Hampshire in July but hasn’t been great–to say the least–on the flat tracks this season. Still, that’s what you get when you put a sleeper on your roster: high risk, high reward. I’ll say Ambrose should be top 15 with a shot at the top 10 once it’s all over on Sunday.

Mark Martin – You can read what I think about this old man in my Preview by clicking here. He starts 4th, was 16th on the overall speed chart, and 14th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. I expect the #5 Chevrolet to end up top 15 on Sunday, maybe a little better.

Martin Truex, Jr. – Remember my sleeper of the week from my preview? I’m still liking my usually-hated Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend, and he even made it onto my Yahoo! roster. Martin was 2nd on the overall average speed chart on Friday and had the 8th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Add in the fact that he has momentum (three straight top 10s) and he has just one finish outside of the top 16 in six flat track races in 2011. He’ll roll off the grid in 5th on Sunday, and I honestly think Truex will challenge for another top 10 on Sunday.

Jamie McMurray – He qualified pretty well (6th) and looked pretty good in practice (5th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour), but as you know by now with Jamie Mac, even when it looks like a sure bet for a solid race, nothing is guaranteed. He finished 4th at Indianapolis but doesn’t have a top 20 in any of the other flat track races this season. I’ll say this: it wouldn’t surprise me to see McMurray have a good run on Sunday, but he’s simply too risky for me to even consider for my fantasy rosters.

Kasey Kahne – Can you really go against this guy right now? He’s the hottest driver on the circuit behind Tony Stewart, and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down soon. Kahne ran 140 laps of practice on Friday and ended up 8th on the overall average speed chart, and had the best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Both Red Bull cars look good this weekend in my opinion. Kasey is usually a teens driver on the flat tracks, but I think he has a solid shot at a top 10 on Sunday. I don’t think he’ll visit victory lane, though…not this week, anyway.

Paul Menard – Don’t let the fact that Paul Menard was 5th on the overall average speed chart on Friday fool you: he’s generally up on that chart, even if he has an absolutely terrible car. Paul did have the 11th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, though, and will start Sunday’s event in 11th place. He’s been alright on the flat tracks this season (only one finish out of the top 20 in six races), but I’m not expecting much more than a mid-teens finish out of Menard on Sunday.

Quick Recap:

Should challenge for the win: Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth.

My favorite sleepers: Martin Truex, Jr. and Jamie McMurray.

Those I will avoid: Bare with me, the list is long… Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Juan Montoya, Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Many will pick ____, but I won’t: Jeff Gordon and Ryan Newman.

My Yahoo! starters: Tony Stewart, Kasey Kahne, Martin Truex, Jr., Paul Menard
My Yahoo! bench: Carl Edwards, Brian Vickers, Ryan Newman, Regan Smith

Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images

With Phoenix International Raceway getting a complete re-pavement and re-configuration, practice speeds (and probably starting position) will be as important as ever this weekend. If you read my Preview from earlier this week (click here if you didn’t), you probably know that I personally think that this ‘new’ Phoenix will race more like Indianapolis, while Ryan thinks it’s going to race more like Richmond (click here for his reasoning). Either way, I’m going to be leaning on practice speeds pretty heavily to make my picks this weekend, and as you probably read in Ryan’s Scouting Report, there isn’t much of a second groove yet, so starting position could be very important. Obviously, after the Nationwide race, we should know more about whether passing will be easy or not on Sunday, though. There were two practice sessions today (Friday) and qualifying will start tomorrow afternoon (1:30 PM eastern). Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 500 should start around 3:30 PM eastern.

Important Practice Notes: Kyle Busch blew his engine as soon as he fired the #18 Interstate Batteries Toyota, so he had very limited track time in first practice (23 laps). In Happy Hour, Ryan Newman had a vibration and his team spent much of the session trying to fix it. Newman called it a race-able vibration, whatever that means. Also in the second session, Jamie McMurray had a fuel issue. Last I heard was that they wouldn’t have to change the engine, but I’m not 100% sure on that. Sorry I can’t give you more information on that, practice was on ESPN2, not SPEED, so I didn’t get much information because it wasn’t involving Carl Edwards or Tony Stewart.

In the first practice session on Friday, the five fastest drivers were:
1. Jeff Burton – 140.067 mph
2. Matt Kenseth – 139.925 mph
3. David Ragan – 139.616 mph
4. Paul Menard – 139.605 mph
5. Ryan Newman – 139.540 mph
Complete rankings of this practice can be found by clicking here.
In terms of ten-lap average, the following were fastest during this practice session:
1. Tony Stewart – 135.611 mph
2. Carl Edwards – 135.436 mph
3. Jeff Gordon – 134.478 mph
4. Jimmie Johnson – 134.271 mph
5. Juan Montoya – 134.142 mph

In the “Happy Hour”, the fast five were:
1. Paul Menard – 141.121 mph
2. Carl Edwards – 140.724 mph
3. Regan Smith – 140.362 mph
4. Brian Vickers – 139.974 mph
5. Kyle Busch – 139.855 mph
Complete rankings of this practice can be found by clicking here.
In terms of ten-lap average, the following were fastest during this practice session:
1. Kasey Kahne – 136.644 mph
2. Matt Kenseth – 136.429 mph
3. Tony Stewart – 136.325 mph
4. Greg Biffle – 136.166 mph
5. Jamie McMurray –  136.165 mph

AVERAGE PRACTICE SPEEDS:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets.

