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Michigan Quicken Loans 400 Top 15 Prediction Ranking Picks

Ryan Rantz — Sat, 15 Jun 2013 20:34:31 +0000

Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

1. Jimmie Johnson – Michigan is one of five tracks that Jimmie Johnson is winless. His track record certainly shouldn’t be that way though. Last August if his motor didn’t blow up in the closing laps he would’ve won. He also had two other races slip away from him because of fuel mileage. The smart money likes Johnson this week. He’s the odds on favorite to win. Last year at Michigan Johnson was very good. He started in the rear of the field both races and had top five potential in both of them. In the June race on the brand new surface he finished 5th. In August 2011 he had his best result and finished 2nd. On Sunday Johnson will start in 17th. Today in practice the #48 car was very strong. Their lap times were consistently fast. In both practices today he recorded the second best 10 lap average. In practice #2 following a ten lap run he said “Awesome race car boys”. My prediction is Jimmie Johnson will get his first win at Michigan on Fathers Day.

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2. Kasey Kahne – In August Kasey Kahne was very impressive at Michigan. He started in 5th, finished 3rd and earned the second best driver rating. He could’ve been even better in the race because he was running in second but was involved in the Mark Martin freak accident. His PROS Rankings for the event was second. Kasey Kahne has had success at Michigan. He’s a former winner and has finished in the top five nearly 40% percent of the time. The main reason why I’m so high on Kahne for the Quicken Loans 400 is how good he’s been on high-speed intermediate tracks this season. He has a 5.2 average result, finished 2nd 60% percent of the time and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Kasey Kahne’s chassis selection for this race is a proven commodity. It finished 2nd at Kansas and 2nd at Charlotte. Kahne qualified third for the event. Today in practice Kasey Kahne arguably had the best car. In both practice sessions he recorded the best 10 lap average. Also in Happy Hour he was fast over short runs and had the best 5 lap average (early in practice).

Recommended posts to check out: Jordan’s Top 15 Rankings, 10 Lap Average Big Board, Happy Hour Speeds, Happy Hour Practice Notes

3. Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth certainly isn’t a bad bet to win the Michigan Quicken Loans 400. Two different sport books have his odds at 7/1. The reason why he’s so well liked is based on two different factors. He’s awesome at Michigan and he’s arguably been the best high-speed intermediate track driver this season. At Michigan Kenseth has finished in the top five 44% percent of the time and has won twice. In his twenty two races here he has a 9.6 average finish. Last June at MIS he led 17 laps and finished 3rd. In August he likely had a top ten car but had a cut tire. This season on high-speed intermediate tracks Kenseth has been the driver to beat. On them he has 2 wins, a 7.2 average finish, a 6.0 average running position, and the best driver rating in the series. On Sunday Kenseth will start in 8th. Today in practice Kenseth ran some fast lap times but I would rank them slightly below Johnson and Kahne’s.

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Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Pocono – Party in the Poconos 400

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 08 Jun 2013 20:22:09 +0000

Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

Johnson’s Revenge

This week we’re at the 2.5-mile Pocono Raceway, a venue that is considered a flat track yet the cars will still probably top 200 mph going into turn one. Nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle,” this track is one of the toughest on the circuit to get the driver completely happy, and usually there won’t be any cars that will be perfect in all three turns. Remember, Pocono was re-paved before the two races here last season, and because of that those will be the main stats that I will focus on this week. Qualifying was rained out on Friday so Jimmie Johnson will start on the pole because he is the points leader. The full starting lineup for the Party in the Poconos 400 can be found by clicking here. There were two practice sessions on Saturday and the full results of those can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Additionally, Ryan put together a bunch of in-depth notes for various drivers during those two practice and those can be read here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Party in the Poconos 400:

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11. Ryan Newman – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Believe it or not, Pocono is actually a pretty good track for Ryan Newman. I guess it isn’t totally surprising because it is a flat track, but it’s his 3rd-best track on the circuit and his 12.4 average finish here is good enough for 6th-best among active drivers. The Rocketman won from the pole here back in 2003 and has always been a solid fantasy when the series visits the Poconos. Since 2008 (nine races), Newman has never finished worse than 14th and he owns four top 10s during that span, including three in the last four races. Even though Stewart-Haas Racing has been seen as the organization with the most struggles in 2013, Newman actually has six top 10s to his credit already this season. It’s worth noting that in the two races here at Pocono in 2012, “The Rocketman” had the highest percentage of laps ran inside the top 15 (94.5%). In Happy Hour Newman ended up 5th fastest. He has a lot of cars to pass and that’s why I have him ranked outside of the top 10. I do think his car is better than this ranking.

12. Denny Hamlin – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Any time a driver says “we are bad” after a practice, there’s cause for concern. However, Denny Hamlin gets a little bit of a pass at Pocono because he used be a “sure” pick here. In his rookie season, he started on the pole in each of the two events here and dominated them both, ended up in victory lane each time. He went on to post three more top 6 finishes after that, and in 2009 and 2010 he won again at The Tricky Triangle. I’ll go out on a small limb here and say Hamlin knows how to get around this place better than any other driver in the series. There’s a reason that in fourteen career starts here he has led at least double-digit laps in ten of them. Last season Denny posted a 5th-place finish in the spring and followed that up with a 29th-place result in the fall, although he had a much better car than that and just got caught up in an accident. This ranking is probably too low for a guy like Hamlin but he starts mid-pack, wasn’t overly fast during the practice sessions, and then you have to take into account the engine problems that JGR has been having.

13. Jeff Gordon – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I really like what this #24 team is doing right now, and often times in fantasy racing you have to ride the hot hand. Gordon now has two 3rd-place finishes in the last three Sprint Cup events and he has finished worse than 11th just once since Kansas in April. As far as Pocono Raceway goes, Jeff is a six-time winner at the track and was the major beneficiary of the rain that fell her last fall that put him in victory lane. Goedon also won the spring race here in 2011 and has finished outside of the top 10 just twice in the last nine events here. It’s looking like we’re about to be able to trust Jeff Gordon again, so don’t be caught sleeping this weekend. He didn’t put down a great lap in either practice session on Saturday but the rest of the Hendrick cars are fast and Gordon should be too by the end of the 400 miles on Sunday.

14. Joey Logano – Starts 21st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

After his 5th-place run at Charlotte and his 7th-place effort at Dover last weekend, it’s safe to say that Joey Logano has a little bit of momentum on his side coming into Pocono. Let’s not forget that in this race last season Joey had a very strong car off the truck, won the pole, and eventually found himself in victory lane after bumping Mark Martin out of the way. He followed that effort with a solid 13th-place finish in the fall. Penske Racing has been pretty strong here at Pocono over the years and there’s no reason to think that Logano won’t be a nice fantasy pick again on Sunday. It’s going to take some work from this team to get the #22 Ford into “top 10 material,” but they have shown that they can do that so I’m not overly concerned.

15. Greg Biffle – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

There are two ways you can view Greg Biffle in a fantasy perspective this weekend: 1.) this team is struggling mightily, still haven’t figured out this Gen-6 car, and should be avoided at all costs, or 2.) Pocono has been a good race track for The Biff and this is the weekend he finally gets his season back on track. Right now I’m leaning toward option #2. In the two races here last season, the #16 Ford had the second-best average running position (9.5) despite the fact that Biffle finished 24th and 15th. Obviously those results are misleading. Greg won here in 2010 and has a career average finish of 17.5 at The Tricky Triangle. During Happy Hour on Saturday, the #16 Ford was 11th fastest, and I think The Biff will be a solid top 15 car all day on Sunday. How far he moves up in the field will depend on how well this team adjusts on the car, and so far this season they have shown to be pretty much incompetent in that department.

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Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Dover – FedEx 400

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 01 Jun 2013 20:34:02 +0000

Credit: John Harrelson/Harrelson Photography Inc.

Can Kurt Continue His Strong Run Of Races?

This week we’re at “The Monster Mile,” Dover International Speedway, for the FedEx 400. Track position is pretty important here because cars start getting lapped so quick, and it’s worth noting that in 9 of the last 10 races here, the winner has started inside the top 10. Additionally, almost half of all of the Dover race winners have started in the first two rows. Denny Hamlin won the pole for Sunday’s race, and the full starting lineup for the race can be found by clicking here. There were three practice sessions on Friday, and I would rank them by importance in the order that they were ran. Happy Hour speeds are the ones I’ll be focusing on the most. Click here for each session’s speeds: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, be sure to check out Ryan’s in-depth practice notes for each session: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Finally, we did a LIVE Happy Hour analysis again this week, and that can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The FedEx 400:

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11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

With the Hendrick cars so fast on Saturday, Junior was kind of skipped over by most people because he was the slowest. That being said, he still has a pretty good Chevrolet underneath him and should challenge for a top 10 in the FedEx 400 on Sunday. Earnhardt was 4th in this event one year ago and followed that up with a solid 11th-place finish in the fall. He’ll roll off the grid in 12th when the green flag waves Sunday, which is a lot better than where he normally qualifies here. In final practice, Junior ended up 10th-fastest and never made a long run. He didn’t show up on the ten-lap average chart in Practice #2 either, which is a little concerning to me. Still, he has finished 12th or better in three of the last four Dover races and needs a good bounce-back week after his 39th-place finish at Charlotte last week. I don’t think the #88 will be that great on Sunday but a top 10 isn’t out of the question for this team.

12. Carl Edwards – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

This #99 team doesn’t make long runs in practice, and while I don’t think that’s the best move at a track like Dover, it obviously works out for them because Cousin Carl has the best average finish at this track among active drivers (8.3). He’s only won here once (back in 2007) but his consistency at The Monster Mile is amazing. In the last thirteen events here, Edwards has only finished outside of the top 11 once, and that was in this race last season (he ended up 26th–Carl’s worst finish here and only result outside of the top 10). The Roush-Fenway Fords don’t seem real strong this weekend (as a group), but the #99 is the fastest. He’s using chassis RK-802, which was ran at Richmond where Carl finished 6th. I’ll say this about Edwards this weekend: he’s better than his 20th-place ranking in Happy Hour. How much better? I’m not exactly sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he was challenging for a top 10 at the end of the 400 miles on Sunday.

13. Kurt Busch – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Kurt Busch paced Happy Hour on Saturday, but if you paid attention to his lap times it was quite evident that this car isn’t that good on the long runs. A fuel run at Dover was right around 65 laps last season, and although Busch could pass some cars early on in the run, he’ll eventually lose those positions (and probably more) as the run goes on–if the team doesn’t help the car before the race. Everyone is on the Kurt Busch bandwagon right now but he’s still a risky pick in fantasy. Yeah, this team has had a few good weeks in a row and he’s finishing races, but they’re still a single car operation and Kurt could still explode at any minute. If he makes it through the whole race on Sunday, I expect a top 15 out of Busch, but not much more. He has surprised me in the past, though… Kurt won here in 2011 while still driving for Penske.

14. Jeff Gordon – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Jeff Gordon is an interesting pick this week. This team started getting a little momentum right around the Richmond through Darlington races, and then last week at Charlotte the #24 Chevrolet ended up 35th. Historically this has been a pretty good track for Jeff Gordon, though, as he’s won four times and has finished inside the top 10 in over half of his 40 career starts. Gordon ended up 2nd in the fall race here last season, but before that his last top 10 came in 2009. During that five-race streak of finishes outside of the top 10, though, Gordon ended up between 11th and 13th in four of the races. He knows how to get around this place and the #24 was pretty strong in Happy Hour, posting the 5th-fastest lap and 4th-best ten-lap average. Like teammate Jimmie Johnson, Gordon will have a few cars to pass when the green flag waves, but a top 10 is within reach for this team if everything goes right. However, Gordon is still hard to trust right now, and this team isn’t hitting on all cylinders.

15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

One surprise during the two practice sessions on Saturday was the #1 Chevrolet and Jamie McMurray. In each, he ranked inside the top 5 in ten-lap average, and Jamie even posted the 6th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. He hasn’t had a top 10 here at Dover since 2008–and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday–but a top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this team. Over the last five races here, McMurray has averaged a finish of right around 18th. He’ll roll off the grid in 10th on Sunday, so that should help him during pit stops at keeping track position. As far as other “short” tracks (Dover is kind of different), McMurray has posted top 10s this year at both Bristol and Martinsville. He could surprise some people again on Sunday, but I don’t think he has the speed in the car to pull off a top 10 in the FedEx 400.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Greg Biffle and the #16 team is completely lost once again and should be avoided at all costs. As I said before, the RCR drivers just flat-out struggled in Happy Hour. Jeff Burton is on the avoid list (as usual) and I think there are better sleeper options than Paul Menard, too. Mark Martin will start the FedEx 400 from 6th but I still wouldn’t take him. He hasn’t had a top 20 since Kansas in April and wasn’t blazing fast in practice like he is during the weeks I give him some consideration. Martin finished 3rd here last fall but remember that race came down to fuel mileage. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. popped into the top 10 during Happy Hour, but that was one fast lap and his long run speed didn’t impress me at all. He starts 23rd and if he can stay on the lead lap, Stenhouse might be able to pull out a top 15. He ended up 12th here last fall (again, fuel). It’s still hard for me to get a read on the Stewart-Haas cars in practice, so I’m not sure what to think of Ryan Newman, who will start 5th. He’s won here at Dover three times but hasn’t posted a top 10 since 2010. He’s still a bit too risky for me to recommend him. Juan Montoya starts 14th and showed some speed in both practice sessions on Saturday, but his record here is terrible: 23.6 average finish and one top 20 in the last six events. Austin Dillon is in the #51 this weekend and should finish around where he starts (25th). The Petty teammates of Marcos Ambrose and Aric Almirola were a couple of my sleepers coming into the weekend, but they start so far back (30th and 33rd, respectively) that I’m not even considering them anymore. They could be decent picks in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, and in that case I would take the #43 over the #9. Casey Mears starts 17th on Sunday and if you need a deep sleeper, he’s your guy. The #13 Ford was around the top 20 in both practice sessions on Saturday, and as long as this team doesn’t make mistakes (this isn’t very likely to happen), Mears could snatch a top 20. It’s nowhere near being guaranteed, though.