1. Brian Vickers at 135.657 mph over 95 laps
2. Martin Truex, Jr. at 135.648 mph over 95 laps
3. Carl Edwards at 135.618 mph over 98 laps
4. Kevin Harvick at 135.595 mph over 98 laps
5. Paul Menard at 135.450 mph over 89 laps
6. Matt Kenseth at 135.411 mph over 117 laps
7. Regan Smith at 135.361 mph over 91 laps
8. Kasey Kahne at 135.332 mph over 140 laps
9. Jeff Burton at 135.330 mph over 113 laps
10. Tony Stewart at 135.238 mph over 145 laps
11. Brad Keselowski at 135.226 mph over 107 laps
12. Ryan Newman at 135.190 mph over 100 laps
13. David Ragan at 135.171 mph over 112 laps
14. A.J. Allmendinger at 135.131 mph over 142 laps
15. Greg Biffle at 135.123 mph over 134 laps
16. Mark Martin at 135.029 mph over 103 laps
17. Jamie McMurray at 135.020 mph over 115 laps
18. Kurt Busch at 135.012 mph over 133 laps
19. Denny Hamlin at 134.988 mph over 108 laps
20. Joey Logano at 134.979 mph over 132 laps
21. Kyle Busch at 134.942 mph over 108 laps
22. Marcos Ambrose at 134.920 mph over 89 laps
23. Clint Bowyer at 134.895 mph over 69 laps
24. Jeff Gordon at 134.887 mph over 105 laps
25. Jimmie Johnson at 134.691 mph over 119 laps
26. David Gilliland at 134.677 mph over 46 laps
27. Juan Montoya at 134.484 mph over 91 laps
28. David Reutimann at 134.418 mph over 113 laps
29. Casey Mears at 134.360 mph over 77 laps
30. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at 134.217 mph over 80 laps
31. Landon Cassill at 134.076 mph over 65 laps
32. Bobby Labonte at 133.549 mph over 107 laps
33. Mike Bliss at 132.995 mph over 80 laps
34. Geoff Bodine at 132.072 mph over 77 laps
35. J.J. Yeley at 131.878 mph over 70 laps

Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Tony Stewart – Can anyone stop Tony Stewart? I’m guessing not this week. Tony Stewart has spent 4 days testing at Phoenix and the 14 team sounds confident. The determination level of this team can’t be matched and their willing their way to the championship. I know if I were Carl Edwards I would be scared. Stewart finished 7th and 9th at Richmond this year and he had one of the better cars at Phoenix in February. *** August Tire Test Participant

How to approach the Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500 from a fantasy NASCAR perspective? <– MUST READ

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a quick learner and he’ll be a contender for the win in the Kobalt Tools 500. Hopefully you read my post about how I theorize Phoenix will race like Richmond. It will help you understand my fantasy perspective as we venture into the unknown. At Richmond Kevin Harvick won and led more than half the race (202 laps).

Here’s what Kevin Harvick said about the new PHOENIX TRACK CONFIGURATION

Jeff Gordon – Gordon won at the old Phoenix track configuration earlier this year but in NASCAR sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. I expect Jeff Gordon to be strong once again when the green flag waves in the Kobalt Tools 500. Gordon has been perhaps the best driver in the series on this track type in 2011 and at Richmond he had the field covered in the regular season finale. His downfall was pit road and poor restarts. At Richmond he finished 3rd and had the 5th best driver rating 108.4.

Here’s what Jeff Gordon said about the new PHOENIX TRACK CONFIGURATION

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion and earlier this year he won the pole at the old Phoenix track configuration. What happened on the old configuration is still viable fantasy information. It may not be as important as studying Richmond but it still has its place. At Richmond in September Carl Edwards was very impressive but the 99 team utilized the wrong pit strategy. He finished second but if Paul Menard didn’t spin bringing out the last caution then he would’ve finished pretty poorly. Edwards had the second best average running position in that race (4th). *** August Tire Test Participant

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has tested at the newly reconfigured Phoenix multiple times. At Richmond Kyle Busch is a three-time winner and he’s only finished lower than 16th twice in fourteen races. He won in April and in the regular season finale he finished 6th despite having damage and going a lap down because of a caution during the pit cycle. The last time NASCAR visited a new track Busch emerged the victor. *** August Tire Test Participant

Here’s what Kyle Busch said about the new PHOENIX TRACK CONFIGURATION

Jimmie Johnson – The 48 team is out of the title hunt but look for a smart team to win this week. Are any teams smarter than the 48 crew? Johnson was the class of the field on the old track configuration and I think he’ll really miss it. Johnson finished 31st at Richmond this fall due to Kurt Busch wrecking him but he looked to have a top ten car. In the four preceding races he finished in the top eleven every race. *** August Tire Test Participant

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has always excelled on tracks that are shorter in the series. I expect him also to excel in the Kobalt Tools 500. Last year he had the field covered but of course it’s a different track now. I think things will start to go Hamlin’s way as the Chase winds down. The 11 team has been working on 2012 stuff and I think they’ll start showing their hand.

Kurt Busch – Busch got off to a fast start in the Chase but since he won at Dover he’s either finished in the teens or thirties. Their due to bounce back and I think this will be the week. He participated in the August tire test in addition to the October open test. It should be assumed that they have superior notes and when you combine that with how he performed at Richmond this fall (5th) I think good things can happen. **** August Tire Test Participant

Check Out:

• Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Front Runner” Picks
• Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500: Mid Pack Projections
• Drivers who you don’t want to pick in the Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500

Credit: Getty Images for NASCAR

(READ my post about how you should approach Phoenix from a fantasy NASCAR perspective)

Clint Bowyer – Richmond ranks right up there among Bowyer’s best tracks so naturally I think the new Phoenix track configuration will benefit him. This fall at Richmond Bowyer had a good car but he was involved in an incident with Reutimann and he also went a lap down due to a caution during his pit sequence. Before that race Bowyer finished sixth in three out of the last four Richmond races. Bowyer is hungry for wins and I think he’ll be pretty good in the Kobalt Tools 500.

Ryan Newman -Newman has finished in the top five the last three Phoenix races so you can uncheck the desert heat / slick track variable right off the bat. The shorter tracks like Richmond, New Hampshire, and the old Phoenix configuration were / are prime spots for Newman to be on your fantasy team. Tony Stewart has done extensive testing at Phoenix (4 days) so I think the 39 team will have a pretty good note book to work with this week.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has surprised a lot of people this year and there’s really no reason to be to low on him this week. He has three top fifteens at Richmond and he has the intangible to make the most out of bad days. It is mentionable though that he’s the only driver who I know of who damaged their car during testing at the new layout.

Marcos Ambrose -Ambrose has been successful at Richmond (15.2 avg finish) and thus I think he’ll fare well at the reconfigured Phoenix. Ambrose also ran good at the old Phoenix configuration (15.3 avg finish) so I can say with confidence he’ll be a front runner this week. He’s not at the front of the pack for “front runners” but I like him because he’s been running good across the board lately. In the last six races he’s finished 11th or better four times.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has been a quality sleeper pick at the old Phoenix track configuration, Richmond and New Hampshire. I think he’s a driver who could really surprise people and since it’s essentially a new track he’ll be on equal footing with everyone for perhaps the first time in his career.

Greg Biffle – Biffle has been a mid teens driver at Richmond since the late 2000′s. His last top ten at what I believe is Phoenix’s most similar track came in 2006. This year at Richmond Biffle finished 13th but he had an average running position of 8th. Biffle excels on slick tracks and the hotter the better. On the old Phoenix layout Biffle was consistently a top ten driver.

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Matt Kenseth – The shorter tracks on the circuit aren’t always the most favorable for Kenseth but I wouldn’t count him out. Kenseth has been good in every Chase race to date and I think he’ll continue this trend. Richmond hasn’t been a strong point but I personally wouldn’t be to troubled to have Kenseth on my team this week.

David Ragan – Richmond has been one of David Ragan’s better tracks as of late. In both races this year he finished 4th. He also ran well at New Hampshire this year (14th and 7th) and that track is similar to Richmond. Roush Fenway Racing is a top tier team so I’m certainly not expecting them to miss the setup.

Check Out:

• Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Top Tier Elite” Picks
• Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500: Mid Pack Projections
• Drivers who you don’t want to pick in the Phoenix Kobalt Tools 500

Credit: Streeter Lecka/Getty Images for NASCAR

This Is The Week To Leave Edwards “In The Garage”

There’s not much information to go off of this weekend, so I’m going to look at past history as a major indicator for who is going to be good in Sunday’s Tums Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway. As you probably read in Ryan’s Scouting Report, recent and overall history here is a key factor for predicting who will do good, followed by practice speeds. There was only one practice session this weekend, though, so those teams that were on the edge (I’m looking at you Carl Edwards) probably will start the race Sunday at a bit disadvantage. You can view my Practice Breakdown–which includes average speed and ten-lap averages–for this weekend by clicking here. I’m going to wait to finalize my rosters until I read the crew chief notes, which come out on Sunday morning. For my final top ten as well as my rosters, be sure to check my Twitter feed tomorrow. Finally, if you have any questions or would like my opinion, you can leave a comment on here, but there’s a chance I won’t see it. E-mails go directly to me phone, fannascarpredic@gmail.com , so feel free to shoot me a message and I’ll be sure to get back with you.

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Breaking Down The Chasers:

Carl Edwards – The last thing Carl Edwards needed this weekend was all that rain. By now, you should all know that he has struggled at Martinsville (to say the least–this is his worst track on the circuit excluding restrictor plate tracks) and I expect more of the same this weekend. He starts on the pole and will have a nice advantage with the first pit stall, but I don’t see Cousin Carl padding his points lead by any means this weekend. His #99 Ford was borderline terrible in practice, ending up with the 29th-fastest lap and 33rd on the average speed chart, essentially dead last in my mind because the people lower than him were the likes of Scott Speed and Landon Cassill. I think this team would consider a top 15 a win on Sunday, and the only way Edwards will end up in the front when the checkered flag waves is with some major luck. I’m avoiding Carl like the plague this weekend.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is pretty much in the same boat as Edwards in my mind (I think they may even have the same setup). As with Carl, Matt’s struggled at Martinsville to say the least, with just two top 5s in twenty-three career starts. Kenseth was 24th on the practice chart, 30th on the average speed chart, and 29th (out of 34) on the ten-lap average chart on Saturday. Remember the whole plague thing I said with Edwards? Yeah, do the same with the #17. Expect a deep teens finish from both of them in the Tums Fast Relief 500. Sorry, Roush fans.

Brad Keselowski - Talk about a time to capitalize… “Bad Brad” is sitting third in the points and Martinsville is a track where he has found moderate success at in the past. However, BK didn’t impress me much at all during practice on Friday, although his teammate, Kurt Busch, wasn’t terrible (although he ran a limited number of laps, which is concerning). Keselowski has a worst finish of 19th in three career starts at “The Paperclip,” and while I don’t see him finishing worse than that on Sunday, I’m not predicting a top 10 by any means. This team does have a knack of being in the right place at the right time, though, and they’re not too bad at continuously improving the Blue Deuce throughout the race.

Tony Stewart – “Smoke” has had a bunch of success (including two victories) at this race track over his twenty-five career starts, but recently it’s quite the opposite for the two-time Sprint Cup champion. In the last three races here, Stewart hasn’t finished better than 24th, and what’s even worse is that in two of those races, he started in the top 6. He’ll roll off the grid in 4th on Sunday afternoon, but I just don’t see Tony ending up anywhere near that when it’s all said and done. He was 19th on the average speed chart, but right down there with Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards in terms of ten-lap average (26th). Due to his recent history at this track and his struggles in practice, you won’t find Mr. Stewart on any of my rosters this weekend.

Kevin Harvick – There’s been a bunch of negativity in this post thus far, hasn’t there? Well, it’s not going to change. Any time I hear “engine difficulties” in practice it worries me, and although it was just an ignition box issue for the #29 Chevrolet, that’s still going to be in the back of my mind when I make my picks for the Tums Fast Relief 500. Add in the fact that Harvick and Greg Biffle could get into it again on Sunday and I view “Happy” as just too risky of a pick for me. He was 15th on the ten-lap average chart during practice and 9th on the overall average speed chart, so his Chevrolet could be decently fast, but the fact that Harvick has just two top 5s at this track in twenty starts isn’t very re-assuring. However, those both came in the last two races, and Kevin has seven top 12s in his last eight starts here. I don’t see him winning on Sunday, but as long as him and The Biff don’t get into it, Harvick should make it eight for nine at Martinsville for top 12s.

Kyle Busch – “Rowdy” wasn’t very impressive in practice if you look at at the average speed chart (he ended up 31st out of 43), but he’s one of the best short track racers in the series and I like that he had the sixth-best ten-lap average in practice. As I said in my preview, Kyle is hit-or-miss at Martinsville, with six top 5s in thirteen career starts but also five finishes outside of the top 20. I still expect Busch to challenge for the win on Sunday, though, and be on the “hit” side. In the race here in April, Busch led a race-high 151 laps and finished 3rd, his second-straight top 5 finish at “The Paperclip.”