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Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Charlotte – Coca-Cola 600

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 25 May 2013 21:05:34 +0000

Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

A Seventh For JJ?

NASCAR’s longest race of the season is on Sunday and we have more data to analyze this weekend than usual. The All Star Race was here at Charlotte last Saturday and the cars were on the track for three separate practice sessions this weekend in preparation for the 600-miler on Sunday. With it being such a long race, there are generally some concerns about mechanical failures, but those can’t be predicted. Denny Hamlin put his #11 Toyota on the pole Thursday, barely edging out Kurt Busch. The full starting lineup for the 2013 Coca-Cola 600 can be found by clicking here. To view the practice speeds of the weekend, those can be found here (I wouldn’t pay much attention to the first session): Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. In-depth notes from each session can be found here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. And finally, a new ifantasyrace feature debuted this week: Live Happy Hour Analysis, so be sure to check that out.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Coca-Cola 600:

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11. Joey Logano – Starts 31st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The #22 was really, really strong in the All Star Race last weekend and that gave me high hopes for Logano coming into this weekend. Then he went out and qualified 31st on Thursday and my expectations lowered. That being said, Logano had a couple real strong practice sessions on Saturday and his #22 Ford is really good in race trim. He is sneakily becoming one of the better intermediate track racers in the series and because this race is 600 miles, that gives Joey plenty of time to get through the field. Something that will probably hinder him on Sunday night, however, is his pit stall selection. Logano is in stall #2 right behind Denny Hamlin and right in front of Martin Truex, Jr. There could definitely be problems there. Going into the race I think Joey has a top 10 car but whether or not he’ll finish there is up in the air. This is, statistically, the best track on the circuit for Logano.

12. Kevin Harvick – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

“Happy” Harvick has now posted top 5s in two of the last three points-paying Sprint Cup races, but I still don’t have a lot of confidence in this team. Harvick was middle-of-the-road during the practice sessions on Saturday and that’s how this team has been for most of the season. That being said, Charlotte has been one of Harvick’s better tracks as of late, although his career average finish of 18th here suggests otherwise. The #29 was 8th in this race one year ago after winning the 2011 Coca-Cola 600. In fact, Harvick has finished 11th or better in five of the last six Charlotte races. This ranking will probably end up being too low for the #29 but I just think there are better (and safer) options this week.

13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Jamie Mac is on my radar almost every weekend because I like how much the Earnhardt-Ganassi organization has turned things around this season. He went out and put the #1 Chevrolet in 9th during qualifying on Thursday and followed that up with some real strong practice sessions on Saturday (10th-fastest in Practice #2 and 6th quick in Happy Hour). Additionally, McMurray had the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour after posting the 7th-best in Practice #2. He’s a two-time winner at Charlotte Motor Speedway and finished 21st and 17th here last season despite being in such a major slump. It’s definitely risky to take Jamie but if he doesn’t run into any problems on Sunday night I think he could challenge for a top 10. Keep in mind how strong he was in the Sprint Showdown last weekend and McMurray finished 8th in the All Star Race.

14. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Truex and the #56 Toyota haven’t been extremely fast this weekend, but he’s still one of the better intermediate track racers in the series and is decent here at Charlotte. Last season Truex finished 12th and 10th in the two points-paying races at this track. He’ll roll off the grid in 17th on Sunday night and I expect him to run around there for most of the race. I wouldn’t expect the world out of this team but a top 15 is definitely within reach. Martin was 11th-fastest in practice #2 on Saturday with the 3rd-best ten-lap average. As far as pit stall selection, Truex will have Joey Logano directly in front of him but should have an easy entrance because Dave Blaney is behind him in stall #4.

15. Paul Menard – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Menard’s record here at Charlotte isn’t very good (average finish of 23.3 in 12 career starts with just one top 10) but he’s ended up around the top 15 in two of the last four events here and I’m expecting something similar out of the #27 team on Sunday night. Paul ended up 9th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday as well as in Practice #2 earlier. He had the 5th-best ten-lap average in the first session and should be able to pass some cars when the green flag drops on Sunday night. He starts mid-pack but there will be plenty of time to make moves. I don’t think Menard can get up around the top 10 in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 but a top 15 is within reach for this team.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Mark Martin will roll off the grid in 4th on Sunday but I wouldn’t expect him to stay up there for very long. He’s very good at qualifying here (and in general) but getting the finish is where Martin is lacking. I also don’t like the fact that Rodney Childers can never seem to keep up with the track conditions of a night race. A top 15 is possible but not much more. The Stewart-Haas cars of Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart still don’t have the speed that they should. Newman qualified 10th but it would surprise me if he ended up anywhere near there. I don’t see any reason to put him or Stewart on your rosters. Brad Keselowski didn’t impress me very much in the practice sessions this weekend but I’m sure he’ll still be good for solid top 15, if not top 10, finish. I do think there are better options available, though. Casey Mears could surprise some people this weekend and challenge for another top 20. He qualified 21st on Thursday and was in the teens in both practice sessions Saturday. In deeper leagues he’s probably worth a shot. Mears finished 22nd in the 2012 Coca-Cola 600. Finally, Jeff Gordon put a solid race together back at Darlington, but will he be able to do that again on Sunday? I don’t think the car is that bad this weekend, and he qualified 14th, but Gordon just isn’t trustworthy enough right now, in my opinion.

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Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Darlington – Bojangles Southern 500

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 11 May 2013 01:03:36 +0000

Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Hamlin’s First Race Back: Should You Pick Him?

This week we’re at Darlington Raceway for the annual Southern 500, and unlike most weekends there are a whole lot of extra variables that we, as fantasy racers, have to consider; it’s Denny Hamlin’s first full race back since his back injury, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth’s crew chiefs are both suspended, and there’s rain in the forecast for Saturday night (the last time I checked, there was a 50% chance). Darlington is a venue that truly is a skill track. It’s a tough place to get around for just one lap, let alone the 367 scheduled. The best drivers will rise to the top by the end of the race, so this generally isn’t a week to take sleepers. That being said, sometimes there are surprises.

There were two practice sessions this weekend, both on Friday before qualifying. For the full practice results, you can find them here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, Ryan does a great job with notes for each practice sessions, and those can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. It’s worth noting that in Happy Hour teams focused mainly on qualifying, so one could make a very good argument that those speeds aren’t very important this week. Kurt Busch will lead the field to the green on Saturday night, and the full starting lineup for the 2013 Southern 500 can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Southern 500:

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11. Clint Bowyer – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Clint Bowyer’s record at “The Lady In Black” is anything but amazing, but when he actually finishes the race he tends to be good for at least a top 15 finish. He ended up 11th in this race one year ago and in 2007, Clint ended up 9th after a pole run in qualifying. The #15 Toyota ended up with the 5th-best ten-lap average in first practice, so there looks to be some consistent speed there. Also, this team has some momentum on their side, so Bowyer might surprise me this weekend. In the last five Sprint Cup races, the #15 has finished inside the top 5 in three of them. It was reported that Bowyer’s crew chief sounded really confident in practice, if that’s worth anything to you.