Jimmie Johnson – “Five Time” would be my outright favorite to win on Sunday, but this team has been “off” on weekends where I think that this season, so that always sticks in the back of my mind. Johnson had the best ten-lap average in practice and wound up 16th on the average speed chart, which is actually pretty good for him. He has just one finish outside of the top 10 at Martinsville since 2002 (and that was an 11th), so I’m gonna go ahead and say Johnson is a lock for a top 10. If they want any outside chance at the championship, the #48 crew is going to need a flawless race and a victory on Sunday, although I personally think their championship hopes are gone.

Kurt Busch – As I said before, the elder Busch brother ended up a solid 7th on the average speed chart, but he ran just 68 laps in practice, and that’s a bit concerning. In my mind, they were either searching with the “Double Deuce” or his Dodge is just that good. I’m leaning toward the former, though. Kurt was 11th on the ten-lap average chart and he hasn’t finished inside the top 10 at “The Paperclip” since 2005. I don’t see that changing this weekend, although a top 15 is a possibility for Busch.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Junior Nation this could be your week. Earnhardt was one of just four drivers to run at least 100 laps in practice, and he didn’t look too bad at all, coming in at 4th on the ten-lap average chart and 2nd on the average speed chart. While he has never won at Martinsville, this is (statistically) Junior’s third-best track on the circuit, and since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, he has notched five top 10s in seven starts at “The Paperclip.” I’m not guaranteeing a victory, but I’ll say this: unless he runs into trouble during the race, expect Junior to be near the front when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Jeff Gordon – I usually don’t put someone as a lock for a top 5 on a weekend, but it’s really hard for me not to do that with Jeff Gordon in Martinsville. In the last thirteen races here, Gordon has twelve top 5s, and the only reason he didn’t finish there in that lone race (which was this race last season) was because he was wrecked. This is about as safe of pick as they come. The #24 Chevrolet was third-best in ten-lap runs during Happy Hour, and I could easily see it coming down to the three Hendrick teammates at the end on Sunday: Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Jeff Gordon.

Denny Hamlin – There’s no doubt that Denny will lead laps on Sunday, but will this team be able to put together a full race? He’s been good on the tracks that he should be in 2011, but sometimes Hamlin doesn’t get the finish to show for it (case in point: the last race at Martinsville, where Denny ended up an uncharacteristic 12th despite leading 89 laps). Ending up 18th on the average speed chart didn’t put any more confidence (in my mind) behind Hamlin, and he was 23rd on the overall average speed chart after running 97 laps. It’s hard to overlook his history at this track (6.6 average finish in twelve starts, four wins) but I just think that there are better options than the #11 Toyota this weekend. A top 10 wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m thinking more of a top 15 run for last year’s runner-up in the Tums Fast Relief 500.

Ryan Newman – Like his owner, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman has been very impressive recently at Martinsville Speedway. In the last two races here, “The Rocketman” has started 4th and 2nd, but has finished those races 30th and 20th, respectively. However, before those races, Newman rattled off three-straight top 10s here, and he has finished outside of the top 20 just four times in nineteen career starts. Ryan was 11th on the overall average speed chart and 17th on the ten-lap average for Friday’s practice. I see nothing to persuade me that Newman won’t finish around his career average at this track on Sunday (14.6).

“Non-Chasers” I Have My Eyes On:

Clint Bowyer – I was expecting so much more out of Clint this weekend… He has never been a very “great” driver at Martinsville, though, so I guess I was just caught up in the momentum he might have coming off of his win at Talladega. In practice, the #33 Chevrolet ended up 23rd on the ten-lap average chart, but Clint was 4th on the overall average speed chart. However, he ran just 62 laps, which is a bit concerning to me. Maybe his car is just that good, though? He did lay down the second-fastest lap. Bowyer has one top 5 finish here (in 2009), but when he has a pretty good car he usually finishes around 9th or 10th. I’d pencil him in for around there, but if the race ends on a long, green flag run, a teens finish is more likely to happen for Bowyer.

A.J. Allmendinger – After finished 38th and 35th in his first two attempts at this track, it started to look like The Dinger finally figured “The Paperclip” out, with finishes of 15th and 9th following. He came back to earth after, though, and finished 34th and 38th in the next races, but then ended up 12th in this race last season and finished 14th here in April. Moral of that long story? A.J. is hit or miss when it comes to Martinsville. He ended up 5th on the average speed chart, though, and 9th on the ten-lap average for practice on Saturday.

Marcos Ambrose – If you’re looking for some sleepers, load up on the Richard Petty Fords. Like his teammate, Allmendinger, Marcos Ambrose is hit-or-miss when it comes to Martinsville (two top 15s compared to three finishes of 27th or worse in five starts), but the #9 Ford looked pretty sporty in practice, ending up 12th on the average speed chart and 5th in ten-lap average. Marcos only ran 60 laps, though, so that concerns me a bit. In case you didn’t see Dustin Long’s tweet about what Jamie McMurray said about Ambrose in practice, you can view that by clicking here.

Juan Montoya – Remember what I said in my Preview? “Don’t be afraid to give Juan a shot if the #42 Chevrolet looks good in practice on Friday.” Well, there wasn’t any practice on Friday, but Montoya didn’t look too bad during the session on Saturday: in terms of overall average speed, JPM was 8th on the board, and he ended up 10th on the ten-lap average chart. In nine starts at “The Paperclip,” Montoya has just one finish outside of the top 20 and a total of three top 10s (including two top 5s in the last four races). As far as him starting 20th, Montoya is used to it: he has just two starts inside the top 20 in his nine career races here.

Jamie McMurray – Just like the Petty Fords, don’t be afraid to take a shot with the Ganassi Chevrolets this weekend in Martinsville. I had McMurray ranked 11th in my Preview, which I’m sure many people disagreed with, but I’m standing firmly behind it now as well. Jamie was 2nd on the ten-lap average chart and was the best on the overall average speed chart after running 85 laps in practice. He will roll off the grid in 27th on Sunday, but in the two races here in 2009, McMurray started 28th and 23rd and finished 10th and 6th, respectively. He has four finishes of 11th or better in the last five Martinsville races and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Jamie McMurray finish around there on Sunday.

Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images for NASCAR

Rain almost completely washed away this weekend’s schedule at Martinsville Speedway, but the Sprint Cup Series was able to get one practice session in on Saturday afternoon. Qualifying was cancelled and the starting lineup was set by points, meaning Carl Edwards will lead the field to the green on Sunday afternoon for the Tums Fast Relief 500. The entire lineup can be found by clicking here. Also, in case you missed my Fantasy Preview from earlier in the week, you can view that by clicking here.

Important Practice Notes: I was busy and didn’t get a chance to watch practice, but from what I read on Twitter, Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch were experiencing engine problems (ignition boxes). Also, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick bumped into each other a couple times and exchanged a few words. From what I’ve heard, neither car suffered any significant damage.

In the lone practice session of the weekend, the five fastest drivers were:
1. Michael McDowell – 95.893 mph
2. Clint Bowyer – 95.781 mph
3. Jimmie Johnson – 95.752 mph
4. Jamie McMurray – 95.709 mph
5. Scott Speed – 95.670 mph
Complete rankings of this practice can be found by clicking here.
In terms of ten-lap average, the following were fastest during this practice session:
1. Jimmie Johnson – 95.322 mph
2. Jamie McMurray – 95.234 mph
3. Jeff Gordon – 95.174 mph
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – 95.065 mph
5. Marcos Ambrose – 94.898 mph

AVERAGE PRACTICE SPEEDS:

Average practice speeds are calculated by taking the average speed of each driver in each practice and multiplying it by the number of laps ran. When you do this for each practice and add the  totals together, and then divide by the total number of laps ran, you get an average of their practice speed, instead of just the one lap statistic you see when you look at practice sheets.

1. Jamie McMurray at 94.459 mph over 85 laps
2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. at 94.046 mph over 101 laps
3. David Reutimann at 93.892 mph over 51 laps
4. Clint Bowyer at 93.855 mph over 62 laps
5. A.J. Allmendinger at 93.814 mph over 89 laps
6. Martin Truex, Jr. at 93.749 mph over 57 laps
7. Kurt Busch at 93.748 mph over 68 laps
8. Juan Montoya at 93.728 mph over 66 laps
9. Kevin Harvick at 93.727 mph over 65 laps
10. Bobby Labonte at 93.720 mph over 73 laps
11. Ryan Newman at 93.694 mph over 86 laps
12. Marcos Ambrose at 93.657 mph over 60 laps
13. Mark Martin at 93.576 mph over 63 laps
14. David Ragan at 93.570 mph over 102 laps
15. Jeff Gordon at 93.549 mph over 81 laps
16. Jimmie Johnson at 93.499 mph over 107 laps
17. Joey Logano at 93.404 mph over 78 laps
18. Regan Smith at 93.378 mph over 76 laps
19. Tony Stewart at 93.355 mph over 86 laps
20. David Stremme at 93.351 mph over 22 laps
21. Paul Menard at 93.338 mph over 90 laps
22. Brian Vickers at 93.302 mph over 99 laps
23. Denny Hamlin at 93.299 mph over 97 laps
24. Brad Keselowski at 93.093 mph over 71 laps
25. J.J. Yeley at 93.092 mph over 14 laps
26. Reed Sorenson at 93.085 mph over 5 laps
27. Kasey Kahne at 93.078 mph over 73 laps
28. Casey Mears at 93.078 mph over 58 laps
29. Greg Biffle at 93.054 mph over 76 laps
30. Matt Kenseth at 93.047 mph over 72 laps
31. Kyle Busch at 93.013 mph over 107 laps
32. Jeff Burton at 92.838 mph over 66 laps
33. Carl Edwards at 92.818 mph over 68 laps
34. Mike Skinner at 92.813 mph over 24 laps
35. Scott Speed at 92.571 mph over 23 laps
36. Joe Nemechek at 92.614 mph over 6 laps
37. Landon Cassill at 92.541 mph over 43 laps
38. Michael McDowell at 92.350 mph over 40 laps
39. Dave Blaney at 92.280 mph over 34 laps
40. David Gilliland at 92.244 mph over 50 laps
41. Ken Schrader at 91.710 mph over 47 laps
42. Travis Kvapil at 91.369 mph over 42 laps
43. Hermie Sadley at 90.666 mph over 42 laps

A= Really, Really Good Pick

Kevin Harvick – There’s not a safer pick you can make at Talladega then Kevin Harvick. In April Harvick finished 5th and worked heavily with Clint Bowyer. I expect this duo to work together again and have similar results. Another advantage for Harvick is that he’ll have three teammates who are all committed to helping him succeed. Last year at Talladega Harvick finished 1st and 2nd. (Yahoo A Driver)

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson won in April and he worked with none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. Johnson has been an extremely safe pick in the Talladega Chase race for years now (4 consecutive top tens). His non-racing strategy until the end has really worked out well for him.  Johnson might also be worth valuable qualifying points this week as well. In May he started second in what was a Hendrick 1-2-3-4 sweep of the top four spots on qualifying day. (Yahoo A Driver)

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski isn’t a one time wonder at Talladega. He also has two other top tens to his name. At tracks like Talladega everyone wants to partner up with someone who’s successful and I think more drivers than ever will be willing to help him out. Look for him to partner up with Kurt Busch. This duo will be formidable on Sunday and will certainly contend for the win. (Yahoo B Driver)

Kurt Busch – In the three restrictor plate races this year Kurt Busch has the best driver rating (103.8) and he’s averaged 32.6 points a race. Penske is a two car team and as expected I’m projecting his draft partner will be Brad Keselowski. Another possible drafting partner is Regan Smith. I’ve said this in probably all of my restrictor plate fantasy previews but Kurt Busch in the best plate racer who’s never won a points paying race. During Speed Weeks he won the Bud Shootout but that doesn’t pay any points. (Yahoo A Driver)

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A- = Really Good Pick

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – How can anyone not like Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Talladega? It’s the patriotic thing to do. He hasn’t won since 2004 but he’s still a solid driver. One big plus about Junior is that he’ll most likely be working with Jimmie Johnson again and I don’t think he’ll have any problems. In April Junior started 4th. (Yahoo B Driver)

Carl Edwards – Don’t let his 20.9 average finish scare you off. Carl Edwards is the real deal on plate tracks. He nearly won the Daytona 500 and he finished a strong 6th in April. Edwards knows how to get to the front of the pack on plate tracks but he’s had some problems in the past once he got there. Remember he was leading before the “big one” with Brad Keselowski ensued. Edwards has scored the 8th most points on plate tracks this year (98). (Yahoo A Driver)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has three consecutive top tens at Talladega and he’s one of the best pushers in the series. The driver who I expect he’ll be pushing is my projected winner so I think good things are in store for Bowyer this week. Earlier this year he finished second in the three-way photo finish. Bowyer led more laps than anyone (38) and he had the best average running position (5th). Last fall Clint Bowyer won his first race at a track longer than a mile. (Yahoo B Driver)

B+ = Good Pick

Looking for Charlotte Expert Picks?