12. Kevin Harvick– Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Harvick was 9th on the ten-lap average chart in first practice on Saturday and might be able to challenge for a top 10 if he doesn’t fade late in the race, which has happened a lot more often than not this season. He starts 10th, which is good and a little surprising, and it does seem like this team is finally starting to get something going. Still, Richard Childress Racing has been anything but reliable this season, so you have to keep that in mind if you’re going to take any of the drivers from that stable. In sixteen career starts at Darlington, Harvick has averaged a finish of 18.8 with eight finishes inside the top 15. He should be able to make it nine on Saturday night, but I don’t think he’ll be able to add another top 10 to his resume here.

13. Jeff Gordon – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Finally this team is starting to run a little better. Jeff Gordon has now finished 13th or better in the last three Sprint Cup races and he should easily make it four in a row on Saturday night. There’s some risk in taking the #24 this week, but that’s only because Gordon has disappointed fantasy owners all season long (except Martinsville). Jeff is a 7-time winner at Darlington with the most recent victory coming in 2007. He finished 35th here last season but from 2004 to 2010, Gordon finished inside the top 5 in every single race here. It’s obvious that he knows how to get around this track, so it will all depend on whether or not he can bring it home on Saturday. The #24 was inside the top 10 in ten-lap average during the first practice session, so Gordon should be good on the long runs–and it doesn’t hurt that he starts 8th.

14. Greg Biffle – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This ranking is probably going to end up being too low for The Biff come Saturday night, but this team is struggling to get finishes right now and you have to take that into consideration as a fantasy racer. That being said, the #16 Ford will roll off the grid in 9th on Saturday night and was inside the top 10 in both practice sessions on Friday. Also, Greg’s record here isn’t too shabby: in twelve career starts here, Biffle has averaged a finish of 14th and recorded eight finishes of 12th or better, including two wins in 2005 and 2006. There’s more risk than normal in taking the #16 this weekend but if Biffle can get through the whole race he could challenge for a top 10.

15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 26th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Penske Racing hasn’t been on top of their game this season when it comes to qualifying, so Keselowski and Logano’s poor starting spots can’t be too surprising. Paul Wolfe won’t be at the track this week, so it will be interesting to see how this Blue Deuce team responds. It’s a little worrisome, but then again Brad is a champion for a reason. In four career starts here at Darlington, BK owns an average finish of 9.3 with a career-best finish of 3rd coming here in 2011. He hasn’t finished worse than 15th at this track and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night, either. Kez worked on race trim in both practice sessions on Friday and he always finds a way to get the finish. There’s quite a few other drivers I would take before Keselowski this week but he could still be a solid pick, especially in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Regan Smith is going to be a popular sleeper this weekend. He won here in 2011 (I use that term loosely, as Carl Edwards let him win) but has finished 17th or better in his last three starts here. For whatever reason, the #51 team has been terrible at setting this car up for qualifying all season long, so Smith has some work to do on Saturday night. If he can stay on the lead lap, a top 20 is possible. Paul Menard showed some good speed in practice on Friday (as well as the best ten-lap average in the first session) and ended up 15th in qualifying. He could surprise some people but a good finish isn’t guaranteed for him. He ended up 13th here one year ago. Jeff Burton will start 11th in this year’s Southern 500 but I wouldn’t expect that good of a finish. He definitely knows how to race here, but it’s Jeff Burton. He just doesn’t have the aggressiveness to finish strong here anymore. It’s worth noting, however, Burton has top 20s in six of the last seven Darlington races, and that includes four top 10s. Mark Martin isn’t good here anymore, and the #55 car isn’t that fast this weekend, either. A top 20 is within reach but not much more. Juan Montoya will start 12th on Saturday night, and although he does have a 5th-place finish to his credit here at Darlington (back in 2010), he’s far too risky of a pick for me to consider in any league. I was hoping to see more speed out of Aric Almirola this weekend because I like what this team has going right now. He was 19th here one year ago and I expect his top 10 streak to come to an end on Saturday night. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. qualified 14th for his first Sprint Cup start at “The Track Too Tough To Tame,” but this venue is not very nice to rookies. You definitely don’t want to use him in allocation leagues this week, and in other leagues there are just too many other options in his tier that are better picks. Finally, Joey Logano, who finished 10th in this race one year ago, might be one driver to consider in some deeper leagues because he did have the 6th-best ten-lap average in first practice. He’ll roll off the grid in 30th but should move up somewhat quickly once the green flag waves. How far will he make it? It’s not certain, but I think Joey will challenge for a top 15.

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Talladega Aaron’s 499 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Predictions

Ryan Rantz — Sat, 04 May 2013 17:27:52 +0000

Credit: Rainier Ehrhardt/Getty Images

1. Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer is arguably the safest fantasy pick you can make for the Talladega Aaron’s 499. I truly believe he provides you the best chance to get a good finish and avoid “The Big One”. He’s a two-time winner at Talladega and has finished in the top twelve in 9 of the last 11 races. One of his non top twelve finishes came in last falls race. In that event he was the leader at the start of the Green-White-Checker but Matt Kenseth came down on the track and it got Bowyer out of line which lead to his involvement in the “Big One”. Prior to the 2012 fall race he had five consecutive top 7 finishes. In terms of Restrictor Plate Track Type Strength Rankings I have him ranked #2. Another factor I like about Bowyer is that he’s starting to build momentum (external link to FRCS). He’s finished in the top five in four of the last six weeks.

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2. Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth is deservedly a very popular pick this week. Last year on this track type he dominated the competition. At Talladega he was very good last season. He finished 3rd in the spring race and won the fall race. This season he’s no longer with Roush Fenway but he still appears to be strong. In the Daytona 500 he led nearly half the race (86 laps) but was sidelined with an engine failure. In terms of Restrictor Plate Track Type Strength Rankings he’s a unanimous #1. The reason why I don’t have Matt Kenseth #1 this week is his track history. Prior to last season his most recent top ten finish here was in 2006.

Looking for a Dark Horse Driver? Here’s six sleeper options

3. Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski has been very successful at Talladega. He’s the defending champion of the spring race and he also won here in 2009. In terms of him being a safe pick I believe he comes a close second to Clint Bowyer. As long as he doesn’t have problems here he’s a lock for a top ten. He’s raced here 8 times and has finished in the top ten 75% percent of the time. Currently he has three consecutive top 7 finishes. If your fantasy league rewards points for leading laps he’s a very good prospect. Only once in his career here has he failed to not lead any laps. In the season opening Daytona 500 he finished 4th.

4. Kevin Harvick – Momentum is a magical force in fantasy racing and Kevin Harvick has some by virtue of his win last week. In terms of track type strength he’s very good on this type of venue. I think the era of tandem drafting was a setback for him but now that it’s gone his fantasy value is higher in my eyes. In the Daytona 500 earlier this season Kevin Harvick was the favorite to win because he won the Shootout and his Duel race. In the Daytona 500 he didn’t get a chance to show his muscle because he was involved in a wreck early. From a career perspective Harvick has been a relativley safe option. He’s finished in the top twelve 54% percent of the time. Last fall at Talladega Harvick had a top five car but got swept up in the late “Big One”.

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Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Richmond – Toyota Owners 400

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 27 Apr 2013 01:11:56 +0000

Credit: Justin Edmonds/NASCAR via Getty Images

Can Kenseth Make It Back-to-Back Wins?

The Cup series is at Richmond International Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400 this weekend–the first of two stops at this track in 2013. The weekend schedule was really condensed, as we had two practice sessions on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying later on. What I don’t like this week is that the practices were held in the heat of the afternoon and we’re dealing with a Saturday night race. Therefore, I won’t be relying on practice speeds quite as much as normal. In fact, I fully expect the normal faces up front once the checkered flag waves on Saturday night. Richmond is one of those tracks that there’s really no point to deviate away from the studs. It’s also worth noting that the “new” Phoenix is somewhat comparable to Richmond, so in case you forgot how that race ended earlier this year, click here for those results. As always, ifantasyrace has you covered in terms of practice coverage. For full results/speeds, click here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour, and for in-depth notes, those can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Matt Kenseth won the pole for this year’s Toyota Owners 400 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Toyota Owners 400:

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11. Mark Martin – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Rodney Childers and company chose chassis #714 for the race at Richmond this weekend, which is the exact one they Martin used to Phoenix earlier this year to grab the pole. He led 75 laps that day in the desert but finished a disappointing 21st–although that’s not exactly surprising considering the fact that it is Mark Martin. That being said, I have a little bit more faith in the old #55 this weekend than normal, simply because Mark enjoys this track so much. It’s also a physically strenuous track and Martin is one of the most “in shape” drivers in the garage. Currently, he’s on a three-race streak of top 10s at Richmond and should have a shot at extending that to four on Saturday night. Martin actually finished 3rd here in the fall and has finished inside the top 5 in half of his last ten starts at this track. As usual, keep in mind that Martin is in no way reliable in terms of fantasy racing, and you shouldn’t over-react to how he has looked on the speed charts. In first practice on Friday, the #55 Toyota was on top of the charts, but Martin laid down that lap in qualifying trim while the rest of the field worked on race runs. He was middle-of-the-field in ten-lap average during that session (16th) and then posted the 4th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. It should be noted that most teams worked on qualifying setups in Happy Hour, though.

12. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

When it comes to Martin Truex, Jr., Richmond International Raceway is one of those race tracks where he has had some good runs, but he just needs a couple good finishes to finally break through. Martin finished 5th here back in 2008 and came home with a 7th-place finish in 2010 in his first start here with MWR, but other than that his record leaves a lot more to be desired. In fourteen career starts at Richmond, Truex owns an average finish of 24.1 and has finished on the lead lap in only five of those races. This is exactly why he is a high risk pick this week. Still, the MWR Toyotas all have speed this weekend, and it’s hard to look past how strong this #56 team has been over the past couple of weeks. Also, Truex put up another top 10 qualifying effort here on Friday and will start 9th. He started 8th and 9th in the two races here last season and ended up 25th and 21st, respectively. I do expect him to finish better than that on Saturday night, though. In terms of ten-lap average, Truex was 2nd behind Kenseth in first practice on Friday and ended up 8th on that chart in Happy Hour. Don’t expect the world out of him, but a top 15 isn’t out of the question for Martin if he can keep it on the lead lap.

13. Kevin Harvick – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Kevin Harvick said it best when he was interviewed during qualifying: they’re simply not making the right calls at the end of races to get good finishes. The #29 Chevrolet is decently fast pretty much every week, but there’s a trend going on with him at the end of races, and I personally think it started last season. That being said, Richmond is a very good track for “Happy,” and if he’s going to break out of this little “slump” (or whatever you want to call it), this will be the place. In twenty-four career starts here, Harvick has averaged a finish of 11.7 while collecting two wins and fifteen top 10 finishes. His most recent win came back in 2011 during a race in which he led over half of the laps ran and beat out Carl Edwards. At Phoenix back in March, Harvick came away with a 13th-place finish, and aside from his 9th-place effort at Las Vegas, he’s finished between 12th and 14th in every race since. Talk about consistency. He didn’t show a ridiculous amount of speed on Friday, but the #29 had the 12th-best ten-lap average and on Saturday Harvick should be good for at least a top 15 finish.

14. Jamie McMurray – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I’ve been talking highly (well, higher than usual) about this team all season long, and with their 7th-place finish at Kansas last weekend, they’re finally starting to prove me right. In the six Sprint Cup races since Phoenix back in March, where McMurray finished 22nd, the #1 team has posted three top 10 finishes and a worst result of 19th. Now they’re rolling into a track that they have been decent at recently with a little bit of momentum and a race car that has some speed in it. Jamie ranked 4th in ten-lap average during the first practice session on Friday and 6th on that chart in Happy Hour. He’ll roll off the grid in 13th on Saturday night, and if this team can keep up with the track I honestly believe he could challenge for a finish around 12th or so when it’s all said and done. McMurray finished 14th in this event one year ago and 14th in the fall race during the 2011 season after starting 2nd and leading 19 laps. He could be worth a shot in some deeper leagues.

15. Juan Montoya – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Another team I’ve had my eye on all season long is this #42 team. Earnhardt-Ganassi switched to Hendrick engines this year and I think that’s the reason for the boost in the #1 and #42 teams’ performance so far this year. Then again, when you are comparing it to 2012, just finishing the races could be seen as improvement. There’s a few additional things I like about Montoya this weekend, though. He qualified 6th, his best effort since winning the pole here back in 2011 (he led 25 laps but finished 29th), and he finished 12th back at Phoenix, a track that’s somewhat similar to Richmond. Furthermore, he ended up 12th in this race last year and has ended up inside the top 15 in four of his last six starts at Richmond. JPM posted the 10th-best ten-lap average during the first practice session on Friday and followed that up with the 2nd-best lap in Happy Hour (although that was in qualifying trim). There’s a huge amount of risk in taking Montoya this weekend but he could surprise some people on Saturday night. Then again, he could end up in the wall, too–as usual.

Just missing the top 15: Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

Sleepers To Consider For The Toyota Owners 400:

A.J. Allmendinger - I completely wrote of The Dinger after his drug thing last season, but that all seems so distant now that he’s had a few good runs with Phoenix Racing in 2013. Whether he’s been fast or not, A.J. has been able to get the finish; in three starts this season (Phoenix, Bristol, and Fontana), Allmendinger hasn’t finished worse than 16th, and he even came home with a solid 11th-place effort at Phoenix back in March–although I think that late caution helped him out quite a bit. Still, it’s the finish that matters in most fantasy leagues. Moving on, believe it or not, A.J. hasn’t been too terrible here at Richmond over his career, especially lately. In his last five starts here (he obviously missed last fall’s event), he hasn’t finished worse than 17th and actually picked up top 10 finishes here in 2010 and 2011. In this race last season, Allmendinger started 4th and ended up a decent 16th in the #22 Penske Dodge. On Friday, the #51 Chevrolet was 8th on the ten-lap average chart in first practice and A.J. posted the 6th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. He had a bad draw in qualifying on Friday and will start the Toyota Owners 400 in 24th, but I really think he could challenge for a top 15 on Saturday night. It’s all going to come down to the team and the equipment, which aren’t exactly strong points, I admit (and that’s why there’s some risk there). Still, Allmendinger would be a nice pick this week in deeper leagues.