David Ragan – I think Ragan will team up with Matt Kenseth this week. In the July Daytona race they worked together and finished 1st and 2nd. In the Daytona 500 Ragan almost won but he jumped a late restart and ruined his chances. I feel pretty strongly that plate tracks are David Ragan’s best track type. (Yahoo C Driver)

Paul Menard – Menard finished 12th this spring working with Kevin Harvick for the first half the race then Burton the second half. Since 2008 he’s been pretty competitive at Talladega. His accolades include a second place finish and five top fifteens. In the new era of bump drafting (3 races) Menard has scored MORE points than anyone and has the best average finish. (Yahoo C Driver)

Joey Logano – In five races at Talladega Joey Logano has only finished outside the top ten once (12.6 avg finish, best in series since 2004). That’s quite a feat considering the “wild card” nature of this track. Earlier this year in the bump drafting spectacular Logano finished 10th working heavily with Kyle Busch. Overall in 2011 Logano has scored the 5th most points on restrictor plate tracks (32.3pts a race) and he has the 5th best driver rating (94.1). (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Gordon – Gordon almost won in April working with Mark Martin. Gordon has six career wins and has finished in the top ten in nearly half his starts at NASCAR’s biggest track. In the last two races here he’s finished 8th and 3rd. In May Jeff Gordon also won the pole. What I don’t like about Jeff Gordon is how he’s been performing in the Chase. Some drivers are just snake bitten in the Chase and it looks like Jeff Gordon’s one of them. Another possible drafting partner for Gordon might be Daytona 500 winner Trevor Bayne. (Yahoo A Driver)

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth hasn’t had a top ten at Talladega since 2006. With the exception of the July Daytona race Kenseth (finished second) has struggled on plate tracks this year. He crashed in the Daytona 500 and he crashed at Talladega. Matt typically does better at plate tracks when handling is a premium. Drivers certainly won’t have handling problems this Sunday. (Yahoo A Driver)

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B = Just A Tier Below The Good Picks

Mark Martin – Martin hates this place and avoided it during his partial retirement. Coincidentally it’s been pretty nice to him since he’s been back. In the last three Talladega races he’s finished 5th, 11th and 8th. One possible negative about Martin is that I think he’ll work with Jeff Gordon and he’s been a magnet for problems lately. Martin qualified 3rd earlier this year. (Yahoo B Driver)

Juan Pablo Montoya – Montoya finished 30th at Talladega earlier this year working with Jamie McMurray. Last year at Talladega he finished 3rd in both races. At Daytona this year Montoya finished in the top ten in both races (6th & 9th). Look for him to be running in the back of the pack until the end of the race with McMurray. These two have done a good job drafting with each other. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jamie McMurray – McMurray is a high risk / high reward driver at plate tracks. He’s capable of getting the job done but he’s just as capable of finishing 35th. One concern about McMurray is that Montoya is his only teammate and if he has problems Jamie might have a hard time finding a quality drafting partner. In the three plate races this year McMurray’s finished 18th, 21st and 22nd. (Yahoo B Driver)

B- = You Can Pencil Them In For Around 20th

Tony Stewart – Stewart has been terrible at Talladega lately. He’s a driver who’s stats are padded by much earlier success. Since he won at Talladega in 2008 he hasn’t finished better than 16th. His average finish since his win is 24.4. Stewart has scored the 6th most points on plate tracks this season (92). In May Stewart worked with David Gilliland (very underrated plate racer). (Yahoo A Driver)

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is an exceptional bump drafter but you just don’t see him running at the end of these races. Hamlin has four top tens at Talladega but all seven of his other finishes are 21st or worse. In 2011 Hamlin’s average finish on plate tracks is 19th. Look for Hamlin to once again have Newman be his wing man. (Yahoo A Driver)

Ryan Newman – The fact that he openly states he hates this track should scare you away. He doesn’t like it because he crashes a lot. His average finish in the last four Talladega races is 29.75. That shouldn’t be good in anyone’s book unless you chronically pick drivers who finish 43rd. On plate tracks this year his average finish is 23rd and he’s averaged 22.7 points per race. Look for him to team up with Denny Hamlin. (Yahoo B Driver)

Greg Biffle – Biffle finished 7th earlier this year at Talladega. In the last five races here he has three top tens and has finished in the top twenty every race. Outside of this last five race stretch Biffle has zero other top tens. Biffle’s had a lot of tough luck this year and that can be a fatal at a track like this. Look for him to possibly work with Carl Edwards. (Yahoo A Driver)

Brian Vickers – Vickers is so good at Talladega that he can win with a 30th place car. Since the 2005 Talladega Chase race he’s had somewhat of a knack here. Since then his average finish is 17.7 but its largely skewed due to bad finishes. Vickers has only scored 51 points on plate tracks this year (17 points a race) so beware. Look for him to work with Kasey Kahne in the Good Sam Club 500. (Yahoo B Driver)

C+ = Got Some Question Marks Here

Kyle Busch – If it wasn’t for a win at Talladega in 2008 than Kyle Busch would probably have about a 30th place average finish. His next best finish other than a win is ninth. In the new era (3 races) of bump drafting he’s been competitive. He has two top tens at Daytona and a 35th (accident) place finish at Talladega. Look for him to work with Joey Logano once again. In past plate races they’ve had problems hooking up but they were as good as anyone when it came to switching drafting positions. (Yahoo A Driver)

Kasey Kahne – Kahne has a pair of second place finishes at Talladega but beyond that his history is pretty bleak. Kahne has no other top tens despite the fact he’s raced here fifteen times. That’s a top ten percentage of 13%. I’m projecting he’ll be working with Brian Vickers. (Yahoo B Driver)

David Reutimann – Reutimann has finished 14th or better in the last three Talladega races (14th, 4th and 14th). All of his prior finishes have resulted in a finish of 20th or worse. Reutimann has an average finish of 23rd this year on plate tracks. Look for him to work with Martin Treux Jr. (Yahoo B Driver)

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has scored the third most points on plate tracks this season (101, 33.7 points per race) His finishes this year are 11th, 11th and 10th. In May he finished 11th (only top 15) but beyond that things are pretty bleak. I think he’ll be working with Ambrose. (Yahoo B Driver)

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C = Not Gonna Pick Him

Martin Treux Jr. – Truex finished one spot ahead of his teammate at Talladega earlier this year (13th). He’s had some real tough luck here (where doesn’t he?) throughout his career and his 24.2 average finish reflects that. However in the last three races he’s finished 12th, 6th and 13th. Treux has averaged 22.6 points per race on plate tracks this season. (Yahoo B Driver)

Marcos Ambrose – Ambrose finished 4th in his first Talladega race. He certainly didn’t back it up though. His last four Talladega finishes are 34th, 37th, 34th and 32nd. In the new era of drafting he’s scored the least amount of points of any driver in my preview. He’s scored a grand total of 47 points (15.6 points per race). His best finish in the last three plate races is 17th. I’m projecting he’ll be working with AJ Allmendinger. There’s also a good possibility Ambrose might also work with a Roush Fenway car. (Yahoo B Driver)

Jeff Burton – With the way Burton’s run this year do you think his luck will change at Talladega? I’m betting not. He’s had some really good plate cars as of late but he hasn’t done a good job closing the deal. In the last six Talladega races he has three top tens and three finishes outside the top fifteen. Burton has thirteen top tens in thirty five races at Talladega. (Yahoo B Driver)

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Time For Some Unfamiliar Faces Up Front

First, I would like to thank everyone who commented on last week’s Predictions article as well as those who tweeted it, ‘liked’ it on Facebook, or just simply told a friend to read it. If you’ve been reading these posts all season, you noticed that I changed the way I did things last week. Instead of a full top 15 ranking, I just said what I thought about each of the Chasers as well as some “non-Chasers” that caught my attention. I decided I’m going to do that this week–as well as the for the rest of the season–because it takes less time and I didn’t hear any complaints. If you have any questions about a driver I haven’t listed on here, or would just like some advice on your fantasy roster, feel free to send me a tweet or leave a comment on here. That being said, it seems (to me) that Charlotte is typically one of the better tracks to take some risks when it comes to fantasy racing. There seems to always be some surprises near the front at the end (Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. in 11th earlier this year, for example) and no one is really dominant at this track (only Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson have a average finish better than 13th here). I’m not guaranteeing anything, but with the way this season is going, we may see a surprise driver in victory lane on Saturday night.

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Breaking Down The Chasers:

Carl Edwards – I don’t know about you, but really the only thing in my mind that Carl Edwards has going for him this weekend is his starting position (3rd) and his team’s rebound in Kansas last weekend. The #99 Ford looked just alright in practice, ending up 15th on the average speed chart and 18th on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour. Carl’s best finish in the last four Charlotte races has been 12th, although he did have the fourth-best driver rating in the Coca Cola 600 earlier this year while leading 61 laps. He was 19th in both practice sessions on Friday. I don’t think he has a shot at a win, but Edwards should get a top 10 on Saturday night and make it eight straight in Sprint Cup action.

Kevin Harvick – This is Kevin Harvick’s second-worst track on the circuit, and let’s not forget that he had nowhere near the best car here in May when he snatched the win away from Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Harvick starts 14th on Saturday and had the 9th-best average speed during the two practice sessions on Friday, though, which are a little out of character for “Happy” at Charlotte (he hasn’t started inside the top 20 at a Charlotte points-paying race since 2008) and he also had the fifth-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. It would surprise the hell out of me if Harvick came home anywhere near the top 5 on Saturday night. Maybe a top 10, but I’m thinking a teens finish is more likely for the #29 Chevrolet.

Jimmie Johnson – JJ’s engine blew in the last race at Charlotte (how often does that happen?) and he finished 28th, but when you look at the last three October races here, Johnson’s statistics look like this: one win, a worst finish of 6th, and 174 laps led. This team has been dominant on the intermediate tracks as of late and, as I said in my Fantasy Preview, this team has kept their best cars for the Chase this year. Jimmie ended up in the top 7 in both sessions in terms of ten-lap average and was 12th on the average speed chart. For the second week in a row, I’ll say that Johnson is pretty much a lock for a top 5 and should challenge for his third win of the season.

Brad Keselowski – I have high expectations for Bad Brad on Saturday night despite him starting 26th. He described his car as “perfect” in the first practice session on Saturday after laying down one of the fastest laps of the day, and the Blue Deuce ended up 5th on the ten-lap average chart in that session. The team kept working on the car once Brad said not to touch it, and ESPN reported that they were trying to perfect it for the race. That’s why I’m not too worried about Keselowski being 20th on the average speed chart. He tweeted a couple times (here and here) about loving his car this weekend, and Brad generally don’t say much unless he has a good Dodge for the race. I expect BK to be near the front (top 10) by the end of the race Saturday night and stay right in the middle of this championship battle going into Talladega.

Matt Kenseth – In case you missed my tweet from Friday afternoon, Matt Kenseth has the best average starting position this year since the 2006 season, where he finished 2nd in the points standings. He will start from the outside pole on Saturday night, and although I don’t think he will stay up there, a solid top 10 is definitely within Kenseth’s grasps. In the last five points-paying races at Charlotte, Matt has four top 10s and a worst finish of 14th. His career average finish at this track is right around 15th.

Kurt Busch – I’m not as optimistic for Kurt on Saturday night as I am his team mate, but he should still have a good Dodge, and one better than what he showed in qualifying (Busch will start the Bank of America 500 in 20th). As I said in my Fantasy Preview, last week’s 13th-place finish at Kansas has been the worst for the elder Busch brother at the tri-oval intermediate tracks all season. His average speeds weren’t awesome on Friday, but the Double Deuce was in the top 10 in both practice sessions (in terms of one fast lap). I don’t see Busch finishing much worse than 14th or 15th, and he may have a shot at a top 10 Saturday night when it’s all said and done.