Marcos Ambrose - The Tasmanian has always been a decent sleeper pick when the series stops at Richmond International Raceway. In his first ever start here back in 2009, Marcos came home with a respectable finish of 11th, and then backed that up in 2010 with 9th and 5th-place efforts. Once he moved over to Richard Petty Motorsports in 2011, though, the finishes went downhill. In the first three events, Ambrose finished between 21st and 23rd in each (hey, at least he’s consistent) and then finally “broke through” (for lack of a better term) with a 15th-place finish here last fall. This week, the #9 Ford doesn’t look overly impressive, but Marcos qualified 11th on Saturday and will have a little bit of track position to start off the Toyota Owners 400. He ended up 18th back at Phoenix in March and posted the 13th-best ten-lap average during the first practice session on Friday. If this teams hits on something with the setup to start the race, I think he could challenge for a top 15, but heading into the race I have him pegged for a top 20.

Driver To Avoid For The Toyota Owners 400:

Greg Biffle - The Biff already isn’t very good at this track and his 33rd-place qualifying effort just put the nail in the coffin for the #16 Ford in my eyes. He’ll probably run top 20 on Saturday night but that’s not the kind of finish you want out of a driver like Biffle in fantasy. He ended up 9th here last fall but that has been his only top 10 at this track since 2006. Greg finished 17th back at Phoenix in March and we should expect a similar result out of this #16 team here in Richmond on Saturday night.

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Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Kansas – STP 400

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 20 Apr 2013 18:37:30 +0000

Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

A First For Kyle Busch?

After this race last season, Kansas Speedway was repaved so really the only data we have on the “new” track is the Hollywood Casino 400 here last fall–Matt Kenseth won, by the way. On Friday, Matt also won the pole for Sunday’s STP 400, barely beating out his ex-teammate Carl Edwards. The full starting lineup for the race this Sunday can be found by clicking here. As far as practice goes, the schedule this weekend was a bit different than what we’ve gotten used to this season. There was one session before qualifying on Friday (I consider those speeds worthless) and then two practices early Saturday. For the results of those three sessions, click here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. As always, ifantasyrace has in-depth notes for each practice as well, and those are here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 – Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The STP 400:

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11. Paul Menard – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Menard and the #27 car have been solid sleeper picks all season long and that looks to be the case once again this weekend. In Practice #2 on Saturday, Paul was inside the top 10 in terms of fast lap, and in Happy Hour he had the third-best ten-lap average despite never really laying down a fast lap. He qualified 12th on Friday, which is a good start, and it’s worth remembering that Menard finished 3rd here last fall (the first race on the “new” Kansas pavement) after leading six laps. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 here since 2009 and that shouldn’t change on Sunday. Depending on how this team keeps up with the track, Paul could have top 10 potential when it’s all said and done. Remember, he finished 10th at Las Vegas earlier this season, which has been the only other 1.5-mile track we’ve raced at during the day.

12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Kansas is Clint Bowyer’s home track and although he has never won here, he has had some good showings in the past. On the new surface here last fall, Clint qualified the #15 Toyota in 3rd and went on to finish 6th after leading five laps. That was the first time he led here since back in 2006. In nine career starts here, Bowyer has amassed an average finish of 14th and has finished inside the top 10 on four separate occasions. In this event last season, he lost an engine and ended up finishing 36th. You can’t predict mechanical issues but I’m not too worried about that happening this weekend. What’s most concerning is that on the intermediate tracks this season, Bowyer has finished 27th (Las Vegas), 35th (Fontana), and 15th (Texas). Keep in mind, however, that the #15 was very strong in Fontana but had an engine issue. If you’re a fan of streaks, you should look at Clint’s finishes in 2013 thus far. Since Daytona, he has one finish outside of the top 10, and then one finish inside the top 10 the next week. If that continues on Sunday, Bowyer should be a pretty solid fantasy pick, and it doesn’t hurt that his car is decently fast, too. He wasn’t exactly happy with his car in Happy Hour but you could look at that in a positive light by saying that the track is probably going to be much difference during the race on Sunday.

13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This team now has had two bad weeks in a row, so I’m sure fantasy racers are getting a little concerned when picking the #88 right about now, but the fact of the matter is that this team has put out top 10 cars every single week this year, and this weekend at Kansas is no exception. Sometimes bad lucks happens, and unfortunately for this team (and Junior’s fantasy owners) it has happened twice in a row. Earnhardt struggled in qualifying just like the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports clan, but he’s used to coming from mid-pack, so I’m not exactly worried about it. In the first practice session, he went out and posted a top 10 lap speed, and in Happy Hour the #88 ended up 14th-fastest. As far as Junior’s history at Kansas goes, he’s never raced on this “new surface” (he didn’t race the fall race last year due to concussions) but he did finish 7th in the spring race and ended up 2nd in the spring race during the 2011 season. Dale has finished inside the top 15 in eight of his thirteen starts at Kansas and he should make it nine of fourteen on Sunday. There’s a little more risk than usual when picking the #88 this weekend (in my opinion) but then again this is very good team and their bad luck will turn around soon. You can’t be concerned with mechanical issues or team mistakes, nor can you try and predict them.

14. Sam Hornish, Jr. – Starts 4th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

One of the biggest surprises in qualifying on Friday was Sam Hornish, Jr. and the #12 Ford. He ended up 4th-fastest and while I don’t think he’ll finish quite that high, a solid finish isn’t out of the question for Sam. He actually raced here in both races last season and came home with finishes of 19th and 26th. In deep leagues and allocation leagues, Hornish should be a great pick on Sunday. He posted the 2nd-fastest ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday and in happy hour he was 11th on the speed chart with the 2nd-best ten-lap average again. The Penske Fords have been strong on the intermediate tracks all season long so I really think that Sam will have a fast car. It’s all going to come down to how he races and whether or not his pit crew is up to par. Hornish was 12th in the Kansas race in the Nationwide series last season and has been solid on the intermediate tracks in that series in 2013, too.

15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

There are quite a few drivers that I consider almost tied for this 15th-place ranking this weekend, but I’m going to give it to Jamie McMurray because I like how consistent this team has been this weekend. The #1 Chevrolet had the best ten-lap average in both practice sessions on Saturday and Jamie put down the 13th and 15th-fastest laps. Last year at Kansas–which was a very down year for this team–McMurray ended up 14th and 15th, and he’s been pretty good on the intermediate tracks this season, too (his 13th-place effort at Las Vegas is what sticks in my mind the most). Jamie Mac has snuck up one some people in races this season and I think he could do it once again on Sunday. Earnhardt-Ganassi has a stronger engine supplier this year, and it’s showing–then again their teams couldn’t get much worse than what they were in 2012.