Tony Stewart – I don’t know about you, but “Smoke” winning the pole for this week’s race really surprised me. Since 2004, Stewart has had just one other pole on the intermediate tri-oval tracks, and he has just one start inside the top 20 in the last five points-paying races here. Stewart hasn’t had a top 10 at Charlotte since 2007 but I expect him to change that–with ease–on Saturday night. Both the #14 Chevrolet and his team mate’s #39 Chevrolet have looked wicked fast since they came off the truck. Obviously, track position is important and Tony already has that, but he also ended up in the top 6 in both practice sessions (in terms of ten-lap average) and Stewart was 4th on the average speed chart. I think “Smoke” will lead early and often on Saturday night and be challenging for the win at the end of the night.

Kyle Busch – I haven’t heard much on Kyle Busch and the #18 Toyota this weekend, so I’m not exactly sure what to expect out of his on Saturday night. He will start the Bank of America 500 in 25th, and he’s pretty much hit-or-miss at Charlotte (eight top 10s in twenty career starts along with seven finishes outside of the top 20). “Rowdy” would normally be the first driver I would pick to drive up through the field, but in four races at Charlotte where he has started outside of the top 20, Kyle has the following “stellar” finishes: 32nd, 38th, 34th, and 32nd. You can’t overlook the fact that Busch has seven top 10s in the last eight points-paying races here, though, as well as the best average driver rating in the past five. He was 8th in both practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – As I said in my Fantasy Preview, avoid. 31st in first practice, 20th in Happy Hour, and not one single ten-lap run for Junior on Friday. Before his (lucky) 7th-place finish here in May, Earnhardt hadn’t posted a top 20 in five-straight Charlotte races. It’d probably feel like a win for this team to finish in the high teens.

Jeff Gordon – I’m just not seeing much of a reason to pick Jeff Gordon this weekend. Yes, he has found a lot of success at this race track–five wins and twenty total top 10s in thirty-seven starts–but this team struggled on these intermediate tracks earlier in the season and in the last two (Chicago and Kansas) Gordon has finished 24th and 34th, respectively. The last two points-paying races at Charlotte have ended with the #24 Chevrolet in 23rd and 20th, despite Gordon starting 1st and 11th. He was 10th out of 15 cars in the first Friday practice in terms of ten-lap average and 17th out of 26 in Happy Hour. Unless I see something incredible in the crew chief notes, Jeff Gordon won’t be on my rosters this weekend.

Ryan Newman – When he was interviewed after the first practice session on Friday, Newman said that this is the best car he’s had at Charlotte in a while. I had “The Rocketman” on my “Avoid” list in my Fantasy Preview, but I’m majorly backing off of that statement now. Newman’s ten-lap averages weren’t very impressive (12th in the first session, 11th in Happy Hour) but his team mate is very fast and Ryan obviously likes his Chevrolet. Be careful if you pick him, though: in twenty-one starts at Charlotte, Newman has just seven top 10s.

Denny Hamlin – He has two straight top 10s at Charlotte, but I wouldn’t advise picking Denny Hamlin on Saturday night. In twelve career starts here, he has just one top 5 and five total top 10s. Denny will start the Bank of America 500 in 17th place, and I’m expecting him to finish right around there as well, but maybe a little better. Hamlin had the 13rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and was 14th on the average speed chart. In terms of one fast lap, though, Hamlin’s #11 Toyota wasn’t better than 20th in either of the practice sessions on Friday. I’ll pass.

“Non-Chasers” I Have My Eyes On:

A.J. Allmendinger – A.J. has had a couple good runs on the intermediates this season, but other than that he has been a late-teens or twenties driver on them. He will start the race on Saturday night in 4th, which is the third-straight top 5 start for Allmendinger at this track, but I just don’t see him staying up there all night like I see some of the others doing. The Dinger was 8th on the average speed chart, though, and ended up 9th in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average. He finished 5th here in May but was more of a teens driver for the majority of that race. 

Greg Biffle – Biffle will start Saturday night’s race in 5th and had the second-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour, so he may be able to contend for a while after the green flag has waved. However, it’s hard for me to overlook this team’s bad fortune on the intermediate tracks this season, and although he finished 8th at Kansas last weekend, you have to forget quickly in fantasy racing. Biffle ended up 3rd on the average speed chart and has just one finish outside of the top 20 in the last seven points-paying races here. If he doesn’t get a top 10, expect a finish around 12th to 15th out of Greg on Saturday night.

Paul Menard – As I’m typing this, Paul is holding his own in the Nationwide race after starting on the pole, and going into Saturday night’s race it looks like he may have a real good Chevrolet for the race. However, we’ve all seen this story before, so you can’t really rely on Menard. He was in the top 5 in both of Friday’s practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average, and he ended up 5th on the overall average speed chart. However, I just don’t see Menard being much better than a teens driver this weekend. His average finish in nine career starts here has been 24.4.

Kasey Kahne – I’ve foolishly avoided Kasey Kahne for the last couple weeks (I need to take my own advice of forgetting easily) but even though this team has been very unreliable this season, this little run that they are starting is comparable to Brad Keselowski’s in the summer. If there was a late caution in the Kansas race last Sunday, I think the #4 Toyota would have been in victory lane, and I think he’ll have a shot at the win on Saturday night as well. Kahne had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and had the best overall average speed during the two practice sessions on Friday. In fifteen career starts here, Kasey has three wins and an average finish of around 14th.

Trevor Bayne – In case you don’t remember the last race at Charlotte, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. made his first Cup start in this #21 Wood Brothers Ford and ended up 11th after starting the race in 9th. Trevor Bayne is back in this car for the Bank of America 500 this weekend and he will start the race in 10th, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him get a solid top 20, although I just don’t see a top 10 happening. Bayne was 10th on the average speed chart but didn’t make a single ten-lap run in either practice on Friday and was in the twenties on both charts. 

Marcos Ambrose - His team mate, A.J. Allmendinger, is getting a lot of attention this weekend, but I think Marcos Ambrose has a better Ford than The Dinger for the race on Saturday night. Marcos went out and qualified in 12th on Saturday night and had the 7th-fastest lap in Happy Hour after posting the 11th-fastest in the first session on Friday. The #9 Ford was 16th out of 26 cars in terms of ten-lap average during the final practice, but Ambrose ended up in 6th on the overall average speed chart and he finished 6th in the Coca Cola 600 in May after starting 24th.