Just missing the top 15: Ryan Newman, Marcos Ambrose, Mark Martin, Brian Vickers, Kevin Harvick

Sleepers To Consider For The STP 400:

Elliott Sadler – Sunday will mark Sadler’s first Cup race at a track other than Daytona since he was racing full-time in 2010. The good news is that he has been running pretty well in the Nationwide Series and he’s in solid JGR equipment this weekend with the #81 car. Elliott has made ten career Cup starts at Kansas Speedway and his best finish has been 4th (back in 2004). He’ll roll off the grid in 24th on Sunday and could challenge for a top 20 when it’s all said and done. The only concern I have is that he might be running an experimental engine/setup and those tend to blow up more often than the normal motors. You can’t predict engine failures, though. In deeper leagues Sadler would be a great pick, in my opinion.

Casey Mears – My sleeper pick of Casey Mears at Texas last weekend really backfired on me, but I guess that’s why they call it a sleeper pick, right? The fact of the matter is that this team has finished in the teens more often than not thus far in 2013, and although I don’t see Casey getting quite that far up on Sunday, a mid-20s finish isn’t out of the reach for this team. In this race last season, Mears ended up 26th despite being four laps down. At Vegas back in March (the other daytime 1.5-mile race this year), this team came home with a 29th-place finish, and will probably end up around there on Sunday in Kansas as well. If there’s a bunch of cautions and the #13 can stay on the lead lap, though, Mears may surprise some people again this weekend.

Who To Avoid For The STP 400:

Jeff Gordon – There are so many reasons that you should avoid Jeff Gordon this weekend that I’m not even going to take the time to list them all out. Really the only track that he’s been good and been able to get the finish is Martinsville, and that’s pretty much a given for this guy. Week in and week out this team just runs into bad luck or something breaks mechanically. This weekend, Jeff backed it into the wall during his qualifying lap and the #24 team had to bring out the backup car. In the two practice sessions on Saturday, they searched for speed for the entire two hours and never found it. It’s not a good sign when David Stremme is consistently putting up faster laps than you in practice. Stay away from the #24 until further notice.

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Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Texas – NRA 500

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 13 Apr 2013 01:28:20 +0000

Credit: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images for Texas Motor Speedway

Two in a Row for Johnson?

This week the Sprint Cup series is at Texas Motor Speedway for the first night race of the season. This track is 1.5-miles in length, and so far the only track we’ve been to with the Gen-6 car at that length has been Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The two venues are somewhat comparable, but not really. Because this is the first night race, NASCAR decided to give the teams extra track time in the form of two testing sessions on Thursday (totaling 3.5 hours). Those speeds can be found here: Test #1 – Test #2. On Friday, two official practice sessions were held, and those speeds can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Additionally, ifantasyrace has you covered with in-depth notes for each practice, and those are here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. In my opinion, Test #2 had the track conditions closest to race conditions and are the most relevant speeds to look at before the race. The Busch brothers will bring the field to the green for Saturday’s NRA 500, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The NRA 500:

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11. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The #56 Toyota has shown some speed here at Texas this weekend, but it’s hard to trust Truex right now because of how inconsistent and disappointing he’s been in 2013 thus far. That being said, you can’t forget that this team was one of the best on the intermediate tracks in 2012 all season long. Additionally, Martin has finished 13th or better in each of the last three Texas Sprint Cup races and he won the pole and led 69 laps in this event last year. After posting the fastest lap (and 5th-best ten-lap average) in Practice #1 on Friday, Truex followed that up with the 5th-best lap in Happy Hour and 4th-best ten-lap average. I don’t think he’s going to be able to stay up near his 5th-place qualifying position all night on Saturday, but a top 10 isn’t out of the question for this #56 team at all. There’s still risk there, though, so keep that in mind before locking in.

12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Bowyer was another one of those drivers that got a bad qualifying draw and it ended up hurting him. He’ll have quite a few cars to pass when the green flag waves on Saturday night (but less than Biffle), and it’s a good thing that passing looks easier here than at some of the other races this season in the Gen-6 car. Believe it or not, Texas is one of Bowyer’s better tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit. In fourteen career starts here, Clint has recorded eight top 10 finishes and an average finish of 12.8. When you look at his success here recently, though, it gets even better. In the ten events here since the 2008 season, Bowyer has recorded seven top 10s with a best finish of 2nd back in 2011. The #15 Toyota was 12th-fastest in Happy Hour and had the 6th-best ten-lap average, too. During Test #2 on Thursday–which is the most similar session of the weekend compared to what race-time track conditions wil be–Clint had the 3rd-best ten-lap average right behind Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. He’ll challenge for a top 10 this weekend but I don’t see Bowyer going for the win for the second week in a row. Still, he’ll be a solid pick in most leagues.

13. Aric Almirola – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Aric Almirola said during practice on Friday that the #43 Ford was really fast this weekend, which I thought was the typical driver talk in front of the cameras that we get from almost everyone in the garage. But then he went out and posted the 3rd-best lap in Happy Hour, and despite having a less-than-favorable draw in qualifying, qualified 3rd. Last fall, Aric got his career-best finish at Texas, coming home 15th, and in the two intermediate races in 2013 thus far (Las Vegas and Fontana), Almirola has finished 16th and 14th. Texas Motor Speedway has been a strength for the Fords over the years, and that’s just another reason to like the #43 as a sleeper pick on Saturday night. As usual, Almirola isn’t exactly the most reliable in terms of fantasy value, but I think he has a bunch of upside this weekend and could surprise some people. Richard Petty Motorsports tends to go on streaks, so when they’re strong it’s usually a good idea to use them.

14. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Starts 17th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

This is an awesome track for the Roush-Fenway organization, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. tends to excel at these intermediate venues, so what’s not to like? He’ll start the NRA 500 on Saturday night in 17th place and should be in the top 20 all night long. The #17 Ford was fast in the testing sessions on Thursday but then regressed a little bit on Friday. Still, Stenhouse ended Happy Hour with the 9th-fastest lap and has posted top 20s in both intermediate races this season thus far. It might be a little bit of a reach to think he could pull off a top 10 on Saturday, but a top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this team. In allocation leagues (like Yahoo!), I still think you should save Stenhouse for later on in the season, plus there are quite a other picks that should be good, too (Dillon, Bayne, Mears).

15. Paul Menard – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Paul Menard is still quietly putting together a solid start to the 2013 season and still hasn’t finished worse than 21st this year—and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night. The #27 has posted top 10s in both intermediate track races so far in 2013, and they could have a shot at getting another here Saturday night if they play their cards right. In thirteen career starts at this race track, Menard has only two top 10s to his credit, but on the bright side they have both come within the last five races. He finished 18th and 27th here last season, but should do better this time around. The #27 is becoming a more popular pick when it comes to sleeper drivers on the weekend, and for good reason. The only concerning I can think of is Kevin Harvick’s engine problem and whether or not that will go through the entire RCR organization. I don’t think it will, but I’m not mechanic.

Sleepers To Consider For The NRA 500:

Casey Mears - One of the most pleasant surprises thus far in the 2013 season has been Casey Mears and the #13 Germain Racing team. After his 16th-place finish at Martinsville, Mears has now finished 16th or better in each of the last three races and in four of the last five. You really can’t ask for more out of a low-tier team like this, and you know the old saying in fantasy racing: use ‘em while their hot–and I definitely do not expect this team to keep this up all season. The #13 car was impressive during the tests (21st in Test #1 and 8th in Test #2) and followed that up with quick speeds in the two “official” practice sessions on Friday, too (10th and 20th). I fully expect Casey Mears to contend for another top 20 on Saturday night, if not a top 20.

Trevor Bayne - Texas Motor Speedway is one of Bayne’s best tracks and he can usually be counted on for a top 25 finish when he does get into the Cup car for the Wood Brothers. He finished 23rd in this car back in March at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and in four career starts here at Texas, Trevor has three finishes of 17th and an average finish of 20.2. I think there are some other sleepers that would be a better pick than the #21 on Saturday night, but I wouldn’t blame you for taking Bayne, either, especially in the deeper leagues.

Austin Dillon - The #51 car has been pretty solid all season long (worst finish has been 22nd) and there’s no reason to believe that that won’t continue this weekend with Austin Dillon behind the wheel. He was in this car back in March at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and ended up 21st after starting 27th. During the test sessions here at Texas on Thursday, Dillon was one of the most consistent cars on track: in Test #1, he ended up 11th, and in Test #2 he was 7th-fastest. In Happy Hour on Friday, Austin was 14th on the speed chart. There’s always concern with the reliability of the equipment with this Phoenix Racing team, but they’ve completed all but one lap this season so that concern is becoming less relevant with every passing week. I expect Austin Dillon to challenge for a top 20 on Saturday night.

Those To Avoid For The NRA 500:

Joey Logano - The simple rule with Joey Logano is avoid him whenever he’s not fast off the truck, and that’s the exact case this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. The highest the #22 Ford was on any of the four speed sheets on Thursday and Friday was 19th, it seemed like they almost got worse as the Friday practices went on. Joey ended up 19th and 11th in the two Texas races last season but I honestly think he’ll have a hard time cracking the top 20 this weekend–at least at the beginning of the race. The Penske teams tend to improve as the race goes on, though, so Logano could surprise me on Saturday night, but I would still avoid him at all costs in fantasy.

Mark Martin - Usually, Mark Martin is really fast in practice and then ends up fading during the race. This week, he hasn’t been entirely impressive and is starting mid-pack. I’m not saying that he won’t be able to compete for a decent finish on Saturday night, but I’ve written off Mark Martin until he can prove to me that he can be reliable. I think it’s much too risky to pick him even though he consistently puts up fast laps.

The post Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Texas – NRA 500 appeared first on ifantasyrace.com.

Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Martinsville – STP Gas Booster 500

Jordan McAbee — Sat, 06 Apr 2013 20:48:07 +0000

Credit: By Jerry Markland, Getty Images for NASCAR

Martinsville isn’t a throw away weekend for fantasy racers. This is a high attrition track but with the ifantasyrace advantage you can get the edge on your competition. The series has seen plenty of track time this weekend and we have you covered despite the fact it’s largely untelevised. To find out what happened on the track make sure you read our practice notes (Practice #1 Notes, Practice #2 Notes and Happy Hour Notes). Also make sure you check out the practice speeds to find out who’s fast (Practice #1 Speeds, Practice #2 Speeds and Happy Hour Speeds). If you’re looking for 10 lap averages make sure you check out our Martinsville 10 Lap Average Big Board fantasy NASCAR Tool.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Martinsville STP Gas Booster 500:
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11. Carl Edwards – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group

With all the hoopla going on in the Sprint Cup Series as of late, it’s easy to overlook the fact that Carl Edwards has three top 5s in the last four races, including his win at Phoenix. I don’t think he’ll finish that high in the STP Gas Booster 500 on Sunday (he only has one career top 5 here in seventeen starts) but a top 10 isn’t out of the question for Edward and this #99 team (they don’t call him Concrete Carl for nothing). Over his career at The Paperclip, Edwards has averaged a finish of right around 16th with a best effort of 3rd, which came back in 2008. He ended up 11th in this event one year ago and that was after a 9th-place finish in the fall 2011 race—although to be fair, that was during the Chase and nothing could stop Carl from good finishes at that time that year. Still, don’t be surprised to see the #99 have a solid run all day on Sunday and come out of Martinsville with another solid finish.

12. Joey Logano – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group

Assuming there’s no payback going on Sunday (just don’t block Stewart, JoLo), Logano should get a decent finish in the STP Gas Booster 500. There’s still a lot of risk there and I wouldn’t necessarily recommend picking him, but I wouldn’t blame you if you do because the #22 looks pretty good this weekend and Penske is decently good at this track. In eight career starts here, Joey has averaged a finish of 15.3 with a best finish of 2nd. I wouldn’t expect another great run like this team had in Fontana, but a top 15 isn’t out of the question. Logano has finished 16th or better in five of his last seven Martinsville races and hasn’t ended up worse than 23rd in that span of races.

13. Kevin Harvick – Starts 21st – Yahoo! A Group

The #29 team had a rough year at Martinsville Speedway last year, but in fantasy racing sometimes you have to overlook a couple races and focus on the big picture. I remember the spring event quite vividly last year, as Harvick was my sure-fire pick to win. He led 21 laps and faded early, ending up a disappointing 19th. Yes, I still hold a little bit of a grudge. In the fall race, Harvick finished 32nd, but he did have engine issues. As I said before, though, the big picture is what is important. Going into the 2012 season, Kevin had three straight top 5s at this track including a win in 2011. Additionally, in eight of last eleven Martinsville races, Harvick has finished 11th or better. And he should have a good shot at making is nine of the last twelve on Sunday in the STP Gas Booster 500.

14. Kurt Busch – Starts 19th – Yahoo! B Group

I’ve been hard on the elder Busch brother over the last couple years, but this #78 team has two top 5s in a row, and I’ve taken notice. Last fall, Kurt was in this car in the fall Martinsville race and finished a solid 15th after qualifying 19th. Additionally, Kurt has ended up 16th or better in four of his last five starts at this track. That isn’t very impressive for most drivers, but Kurt Busch isn’t very good here and that’s worth noting. The momentum from the recent top 5s could very well give a boost to this team on Sunday. Will they get another top 5 in the STP Gas Booster 500? I don’t think so, but then again I didn’t predict the two at Bristol or Fontana, either. Regan Smith ended up 16th in this event last season while driving the #78 car.

15. Aric Almirola – Starts 34th – Yahoo! B Group

I really like Almirola in the #43 as a nice sleeper option this weekend in Martinsville. First off, he has finished 16th or better in all but one race in 2013 thus far, and in his last two starts at The Paperclip (last season) he pulled off finishes of 8th and 4th. In fact, since joining Richard Petty Motorsports, Almirola hasn’t finished worse than 21st at this track, which makes his 27.0 average finish come to question. It’s worth noting that in most of his starts here with DEI and Phoenix Racing from 2007 to 2010, Aric ran into some sort of problem in most races, mostly mechanical. He still qualified 3rd in his second career starts at this track, which is a little impressive (to me anyway). I’m not sure Almirola can continue his little run of top 10s at Martinsville on Sunday, but that doesn’t mean a top 15 is out of the question at all.

The post Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Martinsville – STP Gas Booster 500 appeared first on ifantasyrace.com.